This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on October 28, 2016 The FBI may have injected last-minute uncertainty into the presidential race, but with eight days to go, the contours of Hillary Clinton’s coalition are coming into sharper focus. It’s not yet clear whether it will match the breadth of President Obama’s coalition, which was sufficient for a majority in both 2008 and 2012. But even if it doesn’t, it could be sufficient for a plurality. Clinton’s voters overwhelmingly overlap with Obama’s, but there are important distinctions. Her support among Latinos appears stronger and more intense. On the other hand, African-American enthusiasm has dipped compared with that in 2012 — a surprising and disquieting development for Democrats who believed Trump’s racial appeals and flirtations with the birther movement would generate more urgency. As polls have shown all year, the education and gender gaps in this race are likely to be wider than any we have seen in modern history. Clinton’s coalition is more dependent on college-educated white voters and less dependent on whites without degrees than Obama’s was in 2008
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