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Charlie Cook
Analysis by Charlie Cook
National Politics
In Atlanta, All Thoughts on Iowa
If you are Pete Buttigieg, you’d better get ready for your turn in the hot seat and expect incoming fire at Wednesday’s debate—probably sooner. The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll of likely…
Charlie Cook
November 22, 2019
National Politics
Democrats Were Both Lucky and Good in the Off-Year Elections
With Saturday’s gubernatorial runoff in Louisiana, the 2019 odd-year elections are now in the record books. Did Democrats capturing the governorship of Kentucky and reelecting a governor in Louisiana…
Charlie Cook
November 22, 2019
National Politics
An Inflection Point in the Democratic Race?
In observing the Democratic nomination contest over the last couple weeks, one wonders whether we’ve hit an inflection point. Has the trajectory of the race sharply changed, or is it just a pause,…
Charlie Cook
November 15, 2019
National Politics
Democrats Need to Mind the Gap Between Their Base and Swing Voters
Sometimes things can seem contradictory but are not necessarily so. A variety of polls released this week on the 2020 presidential race painted very different pictures of President Trump’s odds for…
Charlie Cook
November 12, 2019
National Politics
What Does Bloomberg's 2020 Entrance Mean?
Charlie Cook
November 8, 2019
National Politics
Unpacking a Panoply of Polls
It’s hard to determine where to start a political discussion these days. Impeachment? The Democratic presidential-nomination contest? President Trump’s prospects for reelection? The calendar can…
Charlie Cook
November 8, 2019
National Politics
Poking Holes in the Conventional Wisdom
Quite often when a conventional wisdom takes hold, it is often an overly simplistic way of looking at things. But there is a value for people in and around politics to have a set of solid assumptions…
Charlie Cook
November 5, 2019
National Politics
How Democrats Come Back Again
For those political aficionados capable of prying themselves away from cable news and the web, two quite interesting but very different books are just out. RIP GOP: How the New America is Dooming…
Charlie Cook
November 1, 2019
National Politics
In 2020, the Triumph of Experience Over Hope?
The most popular parlor game in town these days is, “Who will win the Democratic presidential nomination next year?” I had the pleasure of playing this game at a recent lunch with four of the most…
Charlie Cook
October 29, 2019
National Politics
Little Reason to Think Republicans Will Abandon Trump Now
Despite the saying—usually misattributed to Albert Einstein—that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” it is a bit rash to declare crazy those who…
Charlie Cook
October 25, 2019
National Politics
New Fronts in Old War
There have been a host of big developments in the political world over the last 10 days—possible inflection points in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, the general election, or…
Charlie Cook
October 22, 2019
National Politics
President Trump as Preshrunk Jeans
The more things change, the more things stay the same. With the Sept. 18 disclosure by The Washington Post that President Trump urged the president of the Ukraine to investigate Hunter Biden’s…
Charlie Cook
October 18, 2019
National Politics
Why Impeachment Remains a Dangerous Road for Dems
Despite all of the hyperventilating in Democratic and liberal circles, it is not at all clear that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has had a “road to Damascus” conversion on the subject of impeachment.…
Charlie Cook
October 15, 2019
National Politics
Our Stranger Than Fiction Politics
On Monday morning, a screenshot came across my family’s text chain—one often reserved for photos of our 13-month-old granddaughter—of a @realDonaldTrump tweet. “As I have stated strongly before, and…
Charlie Cook
October 11, 2019
National Politics
What's Clear—and What Isn't—From Here
It isn’t unusual that heading into an election year, some things are crystal clear and others murky, even opaque. So, what is clear and what isn’t? It is clear that there will be an enormous voter…
Charlie Cook
October 8, 2019
National Politics
It's Anyone's Guess What Happens From Here
As baseball great and philosopher Yogi Berra once opined, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Anyone who reads this column knows how the many twists and turns in American…
Charlie Cook
October 4, 2019
National Politics
Democrats Risk a Referendum on Impeachment, Rather Than on Trump
Democrats now seem to be hurtling toward something that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and many other party leaders had desperately tried to avoid: impeaching President Trump. Pelosi has probably spent…
Charlie Cook
October 1, 2019
National Politics
Trump Stuck, Warren Surges
There seemed to be just two topics of conversation in terms of presidential politics this past weekend. First was the impact of accusations that President Trump suggested or pressured Ukrainian…
Charlie Cook
September 27, 2019
National Politics
Will America Want to Have a Beer with Biden?
The latest polling data to emerge validates the view that Joe Biden went into and came out of the Houston debates as the front-runner; ditto the view that President Trump faces the more difficult…
Charlie Cook
September 24, 2019
National Politics
Biden Wobbles, But Stays Aloft
Speculating about how Joe Biden’s campaign would do, on June 7 this column compared the former vice president to a loaded 747: “You wonder whether it will even get off the ground, much less clear the…
Charlie Cook
September 20, 2019
National Politics
All Eyes Are Shifting to the Senate
This column argued six months ago that to the extent the focus of the political world wasn’t trained on the presidential election, it was on whether Democrats would retain their newly won House…
Charlie Cook
September 17, 2019
National Politics
Warren Polishes Sanders Playbook
Trips to Iowa and New Hampshire over the last month provided me plenty of insights into the 2020 Democratic field, but not too many answers. Similarly, Thursday’s ABC News/Univision debate in Houston…
Charlie Cook
September 13, 2019
National Politics
Just Who Are These Undecided Voters, Anyway?
Presidential general elections are generally determined by two factors: the size and relative enthusiasm of each major party’s base, and which way the swing voters in the middle go. Every four years…
Charlie Cook
September 10, 2019
National Politics
Recent White House Turmoil Only Underscores the Fundamentals of the 2020 Race
As we approach Labor Day weekend, it seems that a lot has happened over the last week. But despite the new economic worries, the White House's shifting positions on guns, and a feud with Denmark, it…
Charlie Cook
August 27, 2019
National Politics
These Are the Numbers That Should Worry Trump the Most
Charlie Cook
August 23, 2019
National Politics
If the Economy Dips, Will Trump's Fortunes Follow?
One of the hottest political topics this week is what effect Wednesday’s stock-market plunge and the possibility of a significant economic downturn will have on the upcoming presidential election.…
Charlie Cook
August 20, 2019
National Politics
Will a Third-Lane Candidate Emerge?
After driving more than 500 miles around Iowa over three days this past weekend and listening to almost 20 candidates, the two strongest impressions I received were just how fragile Joe Biden’s front…
Charlie Cook
August 16, 2019
National Politics
It May Come Down to Biden vs. Warren
If we learned anything from 2016, it was to be careful with predictions. Like life in general, politics can take unexpected turns. But stopping short of predictions, we can look at the horizon and…
Charlie Cook
August 13, 2019
National Politics
GOP Could Be Bracing for an Aftershock
From time to time I think about the first time I tried the Southern delicacy that is turducken—a deboned chicken stuffed inside a deboned duck, all inside a deboned turkey. I didn’t like it. As…
Charlie Cook
August 9, 2019
National Politics
Biden Continues to Thread the Needle
Watching the pair of Democratic presidential debates in Detroit this week left me feeling that former Vice President Joe Biden was both past his prime and good enough to be considered the favorite to…
Charlie Cook
August 6, 2019
National Politics
The Debates Are More Important Than You Think
It is not exactly an earth-shattering revelation that the Democratic presidential debates on CNN this Tuesday and Wednesday nights are important. But they might be even more important than many…
Charlie Cook
August 2, 2019
National Politics
Dems' Best Shot at Trump Is at the Ballot Box
The impeachment process in the House is the legislative branch’s equivalent of a criminal indictment. A Senate conviction is akin to a judicial finding of guilt. So, in the wake of former Special…
Charlie Cook
July 30, 2019
National Politics
The Odds of a 2016 Redux
The anxiety levels of more than a few Democrats increased exponentially last Friday with the almost simultaneous publication of two articles by really bright, independent political analysts who…
Charlie Cook
July 26, 2019
National Politics
Democrats Now Face a Stress Test of Their Own
Without getting too carried away, it can be said that America, its institutions, its democratic process, and indeed its people are undergoing a series of stress tests, both individually and…
Charlie Cook
July 23, 2019
National Politics
Trump's Great Reelection Expectations
A good friend of mine who is an American foreign policy expert recently returned from a trip to Asia, where he met with a wide variety of current and former senior government officials from across…
Charlie Cook
July 19, 2019
National Politics
Raging Partisanship in the Age of Trump
The phrase “elections have consequences” is both a cliché and a truism. Some used to say, “It doesn’t really matter who wins” a particular election, but it has been a while since those words have…
Charlie Cook
July 16, 2019
National Politics
Approval Numbers Now Untethered From Economy
President Trump has to be pleased with his approval ratings in the just-released ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted June 28 to July 1. His 44 percent rating is up 5 points from their last…
Charlie Cook
July 12, 2019
National Politics
A Referendum on Trump, or a Referendum on Socialism
In all of the talk this past weekend about the 2020 presidential race, the line that resonated with me was James Carville’s quote in the Sunday New York Times. “This is an election that Trump can’t…
Charlie Cook
July 5, 2019
National Politics
The Rorschach Tests of Early Debates
Primary-election debates are like Rorschach tests. People can watch and hear the same things, and reach very different conclusions. They can see different “winners” too. As of deadline for this…
Charlie Cook
July 2, 2019
National Politics
Context Is Critical When Parsing Biden's Words
Few ardent supporters of former Vice President Joe Biden would argue with the suggestion that he chose his words poorly when discussing his ability to work with Sen. James Eastland of Mississippi and…
Charlie Cook
June 28, 2019
National Politics
Trump's Pivot on Immigration Won't Help Him Win the Middle
Unless the saber rattling between President Trump and Iran gets much louder in the coming days, the political talk next week will be about the first pair of Democratic presidential debates Wednesday…
Charlie Cook
June 25, 2019
National Politics
The Top Tier Versus Trump
Two weeks ago, this column took a stab at winnowing the 23-candidate Democratic field of presidential candidates down to a plausible Elite Eight and Final Four. The suggested Elite Eight was made up…
Charlie Cook
June 21, 2019
My Family's Own D-Day Story
Charlie Cook
June 18, 2019
National Politics
Quantifying the "Trump Penalty"
With only a few exceptions, polling has delivered bad news for President Trump of late. His job-approval rating is 44 percent in RealClearPolitics.com’s average of major national polls. That includes…
Charlie Cook
June 14, 2019
National Politics
Who Will Make the "Final Four" of the Democratic Field?
