Both the GOP and Demo­crat­ic races will turn on wheth­er emo­tion tops or­gan­iz­a­tion. The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night can be ex­pec­ted to provide some clar­ity in the con­tests for the Demo­crat­ic and Re­pub­lic­an pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­tions, but don’t ex­pect too much. One way to look at the res­ults is to think of what out­comes would sur­prise you, and change your as­sump­tions about the state of each con­test and where each is headed. Any­thing con­trary to your ex­pect­a­tions should be con­sidered po­ten­tially sig­ni­fic­ant. In the Re­pub­lic­an race, the fight between front-run­ner Don­ald Trump and Ted Cruz is ex­pec­ted to be very close, though most as­sume that Trump has an edge. If either won by, say, five or more points, that would be sig­ni­fic­ant. If Trump won by a healthy mar­gin, many (though not me) think that giv­en his big lead in New Hamp­shire polling, he would be un­stop­pable. Con­versely, if Cruz wins by a hand­ful of points, Trump’s big Gran­ite State ad­vant­age could ser­i­ously erode. Part of Trump’s ap­peal is that he is seen by his sup­port­ers as a win­ner, a

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