This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 23, 2016 This presidential race is very, very close, with the poll averages showing Hillary Clinton nursing a small lead. The RealClearPolitics.com average puts her ahead of Donald Trump by just 1.1 points, 41 percent to 39.9 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson third at 8.8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein fourth with 2.9 percent. The RCP two-way gives Clinton a slightly wider 2.1-point lead over Trump, 45.5 to 43.4 percent. The Huffington Post’s Pollster.com average gives Clinton a bigger edge, 4.1 points, 45.9 percent to 41.8 percent. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com “polls-only” model gives Clinton a 58.8 percent chance of winning to Trump’s 41.2 percent; his “polls-plus” model, which incorporates past election data, demographics, and other factors, pegs Clinton’s chances at 57.8 percent and Trump’s at 42.2 percent. The New York Times’ “Upshot” statistical team is considerably bolder, giving Clinton a 73 percent chance of winning. There should be a deluge of new, pre-debate polls over the next few days. The Sept. 16-19 NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Clinton
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