It’s both audacious and a fool’s errand for anyone today to predict who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. After all, the final primaries will be a year from today. But we can…
Charlie Cook
June 11, 2019
National Politics
Why House Dems Shouldn't Impeach the President
It is difficult for me to understand the argument made by many Democrats and liberals for moving forward to impeach President Trump. Whether he warrants it or not, it is the definition of futility,…
Charlie Cook
June 7, 2019
National Politics
When and How the Democratic Field Will Shrink
The incredibly useful website Ballotpedia reports that as of May 27, 738 candidates had filed to run for president in 2020—252 as Democrats, 94 Republicans, and 29 for the Libertarian nomination. Who…
Charlie Cook
June 4, 2019
National Politics
Trump Has Ceded the Middle. Can Democrats Grab It?
It’s hardly novel to see the electorate as split into three groups: one side, the other side, and those in the middle. This presidential election can certainly be seen in this way, though the groups…
Charlie Cook
May 28, 2019
National Politics
How Abortion Could Threaten GOP Control of the Senate
Sometimes party control of a legislative chamber shouldn’t logically be in danger given the political fundamentals. But circumstances can and do change. For the better part of this decade, for…
Charlie Cook
May 24, 2019
National Politics
Trump's Rural Stress Test
There are many fascinating and paradoxical aspects to President Trump’s style and appeal. For example, someone whose life has hardly reflected that of a choirboy and who uses language not often…
Charlie Cook
May 21, 2019
National Politics
It Won't Take Long for the Deep Dem Field to Start Thinning
If Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio get into the race for president, Democrats will be one candidate short of an even two dozen. It’s a good bet that this herd will…
Charlie Cook
May 17, 2019
National Politics
Polling Responses Provide Vivid Illustration of Divergent Opinions on Trump
In this era of political tribalism, with so many people living in partisan and ideological silos—living, working, and socializing with like-minded people—it tends to not just reinforce thinking, but…
Charlie Cook
May 14, 2019
National Politics
Democrats' Huge Field Reflects the High Perceived Value of the Nomination
With both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado now officially in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock reportedly…
Charlie Cook
May 7, 2019
National Politics
As Lugar Learned, Experience Is No Silver Bullet in Politics
As a Capitol Hill intern in the mid-'70s, I heard a story about a young, eager-beaver freshman congressman who spent a considerable amount of time in the well of the House, badgering the floor…
Charlie Cook
May 3, 2019
House Overview
What to Watch for in the Race for the House Majority
Last year’s midterm elections may have been the first time in modern history that the elections for the House drew more attention, both before and after the balloting, than those for the Senate. In…
Charlie Cook
April 30, 2019
National Politics
The Political Risk of Impeachment
Democrats face a choice. We’ve heard many say President Trump is unqualified and unworthy of being president; that he has behaved in ways beneath his position and that he has betrayed the office—and…
Charlie Cook
April 26, 2019
National Politics
Let's Take a Breath on the Mueller Report's Political Ramifications
It’s now time to practice deep breathing exercises. In the 818 days since President Trump took the oath of office, we have heard over-caffeinated pundits and others say, “today is a decisive day for…
Charlie Cook
April 23, 2019
National Politics
The Power of "Negative Partisanship"
It’s no secret that the level of political acrimony in the 1970s and 1980s now pales in comparison to the current climate of partisanship. Indeed, when the Justice Department on Thursday releases…
Charlie Cook
April 19, 2019
National Politics
The Declining Importance of Big Donors
Charlie Cook
April 16, 2019
National Politics
The GOP's Senate Firewall
A palpable nervousness is taking hold among Republicans as they look ahead to the 2020 elections, and the word “firewall” is coming up frequently in the same sentence as “Senate.” Republicans…
Charlie Cook
April 12, 2019
National Politics
The Minds of Voters in the Middle
The more things happen, the more convincing is the view that 35 percent of the electorate is made up of President Trump’s hard base, 45 percent is the equally adamant opposition, and the remaining 20…
Charlie Cook
April 9, 2019
National Politics
Trump Keeps Making the Wrong Choices
Charlie Cook
April 5, 2019
National Politics
A Post-Mueller Bump for Trump Won't Last
Robert Mueller’s work has largely concluded and President Trump’s legal exposure has been diminished—at least on the charge that he and his campaign coordinated with Russian intelligence. So what…
Charlie Cook
April 2, 2019
National Politics
Mueller Report a 2020 Turning Point
Sunday afternoon’s release of Attorney General William Barr’s summary of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report marks a critical point in the 2020 presidential campaign. Democrats and other critics…
Charlie Cook
March 29, 2019
National Politics
The Calm Before the 2020 Storm
As weird and wild as the last four and a half months have been, it still feels like the lull before the storm. Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s multilayered probe seems to be near a crescendo,…
Charlie Cook
March 26, 2019
National Politics
The Dynamics to Watch in 2020
Whenever I’m asked, “Who do you pay particular attention to on politics and political trends?” one invariable name I offer is that of my former National Journal colleague, Ron Brownstein, now a…
Charlie Cook
March 22, 2019
National Politics
A Week of Political Whiplash
Between former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s Thursday announcement for the presidency and former Vice President Joe Biden looking all but certain to run, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi coming out against…
Charlie Cook
March 19, 2019
National Politics
Filling Out the 2020 Dem Bracket
We are now nearing the end of the Democratic presidential nomination sign-up period. Using The New York Times’ handy “Who’s Running for President in 2020?” interactive as a yardstick, we now have 14…
Charlie Cook
March 15, 2019
National Politics
How Power in the House Has Changed
Back in the old days, it seemed that at least in the House of Representatives, power was a zero-sum game. If a party was in the majority with a dozen or more seats to spare for occasional defections…
Charlie Cook
March 12, 2019
National Politics
The 2020 Path Democrats Shouldn't Take
At this point in the 2020 presidential campaign, there are several things we can be reasonably sure about and some that we don’t know at all. We can be fairly confident that President Trump is going…
Charlie Cook
March 8, 2019
National Politics
Why Cohen Won't Move the Needle
Don’t hold your breath in anticipation of big changes up or down in President Trump’s ratings in the polls in the aftermath of Michael Cohen’s testimony before Congress this week. Any movement is…
Charlie Cook
March 5, 2019
National Politics
Why the Senate Is the Big 2020 Story
Just about everyone interested in American politics these days is focused on what Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to do in the coming weeks, along with the unfolding presidential contest…
Charlie Cook
March 1, 2019
National Politics
How Mueller Could Add to Trump's Electoral Woes
With “the” or at least “a” report from Special Counsel Robert Mueller reportedly expected next week, some are predicting bombshell revelations that could damage President Trump greatly, while others…
Charlie Cook
February 26, 2019
National Politics
Are Democrats Dominated by the Left? Don't Be So Sure.
From much of the media coverage these days, you would think that the undisputed leaders of the Democratic Party are freshman Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and—of course—Sens. Elizabeth Warren and…
Charlie Cook
February 19, 2019
National Politics
Remembering a Legend
Charlie Cook
February 15, 2019
National Politics
Virginia, 2020, and Identity Politics
Over the last few days the bullets of identity politics have been ricocheting through the state Capitol in Richmond, the entire Commonwealth of Virginia, and to a certain extent, the whole Democratic…
Charlie Cook
February 12, 2019
National Politics
The Tricky Business of Judging Politicians
My hesitation to write about Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam is based on a feeling that his resignation might come at any moment, before this column sees the light of day. While I don’t think I have ever…
Charlie Cook
February 8, 2019
National Politics
How Economic Forecasts Will Affect 2020
It seems that every week a new candidate or two is either getting into the Democratic presidential nomination contest, as Sen. Kamala Harris did on Sunday, or getting out, as Los Angeles Mayor Eric…
Charlie Cook
February 5, 2019
National Politics
There Are Not Enough Electoral Votes for Howard Schultz
Charlie Cook
February 1, 2019
National Politics
The GOP's Balancing Act
Now that the federal government has reopened, at least for another three weeks, the question on a lot of minds is, “What now?” As this column noted last week in suggesting that the end was near,…
Charlie Cook
February 1, 2019
National Politics
Why Trump Needs to End the Shutdown
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on January 26, 2019 My hunch is that this government shutdown will be over inside of a week or 10 days, tops. The truth is that nobody ever…
Charlie Cook
January 29, 2019
National Politics
Economic Downturn Will Be Hurdle for Trump
There is no disputing that the state of the economy is a major factor in the reelection equation for any president. That is not to say a good economy guarantees a president a second term or a bad…
Charlie Cook
January 22, 2019
National Politics
Why a Primary Challenge to Trump Wouldn't Work
Republicans are in a jam. President Trump’s poll numbers are terrible and seem to be getting worse. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows a presidential-approval rating of 41 percent, the…
Charlie Cook
January 18, 2019
National Politics
It Will Only Get Worse for the GOP
Getting up Thursday morning on the 20th day of the partial federal government shutdown, one senses that President Trump and his party are not in a good place. For the record, the longest government…
Charlie Cook
January 15, 2019
National Politics
Who Can Win the Narrow Middle in 2020?
