This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 9, 2016 There’s no doubt that the presidential race has tightened up, but the operative question is whether Don­ald Trump has caught up or even overtaken Hillary Clinton. Polls are coming in by the bushel, some traditionally reliable, others of dubious quality. The CNN/ORC poll released on Tuesday caught a lot of attention. The sample of all registered voters showed Clinton ahead by 3 points, 44 to 41 percent, in the four-way trial heat, which was very much in line with most other polls. But among likely voters, Trump edged ahead by 2 points, 45 to 43 percent. Granted, we are talking about margins well within the polls’ +/-3.5 percent margin of error, but it was only the second time since May that one of the big six, brand-name surveys—ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times, CNN/ORC, Fox News, Pew Research, and NBC/Wall Street Journal—showed Trump ahead in a four-way heat (CNN/ORC had him in front by 5 points in late July). A total of 73 polls with four-way measurements were covered during

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