This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 23, 2016 This pres­id­en­tial race is very, very close, with the poll av­er­ages show­ing Hil­lary Clin­ton nurs­ing a small lead. The Real­Clear­Polit­ics.com av­er­age puts her ahead of Don­ald Trump by just 1.1 points, 41 per­cent to 39.9 per­cent, with Liber­tari­an Gary John­son third at 8.8 per­cent and Green Party can­did­ate Jill Stein fourth with 2.9 per­cent. The RCP two-way gives Clin­ton a slightly wider 2.1-point lead over Trump, 45.5 to 43.4 per­cent. The Huff­ing­ton Post’s Poll­ster.com av­er­age gives Clin­ton a big­ger edge, 4.1 points, 45.9 per­cent to 41.8 per­cent. Nate Sil­ver’s Fiv­eThirtyEight.com “polls-only” mod­el gives Clin­ton a 58.8 per­cent chance of win­ning to Trump’s 41.2 per­cent; his “polls-plus” mod­el, which in­cor­por­ates past elec­tion data, demo­graph­ics, and oth­er factors, pegs Clin­ton’s chances at 57.8 per­cent and Trump’s at 42.2 per­cent. The New York Times’ “Up­shot” stat­ist­ic­al team is con­sid­er­ably bolder, giv­ing Clin­ton a 73 per­cent chance of win­ning. There should be a de­luge of new, pre-de­bate polls over the next few days. The Sept. 16-19 NBC News/Wall Street Journ­al poll shows Clin­ton

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