It is striking how many of President Trump supporters I meet who seem largely unconcerned about his chances of reelection. He won a race in 2016 that he wasn’t expected to win, so why not in 2020?…
Charlie Cook
January 11, 2019
National Politics
Sizing Up the 2020 House and Senate Landscapes
The political world will be a three-ring circus over the next two years, and while the contest for the presidency will obviously dominate, there will be plenty to watch in the House and Senate rings…
Charlie Cook
January 8, 2019
National Politics
Setting the Odds in an Odd Cycle
The University of Virginia’s inimitable and highly regarded political scientist Larry Sabato is fond of saying, “He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass!" As we prepare to turn…
Charlie Cook
December 26, 2018
National Politics
How Republicans Misplayed Their Primaries
Quick, name the four House incumbents who lost their reelection primaries earlier this year, two from each party, and think about what happened to their seats in the general election. The two…
Charlie Cook
December 18, 2018
National Politics
Sizing Up Trump's Base
Just what are President Trump’s reelection prospects? That’s the question for which everyone has a theory but no one has a definitive answer. There are so many imponderables, including the state of…
Charlie Cook
December 14, 2018
National Politics
As Dark Clouds Gather, Leaders Should Learn From the Past
Those of us who think and care about politics will long remember where we were when we watched or, in my case, listened to Wednesday morning's deeply moving National Cathedral memorial service for…
Charlie Cook
December 11, 2018
National Politics
What 2018 Tells Us About 2020
Many people these days have never driven a car with a manual transmission, but: We are now at a point when the clutch is in yet we haven’t fully shifted into gear or reverse. We aren’t quite finished…
Charlie Cook
December 7, 2018
National Politics
Get Ready for a Presidential Race Unlike Any Other
The last 2018 House race is yet to be officially called, but the fight for the 2020 Democratic presidential race has already started. Thousands of barrels of ink, literal or digital, will be expended…
Charlie Cook
December 4, 2018
National Politics
Voters Want Prudence, Not Politics
The late House Speaker Sam Rayburn used to say that “there is no education in the second kick of a mule.” Reading soon-to-be-former House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte’s announcement…
Charlie Cook
November 30, 2018
National Politics
Why Democrats Should Keep Pelosi
House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi owes Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a big favor. A good case can be made that Ocasio-Cortez, the 29-year old Democratic Socialist who upset House Democratic…
Charlie Cook
November 23, 2018
National Politics
Republicans Must Do Some Soul-Searching
Over the next few months, as election results are finalized, exit polling massaged, and post-election polling conducted and examined, we will be spending a lot of time slicing and dicing the data.…
Charlie Cook
November 20, 2018
National Politics
How Our Predictions Held Up
After the surprises of Election Night 2016, it was nice to have a first Tuesday after the first Monday in November in which things mostly went as expected, and for me personally, as predicted. In…
Charlie Cook
November 16, 2018
National Politics
An Increasingly Divided Nation Yields Divided Results
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 8, 2018 Coming on the heels of the most surprising presidential election outcome in our lifetimes, this 2018 midterm election…
Charlie Cook
November 12, 2018
National Politics
What Both Sides Could Learn From Tuesday
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 6, 2018 A friend said over the weekend, “The bird is in the oven. On Tuesday we will see what emerges—a goose or a buzzard.…
Charlie Cook
November 9, 2018
National Politics
A Late Nudge Toward Democrats?
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 2, 2018 Heading into the final weekend before the midterms, you have to wonder whether in the last week fate has thrown another…
Charlie Cook
November 5, 2018
National Politics
Why We're Headed for Huge Turnout
A week before the midterm elections, both parties are filled with anxiety. Like football wide receivers who have been blind-sided one time too many, many Democrats are hearing real or imaginary…
Charlie Cook
November 2, 2018
National Politics
Why Dems Are in the Driver's Seat for House Control
With 12 days to go before the midterm elections, there are plenty of reasons to believe that we know the general directions that the House, Senate, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections will…
Charlie Cook
October 30, 2018
National Politics
Trump's Numbers Improve, But GOP Problems Remain
Knowing that midterm elections are referenda on the incumbent president, Republicans have prayed since the early stages of this election cycle that President Trump’s job-approval ratings would rise.…
Charlie Cook
October 26, 2018
National Politics
The Contours of the Next Congress
With three weeks to go before the midterm elections, minds are already starting to turn toward what the next two years will be like. So what is the most plausible situation in January, when the 116th…
Charlie Cook
October 23, 2018
National Politics
A Shift in GOP Fortunes
The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome…
Charlie Cook
October 19, 2018
National Politics
A Tale of Two Increasingly Divergent Elections
It turns out that the bitter fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination was what I call a color-enhancement event—it made the reds redder and the blues bluer. The old cliché about…
Charlie Cook
October 16, 2018
National Politics
The Kavanaugh Aftermath
There was never any danger of me becoming a physics major but I remember, from my one class on the subject, Sir Isaac Newton’s third law of motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite…
Charlie Cook
October 12, 2018
National Politics
The Real Blue Wave Could Come in the States
There are a lot of great political stories out there right now, so it’s easy to miss that the biggest one might be happening below the federal level. Nationally, what appears to be the blue…
Charlie Cook
October 9, 2018
National Politics
How Kavanaugh Could Boost Turnout
It’s hard to have a conversation about politics in recent weeks without it quickly turning to President Trump’s nomination of federal Appeals Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S.…
Charlie Cook
October 5, 2018
National Politics
It's Trump, Not Kavanaugh, Who Will Matter in November
When I first got involved in politics in the 1970s, we had 24-hour news cycles. Today they’re more like 24 minutes, if that. Cable television and news alerts now on our phones have transformed what…
Charlie Cook
October 2, 2018
National Politics
The Kavanaugh Fight's Midterm Stakes
The eyes and ears of the political world will be on the Senate Judiciary Committee’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings this week: Judge Brett Kavanaugh against Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who has…
Charlie Cook
September 28, 2018
National Politics
Troubling Turnout Signs for the GOP
Yes, midterm elections are almost always referenda on the incumbent president, but the real driving force is turnout. With about a third fewer people casting ballots in midterm elections compared…
Charlie Cook
September 25, 2018
National Politics
Kavanaugh Drama Adds Fresh Uncertainty to Midterms
This election is taking on many of the aspects of a three-ring circus. Not only are wild and unexpected things happening, but if you focus too much on what is going on in any one ring, you miss what…
Charlie Cook
September 21, 2018
Senate Overview
Why the Senate Landscape Hasn't Really Changed
Suddenly the political world seems to realize that the Senate is in play, concluding that the expected Democratic wave, which has made a turnover in the House very likely, is now starting to swamp…
Charlie Cook
September 18, 2018
National Politics
The Midterm Messages That Matter
Ask any political analyst what midterm elections are about and they will respond, “midterms are almost always referenda on the incumbent president,” and the statistics bear them out. Since the end of…
Charlie Cook
September 14, 2018
National Politics
A Trying Week for Washington
Well, too bad there is nothing to write about this week! Where do we start—perhaps with the apoplectic Democrats during the Senate Judiciary Committee’s confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh’s…
Charlie Cook
September 11, 2018
National Politics
A Grim Fall Awaits GOP
For over six months this column has suggested that this election amounts to a Democratic tidal wave crashing against a Republican seawall—the question is which will be stronger. At Labor Day, the…
Charlie Cook
September 7, 2018
National Politics
Dark Days Ahead for Trump and the GOP
This week’s developments—the guilty verdict of Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign head found guilty on tax and bank-fraud charges, and the guilty plea by Michael Cohen, Trump’s longtime…
Charlie Cook
August 28, 2018
National Politics
Forecast Calls for Legislative Paralysis in the Next Congress
So who will be in charge in Washington next year? Right now, The Cook Political Report is forecasting that the most likely midterm-election outcome in the House is Democrats picking up between 20 and…
Charlie Cook
August 24, 2018
National Politics
The Down Side of Winning the White House
It’s ironic how much members of a party desperately want to retake the White House, then when they do, they spend the next four or eight years paying for that success. After eight years of President…
Charlie Cook
August 21, 2018
National Politics
Handicapping Trump's Chances in 2020
Charlie Cook
August 17, 2018
National Politics
Ahead of the Midterms, Some Free Advice for Republicans and Democrats
For all of the hyperventilating Tuesday night and Wednesday, we really didn’t learn much from this week’s special elections that we didn’t already know. It had been obvious for some time that…
Charlie Cook
August 14, 2018
National Politics
Why the Ohio Special Election Won't Tell Us Much About November
Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is likely to be close, but several things are entirely predictable. There will be plenty of hyperventilating pundits on Tuesday night…
Charlie Cook
August 10, 2018
National Politics
What the 2016 Elections Taught Us About Uncertainty
I am frequently asked what the “surprise elections” will be this fall. After all, there are always a few races whose outcome—or near outcome, the results much closer than expected—seem to come out of…
Charlie Cook
August 7, 2018
National Politics
McCain Looks Back on a Unique Life
The House has gone home and the Senate will by the end of the week, so it’s a good time to head to the beach, the mountains, or a park bench for a good read. In recent months I’ve read and thoroughly…
Charlie Cook
August 3, 2018
National Politics
The Three Fronts of the 2018 Election
Three themes seem to be developing in this 2018 midterm election. First, the challenge for Republicans of holding onto their House majority is looking increasingly difficult. Second, the fight over…
Charlie Cook
July 31, 2018
National Politics
Pro- and Anti-Trump Views Harden
After President Trump’s disastrous performances in Helsinki and Brussels and instigation of a trade war, many predicted that last week would represent a turning point in his presidency, that even…
Charlie Cook
July 27, 2018
National Politics
Why Trump Won't Take a Political Hit From Summit Follies
Alot of people are expecting enormous fallout from President Trump’s meetings with NATO leaders in Brussels and summit in Helsinki with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many clearly believe that all…
Charlie Cook
July 24, 2018
National Politics
Will Senate GOP Feel the Heat in 2020?
