While the fight for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination looks like it will be a wild roller-coaster ride, the Democratic contest, at least today, looks like a pretty boring affair. History suggests that in open presidential nomination contests, front-runners rarely go from the starting line to the finish without losing a few primaries or caucuses along the way. Usually the leader stumbles, or a protest vote develops somewhere in the process, or another candidate catches a bit of luck or sparks a bit of interest. Typically, an element of doubt creeps in at some point, even if the front-runner ultimately recovers and wins the nomination. But more so in some races than in others. In 2012, many of us assumed early on that Mitt Romney would win the GOP nomination, and he of course ended up with it—but it turned out to be a pretty rocky trip. In the 2008 Democratic contest, Hillary Clinton started off as the front-runner. Barack Obama upset her in Iowa, but then she won in New Hampshire. Back and forth it went, with Obama coming

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