This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on July 7, 2016 It could be said that the 2016 presidential election is once again a question of economics versus demographics. On one hand, wage stagnation and a narrow economic recovery have contributed to the anxiety that fueled Donald Trump’s rise. But if he wants to beat Hillary Clinton, he’ll need to swim against a powerful demographic tide that continues to aid Democrats in the race for 270 electoral votes. On June 23, the Census Bureau unveiled its latest population estimates for states and counties by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. According to the data, the non-Hispanic white share of the nation’s voting age population fell from 66.6 percent to 64.6 percent over the past four years.
Technically, this data covers the period from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2015, but that’s as good a metric as we have for gauging the changing complexion of the electorate between the 2012 and 2016 elections. (It’s also important to note that these estimates include non-citizens, who are ineligible to vote.
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