Given that control of the House is teetering and the battle over the 51-49 Senate is just short of hand-to-hand-combat, it may seem odd to be thinking about the 2020 Senate elections. But there is…
Charlie Cook
July 20, 2018
National Politics
Why Kavanaugh Looks Like a Done Deal
The more things change, the more they stay the same. While retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy had long been considered the swing vote in many high-profile cases on a Supreme Court routinely divided…
Charlie Cook
July 17, 2018
National Politics
Why House Control Is Getting the Headlines
This year is one of the few in memory when the fight for control of the House is getting more attention than the one for the Senate, normally the more glamorous of the two. The Senate could flip…
Charlie Cook
July 13, 2018
National Politics
Democrats Risk Overreach on Immigration
It was to my dismay that I discovered from “The Quote Investigator” that Abraham Lincoln may not have coined the phrase “defeat from the jaws of victory.” The (untrue) story goes that Lincoln,…
Charlie Cook
July 10, 2018
National Politics
An Electoral Fight Between Two Very Different Americas
The fight for control of Congress is being fought in two very different Americas. Of the 18 competitive and potentially competitive Senate races, those categorized in The Cook Political Report as…
Charlie Cook
July 6, 2018
National Politics
What Kennedy’s Retirement Means for the Midterms
What are the electoral implications of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement that he will retire from the Supreme Court? With about a third fewer people voting in midterm than in presidential…
Charlie Cook
July 3, 2018
National Politics
Trump’s Risky Bet on His Base
President Trump has given a new twist to German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s famous line, “That which does not kill us makes us stronger.” In the case of the president, that which hurts him…
Charlie Cook
June 29, 2018
National Politics
What’s Fueling Trump’s Rise in the Polls
The Trump presidency has a plethora of unique attributes, but one of the most surprising to me is the lack of volatility of his poll numbers. Using the Gallup Organization’s weekly polling as a…
Charlie Cook
June 22, 2018
National Politics
Trump Policies Abroad Will Hurt at Home
It’s hard these days to meet with governmental and business leaders from around the world and not be struck by their growing feelings of anxiety, impatience, and resentment toward the United States…
Charlie Cook
June 19, 2018
National Politics
Big Stakes and Small Margins in Battle for the Senate
We will find out for sure in a little less than five months, but at this point, it looks more likely than not that Republicans will lose control of the House while retaining their Senate majority.…
Charlie Cook
June 15, 2018
National Politics
Numbers Show House GOP Still in Deep Trouble
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday morning had both good and bad news for President Trump and his party. The good news was that optimism about the direction of the country and…
Charlie Cook
June 12, 2018
National Politics
America’s Seismic Political Shifts
The cover of the April 21 issue of The Economist asked, “What’s become of the Republican Party?” Inside, the article was headlined, “How the elephant got its Trump,” beginning with a quote from a…
Charlie Cook
June 8, 2018
National Politics
Presidential Disapproval Marks Portend Bad Autumn for Congressional GOP
For better or worse, midterm elections are almost invariably referenda on the incumbent president. In four of the past eight midterm elections, the sitting president’s final preelection Gallup…
Charlie Cook
June 5, 2018
National Politics
Tracking Trump’s Unusual Poll Patterns
It should not be a surprise that this most unconventional of presidents might have a nontraditional pattern of job-approval ratings over his first 16 months in office. With the summit meeting…
Charlie Cook
May 29, 2018
National Politics
Why November’s Downballot Races Matter
As Rhodes Cook, the longtime political analyst, recently wrote in his newsletter, “The breadth of Republican dominance these days is not just impressive, it’s staggering. They control the White House…
Charlie Cook
May 25, 2018
National Politics
Why President Trump’s Numbers Barely Move
It is amazing to note how stable President Trump’s poll numbers are, regardless of positive or negative developments. Yes, his approval ratings are better today than they were six months ago or even…
Charlie Cook
May 22, 2018
National Politics
Democrats’ Midterm Margin for Error Is Shrinking
It’s still true that Democrats are far more likely than not to capture a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, but their margin for error may be less than it was six…
Charlie Cook
May 18, 2018
National Politics
The Numbers Say Dems Still Have an Edge—But Not a Huge One
In both life and politics, things aren’t always quite as straightforward and tidy as we would like. There can be a general agreement on the direction something is headed, but not necessarily on the…
Charlie Cook
May 15, 2018
National Politics
Glimmers of Hope for the GOP
With the midterm elections less than six months away, the question seems to be whether we are at a new transition point. Last fall, when Election Day was a year out, President Trump’s job-approval-…
Charlie Cook
May 11, 2018
National Politics
What’s at Stake in the Midterms
This 2018 election is a relative rarity. Sure, congressional elections come every two years, but it is really unusual for the majorities in the House and Senate to actually be teetering on the edge…
Charlie Cook
May 8, 2018
National Politics
Before They Make Gains, Dems Need to Look in the Mirror
With the chances of Democrats capturing control of the House edging from a possibility to a probability, and a Democratic majority in the Senate now quite plausible—though still under 50-50—it’s a…
Charlie Cook
May 4, 2018
National Politics
GOP’s Midterm Mission: Triage the Seats That Can Be Saved
The fight over the House majority is hardly a done deal, but it’s safe to say that GOP control is in increasing jeopardy and worries among Republicans for their Senate majority are growing.…
Charlie Cook
May 1, 2018
National Politics
Donald Trump and the Cycles of the Presidency
Given how extraordinary Donald Trump’s nomination and election were, it’s helpful to benchmark how his presidency is going compared to the norm. Republicans typically nominate an establishment…
Charlie Cook
April 27, 2018
National Politics
Measuring the Midterm Intensity Gap
There is a lot of talk about intensity of voters these days, and for good reason. It was the greater intensity of support among Donald Trump backers and the relative ambivalence of many who intended…
Charlie Cook
April 24, 2018
National Politics
Firing Rosenstein, Mueller Might Not Solve Trump’s Legal Problems
Last week’s raids by the FBI on the home, hotel room, and office of President Trump’s personal lawyer and close adviser Michael Cohen underscore that the investigation by Special Counsel Robert…
Charlie Cook
April 20, 2018
National Politics
#MeToo, Social Media, and Keeping an Eye on the Big Picture
Prior to House Speaker Paul Ryan’s Wednesday announcement that he was retiring from Congress, it was my intention to write this column about a really interesting and thought-provoking PowerPoint…
Charlie Cook
April 17, 2018
National Politics
Three Turnout Wild Cards: Guns, Impeachment, and SCOTUS
Charlie Cook
April 13, 2018
National Politics
Voters’ Motives Shift, and Allegiances Harden
A New York Times piece in the “Review” section this past Sunday really got my attention. Amy Sullivan, a Chicago-based journalist, wrote, “Now that Stormy Daniels has confirmed on national television…
Charlie Cook
April 10, 2018
Senate Overview
How to Handicap the Race for the Senate
The toughest question for me this election cycle is which party, if either, will gain Senate seats. With the obvious caveat that things can change between now and Nov. 6, it’s reasonably clear that…
Charlie Cook
April 6, 2018
National Politics
Sorting Through the 2020 Democratic Primary Already (Quietly) Underway
Charlie Cook
April 3, 2018
National Charts
The Demographic Trends That Should Worry Republicans
Charlie Cook
March 30, 2018
National Politics
The GOP’s Dwindling Base
With porn actresses, former Playboy playmates, and Cambridge Analytica in the news recently, the bimbo eruptions and failed Arkansas land deal of the 1992 campaign and the Clinton presidency seem…
Charlie Cook
March 27, 2018
National Politics
A Creeping Sense of Doom for Republicans
In the wake of the GOP’s House special-election loss in Pennsylvania and amid President Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior, it’s really hard to come up with good news for Republicans. In my…
Charlie Cook
March 23, 2018
National Politics
Evidence Grows that Trump Is Dragging the GOP Down
Charlie Cook
March 20, 2018
National Politics
What’s at Stake in State Legislative Races
It’s hard to overstate the importance of the American presidential elections, but very easy to underappreciate the significance of midterm elections, particularly this year’s. While every midterm…
Charlie Cook
March 16, 2018
National Politics
Troubling Signs for the GOP on the Electoral Horizon
It’s hard to remember a week when there were so many interesting or important political developments. Some are getting less attention than warranted, others perhaps too much. In no particular order…
Charlie Cook
March 13, 2018
National Politics
Obamacare Polls Offer Lessons
In terms of ideology, it’s fascinating how sorted out the two political parties have become. The days of conservative-leaning Democrats having a strong and moderating voice in their party, just as…
Charlie Cook
March 9, 2018
National Politics
Dems Should Worry About Long-Term Direction, Not 2018 Message
Charlie Cook
March 6, 2018
National Charts
Trump, GOP Fall Back to Earth
This is turning out to be a fascinating midterm election, pitting the Democratic wave against the Republican seawall. Historic midterm voting patterns combined with national, state, and district-…
Charlie Cook
March 2, 2018
National Politics
Why Washington Isn’t Working
This is hardly a new or unique observation, but it is increasingly apparent that things in our Capitol and our political process simply are not working. I’m not talking about any specific issue,…
Charlie Cook
February 27, 2018
National Politics
Despite Bright Spots for Trump, Disapproval Remains Intense
With so many conservatives and Republicans down on mainstream-media organizations and the polls that they sponsor, the latest Fox News survey gives us an opportunity to drill down on data that…
Charlie Cook
February 21, 2018
National Politics
Is Trump’s Uptick a Blip or a Trend?
