It's human nature: People's ideas about presidential races are largely shaped by their perceptions of the personalities and images of the candidates. Both voters and the media become preoccupied, even obsessed, with these factors, to the exclusion of any others. The truth is, however, that big, fundamental forces have considerable—indeed, probably greater—impact on the outcome of a presidential race. As much fun as it is to dwell on the public perceptions of each of the candidates, in many ways this election is more likely to boil down to the relative impact of shifting American demographics versus the power of the idea that it is "time for a change." These days, those who do think beyond personality seem mainly focused on the demographic argument. I had one person recently ask me if I agreed with the following statement: "If the Republican presidential nominee in 2016 gets 40 percent of the Latino vote, they will win; less than 40 percent, they will lose." My response was that, while there are other significant variables beyond the Latino vote, it was as important as

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