Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. My colleague was bold, giving Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker a 35 percent chance of getting the nod, Sen. Marco Rubio a 30 percent chance, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush a 25 percent chance, and "someone else" a 10 percent chance—specifically saying that this included Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich. I confess to having been less courageous, giving 25 percent chances each to Bush, Rubio, and Walker, a 10 percent shot to Cruz, and a 15 percent chance to "who knows?" Another well-regarded political analyst separately (and even more boldly) pegged Walker's chances at 40 percent, Bush's at 35 percent, and Rubio's at 25 percent. So what does this suggest? My interpretation would be that, first, this is a contest that is very much in doubt, with no single, dominant player, no "one to beat" this early out. This is unusual for Republicans, who traditionally have behaved in a very hierarchical
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