Those of us who obsess about politics and midterm elections are laser-focused on two variables right now—the “stickability” of President Trump’s uptick in approval ratings since the beginning of the…
Charlie Cook
February 16, 2018
National Politics
Can the Economy Stop a Democratic Wave?
When talking about an upcoming election, a friend often asks, “Charlie, if you are wrong, how are you wrong?” I’ve always found that to be a good intellectual exercise for anyone in the…
Charlie Cook
February 13, 2018
National Politics
The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism
All of our national elections are important, but there is always a special significance to the last midterm elections before the congressional and state-legislative redistricting processes take place…
Charlie Cook
February 9, 2018
House Overview
Mapping the Fight for the House
While most in the political world accept the premise that the Republican majority in the House is in real danger, not everyone understands exactly where the GOP is in peril. Even a cursory glance at…
Charlie Cook
February 6, 2018
National Politics
The "Trap" of a U.S.-China War
It isn’t often that a book comes along that should be mandatory reading for every member of Congress, Cabinet member and, for that matter, any senior governmental official with a connection to…
Charlie Cook
February 2, 2018
Senate Overview
The Senate Battlegrounds to Watch
Charlie Cook
January 30, 2018
National Politics
The Numbers to Watch Ahead of November
There seems little point in spending a lot of time trying to assess the political implications of what turned out to be a relatively brief government shutdown. The initial reading of the deal is that…
Charlie Cook
January 26, 2018
National Politics
GOP Needs to Keep Focus on Tax Cuts and the Economy, Not a Shutdown
Democrats and Republicans are playing a game of legislative chicken over government funding, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, and the border wall as well as the Children’s Health…
Charlie Cook
January 23, 2018
National Politics
The Wave vs. the Map
The rash of recent retirements by House Republicans along with the decisions by a number of top-tier Republicans being courted to run for the Senate combine to reinforce the view that many of us have…
Charlie Cook
January 16, 2018
National Politics
Democrats Shouldn’t Overplay Their Hands
The Republican establishment is positively giddy over the apparent comeuppance of Steve Bannon in the wake of his intemperate quotes in Michael Wolff’s new book, Fire and Fury. Many in the…
Charlie Cook
January 12, 2018
National Politics
A White House That Can’t Shoot Straight
The NBC News Political Unit’s morning newsletter First Read on Thursday nailed it, noting, “The last two days are a reminder that 2018 will be all about Trump: For those who thought the GOP’s tax law…
Charlie Cook
January 8, 2018
National Politics
Trump and Republicans Crater in Gold-Standard Poll
Charlie Cook
December 26, 2017
National Politics
Only the Economy Could Change the Political Atmosphere
Charlie Cook
December 22, 2017
National Politics
It’s a New Day for Democrats
Other than the small matter of putting into play the Republican Senate majority for the first time this year, what did Democrat Doug Jones’s victory in Alabama mean for next year’s midterm elections…
Charlie Cook
December 19, 2017
National Politics
The Political Portents of December
Not since the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore—Tuesday marks the 17th anniversary of its announcement—have we had a December as politically momentous as the one shaping up this year. Which…
Charlie Cook
December 15, 2017
National Politics
The Perceptive Books of TV Journalist Chris Matthews
Like a lot of practitioners of opinion journalism, Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s weeknight show Hardball, has his share of both fans and detractors. His fans and regular MSNBC viewers, typically…
Charlie Cook
December 12, 2017
National Politics
Why the Tax Bill Could Be Bad Politics
With Senate passage of the tax-cut bill, it looks very likely that President Trump and Republicans will finally get one of their top priorities enacted into law. The big question is whether the…
Charlie Cook
December 8, 2017
National Politics
The Voices of Trump Supporters
As much as I like to pore over polling data, focus groups offer color and texture that are missing from numbers on a page. Veteran pollster Peter Hart is a master at conducting focus groups. In Hart’…
Charlie Cook
December 5, 2017
National Politics
GOP Tax Cuts Are Driven by Politics, Not Economics
Congressional Republicans have convinced themselves that they need to pass a tax bill ASAP. Having failed to repeal and replace Obamacare and made little if any progress on either a border wall or a…
Charlie Cook
December 1, 2017
National Politics
The GOP Fails To Make the Case for Its Own Success
One of the perks of being a political columnist is that from time to time you can step into the shoes of a campaign strategist and offer some unsolicited advice. While it is doubtful that anyone has…
Charlie Cook
November 27, 2017
National Politics
Democratic Wave Begins Forming Off Political Coast
Charlie Cook
November 21, 2017
Alabama Senate
Roy Moore’s Political Morality Test
It’s anyone’s guess what will happen in the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama between former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, the Republican, and former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones, the…
Charlie Cook
November 17, 2017
Alabama Senate
Just When You Think It’s Bad, Roy Moore Makes It Worse
It’s 3 o’clock on Thursday afternoon. Too bad there’s nothing for me to write about. Just as we were in the final stages of sifting through the tea leaves from Tuesday’s surprising off-year elections…
Charlie Cook
November 14, 2017
National Politics
Tuesday’s Tea Leaves for 2018
Note: This article was published prior to Tuesday's elections at nationaljournal.com By Wednesday morning—after returns are in from New Jersey, Virginia, and a few special state legislative…
Charlie Cook
November 10, 2017
National Politics
How the 2016 Election Changed the Political Calculus
Listening to the House and Senate campaign committee chairs, both Democratic and Republican, at a Wall Street Journal-sponsored panel on Thursday morning, it hit me how different the conversation is…
Charlie Cook
November 7, 2017
National Politics
Silver Lining in the GOP Gloom
The news seems unrelentingly bad for Republicans these days. President Trump’s former campaign chairman is indicted on money laundering, among other charges, while a Trump campaign foreign policy…
Charlie Cook
November 3, 2017
National Politics
Will Trump Lead Republicans Into Little Big Horn?
Having lived, gone to college, and worked in Washington for 45 years, I thought I had seen pretty much everything. That is until 2015, and Donald Trump’s appearance on the national political stage.…
Charlie Cook
October 31, 2017
National Politics
Bannon’s Circular Firing Squad
Charlie Cook
October 27, 2017
Tennessee Senate
A Democratic Senate Majority Hinges on Tennessee
Charlie Cook
October 24, 2017
National Politics
Business Endures a Love-Hate Relationship With Trump
Talking with the head lobbyist of a large corporation the other day, it occurred to me how ambivalent big business feels toward President Trump and his administration. For many in the corporate…
Charlie Cook
October 20, 2017
National Politics
Working, Voting, and Bowling Alone
It’s hard not to read the morning newspapers or watch the evening news and not see evidence that the fabric of our nation is coming unraveled. The seventh from the last word in our Pledge of…
Charlie Cook
October 17, 2017
National Politics
Trump’s Feud With Corker Takes Him To a Darker Place
Republicans woke up Columbus Day morning to the sights and sounds of the wheels coming off their midterm-election bus and their legislative jalopy. First came a widely publicized war of words between…
Charlie Cook
October 13, 2017
National Politics
The Second Gilded Age and Its Discontents
Washington is a town full of smart people, and one of the smartest is Bruce Mehlman of the bipartisan lobbying firm of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. It isn’t the bachelor’s degree from…
Charlie Cook
October 9, 2017
National Politics
The Fantasyland of Tax Reform
The baffling assumption in Washington and in the markets these days is the persistent optimism that major tax reform or a big tax cut will be enacted this year or next. Why should anyone think this…
Charlie Cook
October 6, 2017
Alabama Senate
Alabama Race Claims Casualties in GOP Civil War
Charlie Cook
October 3, 2017
National Politics
Loose Lips May Sink Trump’s Ship
Analysts are sifting through a mountain of just-released national polling from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, along with the continuous flow from the Gallup…
Charlie Cook
September 29, 2017
National Politics
An Accidental President Charts a Purposeful Course
It’s a popular refrain that President Trump and his administration are ineffectual and unable to achieve their goals. If you measure by legislation passed, that’s pretty much on target. Given that…
Charlie Cook
September 26, 2017
National Politics
Trump’s Tap Dance With Chuck and Nancy Comes at a Price
Charlie Cook
September 22, 2017
National Politics
Trump Drives a Wedge Between GOP Senate Candidates and His Base
The challenge for Democrats trying to take back the Senate is formidable. Ten Democratic incumbents are up in states carried by Donald Trump last year, five in states that Trump won by 19 points or…
Charlie Cook
September 19, 2017
National Politics
The Urgent Need to Repair Our Broken Politics
An article in Washington Monthly caught my eye the other day. It compared the United States today to Germany between the two World Wars. As a rule, I’m wary of historical analogies. It seems that the…
Charlie Cook
September 15, 2017
Senate Overview
Democrats Face Steep Climb to Win Back the Senate
It’s hard to ignore the storm clouds gathering for Republicans looking toward the 2018 elections. Midterms are typically referenda on the incumbent president and the party in power, and Donald Trump’…
Charlie Cook
September 12, 2017
National Politics
Lessons From an Ineffective President
If you wanted to offer a graduate-school class in how not to be an effective president of the United States, Donald Trump could write the textbook and teach the course. The first lesson would be to…
Charlie Cook
September 8, 2017
National Politics
Will the 2018 Midterms Follow Historic Patterns?
In political handicapping you often have to reconcile a conflict between macro and micro dynamics. The macro, or big-picture factors, focus on the sitting president, with his popularity highly…
Charlie Cook
August 18, 2017
National Politics
Can Kelly Rein in the Unruly President?
