This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 1, 2016 The word “volatile” doesn’t begin to describe the fight for a Senate majority this year. With the current split of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats, the Democrats need a net gain of four seats if they retain the White House (the incoming vice president would break the tie in that event) and five seats if Republicans win the presidential race. The questions that political analysts are asking right now are whether the race is even more volatile than we thought, and whether the playing field is larger than originally anticipated. New polling provides some evidence that the answer to both questions is yes. Let’s begin by reviewing how the Senate race has looked over the last 18 months. I had a hard time imagining Democrats picking up a net of less than three or more than six Senate seats. The best outcome for Republicans would be a scant 51-49 majority, and the worst case would give Democrats an edge of 52 to 48. In short, the Senate would likely

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