This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 19, 2016. Now that we know what the general-election matchups will be, a couple of thoughts are in order. First, while I give Hillary Clinton a 75 percent chance of beating Donald Trump in November, the possibility that it will be a pretty close race is high and rising. Clinton’s negatives are alarming. She has a high floor and a low ceiling and, as they say about stocks, a narrow trading range. There are a lot of really angry people out there, particularly working-class white voters, most in manufacturing areas heavily affected by trade policies that they blame on the Clintons. Her political shortcomings make it difficult for her to win by a big margin. At the same time, Trump’s negatives are so high that he can make it fairly close but is unlikely to win 50 percent of the popular tally and, more importantly, a majority of the electoral votes. While Trump will never run a traditional campaign and seems to be dismissive of voter-turnout technologies such as data analytics

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