One of the more interesting political questions these days is whether Gen. John Kelly can bring some semblance of order to the Trump White House. IF anyone can transform the most disorganized and…
Charlie Cook
August 11, 2017
National Politics
Bad News for GOP: Trump Isn’t Changing
Not quite 50 years ago, one of the last of the Big Band crooners, Peggy Lee, recorded a hit song, “Is That All There Is?” That, no doubt, captures the discouraged sentiment of a lot of Republicans…
Charlie Cook
August 4, 2017
National Politics
Midterms Are About the Party in Power, Not Issues
To the extent that there are “normal” times in American politics, the general line of demarcation is fairly straightforward: Democrats vs. Republicans. Even factoring in shades of liberal, moderate,…
Charlie Cook
August 1, 2017
National Politics
Trump Rules by Gut, Not Brains
It’s ironic that what makes Donald Trump so authentic to his supporters is what is keeping him from being an effective president. His supporters love that he is not a career politician, that he hasn’…
Charlie Cook
July 28, 2017
National Politics
GOP Divisions Doomed Health Care Bill
The collapse of the Senate Republican health care bill isn’t all that complicated and shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Like some bad marriages, you can chalk it up to “irreconcilable differences…
Charlie Cook
July 25, 2017
National Politics
Authenticity Is Key to Democratic Chances
Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates…
Charlie Cook
July 21, 2017
National Politics
Why Trump’s Approval Ratings Hold Firm
Earlier this week, a friend who leans decidedly Democratic was euphoric over news reports that one of the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-Trump…
Charlie Cook
July 18, 2017
National Politics
Midterm Questions for the GOP
Starting Tuesday, the House is in session 13 days and the Senate 14 before the August recess begins. As congressional Republicans face their long list of to-do items, one thing will…
Charlie Cook
July 14, 2017
National Politics
Democrats Take Heart: The GOP Is Sinking
After last month’s losses in the Georgia 6th District and South Carolina 5th District races, a narrative took hold on why the Democratic Party had whiffed in all four competitive special…
Charlie Cook
July 11, 2017
National Politics
Trump Erodes U.S. Tradition of Global Leadership
When President Trump heads to Poland and the G-20 summit in Germany this week, he will be going in a different capacity than any president in our lifetimes. During the first half of the…
Charlie Cook
July 7, 2017
National Politics
The GOP’s Health Care Dilemma
There are dilemmas and then there are real dilemmas. On health care, Republicans are in a real dilemma. Congressional Republicans promised their base a million times that they would…
Charlie Cook
July 4, 2017
National Politics
Democrats Find It’s Risky to Poke the GOP Elephant
There’s an old saying that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and that’s certainly how Democrats must feel after losing their third and fourth attempts of the year to wrestle…
Charlie Cook
June 27, 2017
National Politics
Can GOP Candidates Outrun Trump?
The score is now 2-1: Britain has produced two stunning electoral surprises in the last year, the United States just one. While there is a danger in reading too much into the results of in…
Charlie Cook
June 16, 2017
National Politics
An Early Look at Democrats’ 2020 Brackets
We’re only 140 days into a new presidential administration and yet there is already a stream of articles speculating about the contest for the 2020 Democratic nomination. There is a…
Charlie Cook
June 13, 2017
National Politics
A Three-Ring Political Circus
Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Circus has gone out of business, but Washington is still providing a three-ring circus. The first is President Trump’s decision to drop out of the Par…
Charlie Cook
June 9, 2017
National Politics
Russia Probes Could Be a Millstone in Midterms for the GOP
With the midterm elections 17 months away, it’s pretty clear that all of this Russia business is relevant. We have a new president with no government experience, a mercurial tempera…
Charlie Cook
June 6, 2017
National Politics
A Week That Could Revive Trump
Last week, it was the role of Russia in the 2016 campaign that dominated the news; this week, with President Trump on his first overseas trip and largely sticking to his script, it’s more…
Charlie Cook
May 25, 2017
National Politics
The Unfolding Republican Nightmare
If a Democrat had a nightmare a year ago, it might well look like what happened in last November’s elections. If a Republican had a nightmare on the eve of President Trump’s inaugura…
Charlie Cook
May 23, 2017
National Politics
Time for a Special Prosecutor
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 16, 2017 Almost as soon as the votes were counted in November, some Democrats began clamoring for the appointment of a spe…
Charlie Cook
May 18, 2017
National Politics
Comey’s Firing Shakes Up Jittery Republicans
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 11, 2017 It’s time for congressional Republicans and their strategists to start popping their blood-pressure meds. Even be…
Charlie Cook
May 16, 2017
National Politics
Surf’s Up For a Wave Election
Charlie Cook
May 11, 2017
National Politics
Clinton’s Defeat: Outside Factors Hurt, but Blame Falls on the Candidate
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 5, 2017 Finishing Amie Parnes and Jonathan Allen’s engrossing book, Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton’s Doomed Campaign,…
Charlie Cook
May 9, 2017
National Politics
The Divided States of America
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 2, 2017 The bitter partisanship that has enveloped Capitol Hill, the White House, Washington, and the country is deeply…
Charlie Cook
May 5, 2017
National Politics
Trump Buoyed By Hope and Faith, Not Results
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 28, 2017 In Texas, when people talk loudly and promise a lot but deliver little, they are said to be “all hat and no cattle.”…
Charlie Cook
May 2, 2017
National Politics
Trump Banks On Second 100 Days
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 24, 2017 It is absolutely true that there is nothing special about a new president’s first 100 days. It is an arbitrary…
Charlie Cook
April 27, 2017
National Politics
Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job Training
Charlie Cook
April 20, 2017
National Politics
Big Warning Signs for the GOP
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 14, 2017 The bottom didn’t fall out for Republicans in this week’s House special election to replace newly-minted CIA Dir…
Charlie Cook
April 18, 2017
National Politics
Watching Special Elections for Signs of a Wave
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 10, 2017 Wichita is 1,250 miles from Washington, D.C., but you can bet quite a few people inside the Beltway will be check…
Charlie Cook
April 13, 2017
National Politics
How the Senate’s Cooling Function Became a Partisan Boil
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 7, 2017 For those of us who revere Congress and, in my case, particularly the Senate, having first worked there as an in…
Charlie Cook
April 11, 2017
National Politics
Shutdown Crisis Looms for GOP
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2017 If you could be a fly on the wall eavesdropping on a meeting these days, only one would be more interesting than the…
Charlie Cook
April 7, 2017
National Politics
The Dizzying Effect of Trump's Roller-Coaster Presidency
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 30, 2017 Soon after Donald Trump was elected president it became strikingly clear that these would be no ordinary times,…
Charlie Cook
April 4, 2017
National Politics
Trump's Uncertain Next Move
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 28, 2017 With Friday’s collapse of the Republican effort to decapitate President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, it…
Charlie Cook
March 31, 2017
National Politics
A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 24, 2017 Nobody knows where this nascent Donald Trump presidency is going. New administrations start off with an infin…
Charlie Cook
March 28, 2017
National Politics
Republicans Weigh Their RyanCare Votes
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 21, 2017 More than a few House Republicans are likely to be taking deep breaths as they board the subway from the Longworth…
Charlie Cook
March 23, 2017
National Politics
Trump's Budget Would Rattle the World
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 17, 2017 The backlash that Republicans are experiencing on their proposed American Health Care Act is very real and…
Charlie Cook
March 21, 2017
National Politics
The Parties Prep for a Rematch
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 13, 2017 There are three distinctive seasons in the biannual election cycle. The first is to figure out what happened in…
Charlie Cook
March 17, 2017
National Politics
Trump Pushes Health Bill, But Ryan Owns It
Charlie Cook
March 14, 2017
National Politics
Trump Walks the Political High Wire
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 7, 2017 President Trump is going to miss Hillary Clinton. Last November, both Trump and Clinton had enthusiastic sup…
Charlie Cook
March 10, 2017
National
Reality Intrudes on Trump’s Dream Palace
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 3, 2017 New York Fed President William Dudley told CNN on Tuesday that “there’s no question that animal spirits have been…
Charlie Cook
March 7, 2017
National Politics
Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 24, 2017 The two-thirds of Republicans in the House who have never served when the GOP held majorities in the House and…
Charlie Cook
February 28, 2017
National Politics
Trump’s Fine-Tuned Machine Runs Like an Oil-Burning Jalopy
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 17, 2017 As a candidate, Donald Trump thoroughly enjoyed dismantling and torturing the Republican wing of the Repub…
Charlie Cook
February 21, 2017
House
Field Set in GA-06 Special Election
Charlie Cook
February 17, 2017
National Politics
GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 14, 2017 Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents…
Charlie Cook
February 17, 2017
National Politics
Power Brings Headaches for Hill Republicans
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 10, 2017 Congressional Republicans in general and the more conservative members in particular are already finding life in the…
Charlie Cook
February 14, 2017
National Politics
Trump and Trumpians Still in Sync
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 7, 2017 Two things seem abundantly clear right now. First, President Trump’s agenda and priorities are exactly what he…
Charlie Cook
February 10, 2017
National Politics
How Analytical Models Failed Clinton
