This article was originally published at FiveThirtyEight on May 17, 2016. When most people think of battleground America, they think of Florida and Ohio, two of only three states (along with Nevada) that have voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1996. They tend not to think of Pennsylvania as a classic “swing state” — it has voted for the Democrat in every election since 1992, and it didn’t even crack the top 10 in 2012 campaign ad spending. But in 2016, Pennsylvania could be the keystone of the Electoral College and the ultimate arbiter of whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton resides at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The term “swing state” can be a bit fuzzy. For example, we often call Michigan and North Carolina swing states. But if a Republican is winning Michigan, they’ve likely already won the election; the same is true for a Democrat winning North Carolina. In other words, after all the sturm und drang, these states tend to be icing on the winner’s cake. But a few years ago, Nate Silver articulated a
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