An early wave of GOP retirements has dampened the party’s chances of reclaiming the majority in the House. Already this cycle, 14 Republicans have retired, compared to four Democrats. Some of these retirements come in safe seats and members simply don’t want the hassle of being in the minority, but some retirements put GOP-held seats in increasing danger. We previously identified Texas as the state most likely to produce 2020’s House battlegrounds, and the retirements of three Texas Republicans who were expected to face tough re-election battles ensures battleground status. Democrats still hold more vulnerable states, but if GOP retirements continue at this pace, we might be in for a more competitive cycle than predicted. Republican retirements mark Texas as the critical battleground for the House and serve as a potential bellwether for results at the Senate and Presidential level. We expect spending on advertising in the House to double from $64 million in 2018 to $115 million in 2020. The retirement of GOP U.S. Rep. Will Hurd in TX-23, who narrowly survived two difficult campaigns, means that this seat
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