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 27, 2016 The November elections pitted Democrats against Republicans, conservatives against liberals, Trump-style…
Charlie Cook
December 30, 2016
National Politics
What Happens When Parties Move to Extremes
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 23, 2016 Business, and indeed the whole economy, appreciate and prosper with stability and predictability. Wild pen…
Charlie Cook
December 27, 2016
National Politics
Democrats Need to Reach Out to the Heartland
If Democrats want to keep blaming others for their sorry performance on Election Day, they’re obviously free to do so. Yes, they were hurt by the disclosure of Hillary Clinton’s private…
Charlie Cook
December 23, 2016
National Politics
56 Interesting Facts About the 2016 Election
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s victory was definitely THE most interesting thing that happened in the 2016 election, but it certainly wasn’t the only interesting thing. In keeping…
Charlie Cook
December 16, 2016
Louisiana Senate
Test Article 4
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Charlie Cook
December 14, 2016
National Politics
Voters Knew What They Were Getting With Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 6, 2016 Virtually every day, President-elect Donald Trump says or does something that many in the Washington establish…
Charlie Cook
December 9, 2016
National Politics
Trump Shows He’s a Bully With a Pulpit
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 2, 2016 A tweet by Donald Trump earlier this week caused eye-rolling among people with an even cursory knowledge of consti…
Charlie Cook
December 6, 2016
National Politics
Uphill Climb for Democrats in 2018
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 28, 2016 In just a few weeks Democrats have gone from driving for what figured to be an easy lay up to having the rest of the…
Charlie Cook
December 2, 2016
National Politics
The Truthful Hyperbole of Donald Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 18, 2016 At least half of Washington and plenty of people beyond the Beltway are taking a crash course in Donald Trump, trying…
Charlie Cook
November 22, 2016
National Politics
Trump Grasped What Others Missed
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 15, 2016 Before assigning blame for why Hillary Clinton lost a race that she was supposed to win, it seems appropriate…
Charlie Cook
November 18, 2016
National Politics
Americans Roll the Dice On Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 11, 2016 If there is a contradiction in Tuesday’s presidential-election results, it’s that Americans desperately wanted change…
Charlie Cook
November 15, 2016
National Politics
Cook’s Crystal Ball: Clinton Wins, Democrats To Control Senate
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 8, 2016 While there still is a path to 270 electoral votes for Donald Trump, it’s barely visible. It would require winning…
Charlie Cook
November 11, 2016
National Politics
Relax, America: We’ll Survive the Election
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 4, 2016 When Gerald Ford was sworn into office after President Nixon’s resignation, he said, “My fellow Americans,…
Charlie Cook
November 8, 2016
National Politics
Mad as Hell and Nowhere to Turn
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 1, 2016 Ever since the news broke on Friday that new emails had emerged that could pertain to the investigation of Hil…
Charlie Cook
November 4, 2016
National Politics
Follow the Money: Clinton Campaign's Final Week of Television Spending
(Updated 2PM 11-2-16) During their coverage of the Watergate scandal, Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein were told to "follow the money." In trying to determine which are the…
Charlie Cook
November 2, 2016
National Politics
Only the Margin Seems in Doubt in the Presidential Race
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 28, 2016 With just over 10 days to go before Election Day, the outcome of the presidential contest seems settled though…
Charlie Cook
November 1, 2016
National Politics
For GOP, Time To Worry, Not To Panic
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 24, 2016 For several weeks many Republican candidates and operatives have been fretting that Donald Trump’s misbe…
Charlie Cook
October 28, 2016
National Politics
Donald Trump Leaves a Car Wreck Behind
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 21, 2016 Republicans will now have four years to think about what they did to themselves this year, plenty of time to contem…
Charlie Cook
October 25, 2016
National Politics
Clinton Takes Command, But Senate Still a Toss-Up
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 18, 2016 It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t…
Charlie Cook
October 21, 2016
National Politics
Trump’s Travails Roil Down-Ballot Races
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 14, 2016 What a difference a week makes. In the wake of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looked to be…
Charlie Cook
October 18, 2016
National Politics
Elites Shouldn’t Ignore the Lessons of 2016
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 7, 2016 The headline of a column by The New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg in Thursday’s paper asked the question, “Editori…
Charlie Cook
October 11, 2016
National Politics
Clinton Cruises With a Lead of 3 to 5 Points
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 4, 2016 Let’s start with the caveats: A lot can happen in the 34 days before the election. The polls are not as reliable as…
Charlie Cook
October 7, 2016
National Politics
Clinton Firms Up Her Narrow Lead
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 30, 2016 We’re in the political twilight period that comes after the first presidential debate but before reliable…
Charlie Cook
October 4, 2016
National Politics
Clinton’s Narrow Lead Could Produce an Electoral Rout
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 23, 2016 This presidential race is very, very close, with the poll averages showing Hillary Clinton nursing a small…
Charlie Cook
September 27, 2016
National Politics
Clinton’s Up, But Hedge Your Bet
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 19, 2016 If you focus on the national presidential horse-race polls, Hillary Clinton has a sliver of a lead over Don…
Charlie Cook
September 23, 2016
National Politics
The Race Tightens But the Math Heavily Favors Clinton
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 16, 2016 Polls coming out every day make it clear that this presidential race has gotten very close. National surveys…
Charlie Cook
September 20, 2016
National Politics
Hillary Clinton’s Dumb Campaign
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 12, 2016 It’s interesting to watch Hillary Clinton’s highly schizophrenic campaign. On one level, in terms of strategy…
Charlie Cook
September 16, 2016
National Politics
The Race Tightens, But It’s Still Clinton’s to Lose
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 9, 2016 There’s no doubt that the presidential race has tightened up, but the operative question is whether Donald Trump has…
Charlie Cook
September 13, 2016
National Politics
Surveying the Labor Day Election Landscape
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 1, 2016 The start of Labor Day weekend, the traditional beginning of the general election, is a good time to take…
Charlie Cook
September 6, 2016
National Politics
The Story of 2016: Republicans Feeling “Betrayed” by Their Leaders
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 30, 2016 Arguably the biggest political story of the past year has been the breadth and depth of the anger and alienation…
Charlie Cook
September 2, 2016
National Politics
Why Trump’s Immigration Switch Won’t Move the Needle
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 26, 2016 The topic du jour is Donald Trump’s attempted walk-back of his position on immigration—roughly speaking, from an…
Charlie Cook
August 30, 2016
National Politics
Predicting Turnout in an Unpredictable Race
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 22, 2016 This presidential race seems to have stabilized at a point where the probability of Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump…
Charlie Cook
August 26, 2016
National Politics
A Big Presidential Win Doesn’t Guarantee Success Down-Ballot
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 18, 2016 The conventional wisdom holds that the worse a presidential candidate does, the more likely his or her party’s down-…
Charlie Cook
August 23, 2016
National Politics
Demography Explains Perceptions of Clinton and Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 12, 2016 This week a friend showed me the New Yorker cover from June 1, 2015 with a drawing of seven leading candidates for the…
Charlie Cook
August 16, 2016
National Politics
New August Electoral College Ratings
The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers…
Charlie Cook
August 15, 2016
National Politics
Doubting a Down-Ballot Wave
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 9, 2016 The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll puts Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by 8 points in the three-way tri…
Charlie Cook
August 12, 2016
National Politics
Is the Presidential Race Over?
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 5, 2016 Is the 2016 presidential race over? I suppose the answer to that question turns on how you define “over.” Is there…
Charlie Cook
August 9, 2016
National Politics
Digging Into the Postconvention Polls
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 2, 2016 Historically, polls start taking much greater predictive value around 30 days after the last convention, so the…
Charlie Cook
August 5, 2016
National Politics
One Nation, Divisible By Demography and Ideology
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 28, 2016 Many people have said this before, but it’s worth saying again: If a few years ago, someone wrote a political potboiler…
Charlie Cook
August 2, 2016
National Politics
Trump Gets Bounce From Convention and Now It’s Clinton’s Turn
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 26, 2016 Take your pick among the two major national polls released Monday morning: Either Donald Trump is ahead of Hillary…
Charlie Cook
July 29, 2016
National Politics
In the End, Cruz was True to Himself
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 22, 2016 With a one-two punch, Ted Cruz effectively launched his candidacy for the 2020 Republican presidential nomina…
Charlie Cook
July 26, 2016
National Politics
Searching the Polls for Clues in the Clinton-Trump Race
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 18, 2016 The Republican National Convention is now underway, with the critical question being whether it can reconfigure a race…
Charlie Cook
July 22, 2016
National Politics
Unavoidably, the Nice Tragedy Affects Politics in the U.S.
