Both the GOP and Democratic races will turn on whether emotion tops organization. The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night can be expected to provide some clarity in the contests for the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations, but don’t expect too much. One way to look at the results is to think of what outcomes would surprise you, and change your assumptions about the state of each contest and where each is headed. Anything contrary to your expectations should be considered potentially significant. In the Republican race, the fight between front-runner Donald Trump and Ted Cruz is expected to be very close, though most assume that Trump has an edge. If either won by, say, five or more points, that would be significant. If Trump won by a healthy margin, many (though not me) think that given his big lead in New Hampshire polling, he would be unstoppable. Conversely, if Cruz wins by a handful of points, Trump’s big Granite State advantage could seriously erode. Part of Trump’s appeal is that he is seen by his supporters as a winner, a
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