This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 24, 2016 It’s easy to understand why Republicans are so frustrated about this presidential election. Both history and a highly vulnerable presumptive Democratic nominee argue strongly that this should be a very winnable election for them. Yet things don’t look very rosy for the GOP right now. There is a pendulum effect in presidential elections. After a party has held the White House for two terms, voters usually feel it’s time for a change. In 1960, after eight years under Republican Dwight Eisenhower, Democrat John Kennedy won. After eight years under Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, Republican Richard Nixon won in 1968. After two terms under Nixon and Gerald Ford, Democrat Jimmy Carter won in 1976. After Bill Clinton’s eight years, George W. Bush won in 2000. After eight years under Bush, Barack Obama won in 2008. All told, the pattern has held in five of six elections since World War II. The lone exception was 1988. After eight years under President Reagan, his vice president, George H.W. Bush, served one term
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