A question I often am asked is: "Who would you bet on to win the presidency?" Personally, I don't bet on politics, but here's my current take on the 2016 presidential race—with, of course, the caveat that we don't know which campaigns will turn out the best in terms of organization, strategy, tactics, or execution, much less which candidates will step on land mines along the way. The Democratic nomination appears fairly straightforward. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is now the prohibitive favorite. If her early stumbles during her book tour, or remarks like the one she made about being "dead broke" after leaving the White House, or impulses such as her inexplicable need to tell an audience of car dealers how many years it had been since she was behind the wheel, were to continue, that could change. (The question is whether she is merely rusty or whether she has truly lost her fastball.) For now, though, let's say there's a 90 percent chance that she'll win the Democratic nomination, and a 10 percent chance that the nod

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