This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 21, 2016. With a contested Republican National Convention as the most likely outcome this unlikely primary season, Republicans are trying to calculate what it would mean to have Donald Trump at the top of their ticket. Polling at this point shows Hillary Clinton trailing John Kasich by an average of 7.4 points, Marco Rubio by four points, and effectively tied with Ted Cruz. But Clinton beats Trump by 6.3 percentage points. A good case can be made that Trump is possibly the only Republican who can’t beat Clinton. Consider the effect on GOP Senate and House majorities. A Trump-led ticket would be disorienting for Republicans. Just as the Democratic Party has been trending more liberal since President Bill Clinton left office 15 years ago, the Republican Party has been moving to the right just since President George W. Bush left office just over seven years ago. Not long ago, many conservative Democrats in Congress were further to the right than many liberal Republicans. But that ideological overlap has disappeared. Each of
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.