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 15, 2016 Tragedy strikes again, this time in the south of France. The bloodshed in Nice was just as horrific as the assaults in…
Charlie Cook
July 18, 2016
National Politics
Upbeat Democrats Get Bayh Boost
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 11, 2016 Democrats are feeling bullish these days, and former Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision to jump into Indiana’s Senate race adds to…
Charlie Cook
July 15, 2016
National Politics
Clinton Runs Free of Indictment
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 6, 2016 FBI Director James Comey’s announcement Tuesday morning that Hillary Clinton will not be indicted effectively re…
Charlie Cook
July 8, 2016
National Politics
A Deep Dive into the Race for the Senate
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 1, 2016 The word “volatile” doesn’t begin to describe the fight for a Senate majority this year. With the current split of 54…
Charlie Cook
July 5, 2016
National Politics
What Brexit Means for the Presidential Race
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 27, 2016. In terms of American politics, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union is something of a “Goldilocks” event. In…
Charlie Cook
July 1, 2016
National Politics
Trump Needs a Trick of Fates to Win
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 20, 2016. Last week, it was Detroit; Colorado Springs; Los Angeles; Newport Beach, California; Salt Lake City; Park City, Utah; and…
Charlie Cook
June 24, 2016
National Politics
Republicans Need to Focus on Down-Ballot Candidates
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 17, 2016. The range of emotions for most Republicans I know—from present and former members of Congress, to Hill staff, to…
Charlie Cook
June 21, 2016
National Politics
Why Orlando Won’t Decide the Race
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 13, 2016. It is all too predictable. A tragic event occurs, and it appropriately dominates broadcast and cable news, talk radio,…
Charlie Cook
June 17, 2016
National Politics
Voting for the Lesser of Two Evils
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 9, 2016. Generally speaking, much of the focus in elections is on the “swing vote.” This is usually defined as undecided voters;…
Charlie Cook
June 14, 2016
National Politics
Heartburn Over Sanders and Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 7, 2016. Two of the most pressing questions in American politics right now are whether and how Bernie Sanders will make things…
Charlie Cook
June 10, 2016
National Politics
Why Clinton Should Win: There Are More Democrats
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 2, 2016. As a general rule, partisans stick together. The national exit polls conducted in 2012 showed that President Obama…
Charlie Cook
June 7, 2016
National Politics
The Trump-Clinton Race Is Not As Close As It Looks
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 30, 2016. The latest round of polls released prior to Memorial Day weekend, which showed Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a…
Charlie Cook
June 3, 2016
National Politics
Hold Your Noses on Election Day
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 23, 2016. Hardly anyone predicted a Trump-Clinton presidential matchup. Even more surprising, the race is fundamentally tied right…
Charlie Cook
May 27, 2016
National Politics
Anti-Trump vs. Anti-Clinton Voters
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 19, 2016. Now that we know what the general-election matchups will be, a couple of thoughts are in order. First, while I give…
Charlie Cook
May 24, 2016
National Politics
Throwing the Dice on a Veep Pick
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 16, 2016. When people discuss vice presidential running mates, I’m always surprised that they tend to get fixated on one factor to…
Charlie Cook
May 19, 2016
National Politics
Clinton Must Motivate, Trump Needs to Persuade
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 12, 2016. It’s a little ironic that the presumptive nominee in one party put all his rivals on the sidelines after winning…
Charlie Cook
May 17, 2016
National Politics
Can the GOP Pick Up the Pieces?
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 9, 2016 All of us in the political-pundit class could be wrong again about Donald Trump, along with 25 of the 29 national polls…
Charlie Cook
May 13, 2016
National Politics
The Numbers Favor Hillary Clinton Over Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 5, 2016. Now that the presidential nominations are set for each side, pollsters are busy surveying states and, with their…
Charlie Cook
May 10, 2016
National Politics
Hill Republicans Jittery Over Trump Nomination
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 2, 2016. A lot of Republicans are walking around in a daze these days, trying to figure out the implications of Donald Trump…
Charlie Cook
May 6, 2016
National Politics
Trump Couldn’t Possibly Win—Except That He Probably Will
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 28, 2016. The thing that I never thought would happen is really happening. The idea that the Republican Party would nominate…
Charlie Cook
May 3, 2016
National Politics
Clinton’s Best Friend? The GOP
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 25, 2016 Hillary Clinton finds herself these days moving from good news to bad news and then to good news again. The first bit of…
Charlie Cook
April 29, 2016
National Politics
Economic Blues Define Campaign
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 18, 2016 Growing up in the South, I learned the expression, “When Momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.” This year, it seems…
Charlie Cook
April 22, 2016
National Politics
A True Right vs. Left Choice Looms
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 14, 2016 Maybe I am all wet, but I remain convinced that the first ballot at the Republican National Convention is a do-…
Charlie Cook
April 19, 2016
National Politics
To Win, Clinton Needs to Heal
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 11, 2016 Please spare me the tiff between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders over who is qualified to be president. Article…
Charlie Cook
April 15, 2016
National Politics
It’ll Be Cruz or Trump, Like It or Not
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 7, 2016 Whenever I hear Republicans wax on about the possibility of nominating someone other than Donald Trump or Ted…
Charlie Cook
April 12, 2016
National Politics
GOP Gripped by Gloom as Democrats Stay Hopeful
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2016 Republican pros fall into two categories: The optimists are deeply concerned, while the pessimists are despond…
Charlie Cook
April 8, 2016
National Politics
Trump Candidacy Stoked by Clinton
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 31, 2016 The newspapers, airwaves, and Internet are alive with predictions that the political tide has turned against Don…
Charlie Cook
April 5, 2016
National Politics
The Gulf Between the Donor Class and the Working Class
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 28, 2016 Nicholas Confessore’s terrific, front-page piece in Monday’s New York Times dovetailed nicely with a March 11 rant…
Charlie Cook
April 1, 2016
National Politics
Donald Trump’s Glass Jaw
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 24, 2016 It’s easy to understand why Republicans are so frustrated about this presidential election. Both history and a…
Charlie Cook
March 28, 2016
National Politics
Trump Tremors Go Down Ballot
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 21, 2016. With a contested Republican National Convention as the most likely outcome this unlikely primary season, Re…
Charlie Cook
March 25, 2016
National Politics
For GOP Establishment, There Are Only Bad Options
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 17, 2016 For the more conventional, establishment-oriented Republicans in this presidential election, things could…
Charlie Cook
March 21, 2016
National Politics
Crunch Time for Donald Trump
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 14, 2016. If you lined up a dozen or two national political reporters and analysts, most would say that Donald Trump will…
Charlie Cook
March 17, 2016
National Politics
“Stop Trump Tuesday” in Florida and Ohio
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 10, 2016. In this screwball year, it’s dangerous to say anything definitively, but it sure looks like Tuesday’s Ohio Repub…
Charlie Cook
March 14, 2016
National Politics
Trump’s the Front-Runner, But He’s No Shoo-in
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 3, 2016 The conventional wisdom seems to be moving to the assumption that Donald Trump is the inevitable Republican…
Charlie Cook
March 7, 2016
National Politics
Trump Barrels Along the Fast Track
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 25, 2016 This has been a year in which all of the conventional rules of politics have been suspended, at least temporarily…
Charlie Cook
March 3, 2016
National Politics
Will Trump Keep Getting a Pass?
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 25, 2016 Friday, after Thursday night’s GOP primary debate,* we certainly won’t know whether Donald Trump’s upward traject…
Charlie Cook
February 29, 2016
National Politics
Don’t Blame Jeb Bush’s Fall on Campaign Strategy
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 22, 2016 It’s been said all too often in recent days that blame for the demise of Jeb Bush’s candidacy lies with his campaign…
Charlie Cook
February 25, 2016
National Politics
At Last, Trump’s Circus Tent Starts to Sag
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 18, 2016 For the record, I have never said, written, or thought that Donald Trump would win the Republican nomination.…
Charlie Cook
February 23, 2016
National Politics
The GOP Nod Will Go to Trump or Cruz, Unless the Establishment Sorts Itself Out
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 15, 2016 With every passing day, the odds increase that the Republican presidential nomination will come down to a choice…
Charlie Cook
February 18, 2016
National Politics
After Scalia Dies, It’s Hardball Politics As Usual
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 14, 2016 This past weekend, we saw a microcosm of much of what is wrong in American politics. About an hour after it was con…
Charlie Cook
February 17, 2016
National Politics
Hillary Clinton Will Win the Nomination, But Then What?
Hillary Clinton is facing a myriad of challenges in her bid to become president, but losing the Democratic nomination to Bernie Sanders is not one. Ironically while Clinton was…
Charlie Cook
February 15, 2016
National Politics
GOP Establishment in a Tizzy
For leaders of the Republican establishment, things could not look much worse. They desperately need one of the four conventional, mainstream candidates—Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John…
Charlie Cook
February 11, 2016
National Politics
Charlie Cook on the New Hampshire Primary
Republicans 1. Trump had a great night. While I am still quite sure that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee; unlike in the Iowa Caucus, he did turn in an impressive performance and…
Charlie Cook
February 10, 2016
National Politics
In the Iowa Caucuses, Look for Results That Surprise You
Both the GOP and Democratic races will turn on whether emotion tops organization. The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night can be expected to provide some clarity in the contests for the Demo…
Charlie Cook
February 2, 2016
National Politics
A Time for Culling, Not for Winning
It’s now less than a week before the Iowa caucuses, two weeks before the New Hampshire primary, and thus time for political aficionados to whip themselves into frenzy. People often become…
Charlie Cook
January 29, 2016
National Politics
For Clinton, It’s Time to Stay Cool in Iowa and New Hampshire
Sometimes politicians get into a tough position with no easy way out, and their best option is just to plow straight ahead. Hillary Clinton is now in such a position. The most reputable…
Charlie Cook
January 22, 2016
National Politics
Talking About Trump May Pay Off on Television, But…
It’s getting increasingly annoying to watch people who ostensibly know a lot about politics going on television and saying things that I am reasonably sure they don’t really believe.…
Charlie Cook
January 15, 2016
National Politics
Trump, Cruz, and a Cage Fight
The preseason phase of the presidential campaign is now officially over, so what can we expect—that is, if anything can really be expected this year? Certainly few, if anyone, anticip…
Charlie Cook
January 8, 2016
National Politics
What’s on the Line in Las Vegas
As we get older, some of us accumulate pet peeves. For me, this is one: when journalists write of an upcoming event as tantamount to a turning point in the history of civilization, or at…
Charlie Cook
December 18, 2015
National Politics
Damned if He Spoke and …
Never having been president, I can only guess that the day of the Kennedy Center Honors extravaganza would be one of the most enjoyable of the year. Not the part about dressing up in form…
Charlie Cook
December 11, 2015
National Politics
Both Sides Now
An age-old argument among political operatives is the relative importance of persuasion versus turnout. One group makes the case that scarce campaign resources should go toward tar…
Charlie Cook
December 7, 2015
National Politics
The GOP’s Stages of Grief
Eight years ago, I declared that I would win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani won the Republican presidential nomination, even though he was sitting atop the polls. With Donald…
Charlie Cook
December 4, 2015
National Politics
Of Paris and (Would-Be) Presidents
Last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris amounted to a 9/11 event for the French and, for Americans, a vivid memory of that horrific day 14 years ago. It also reminds us that we could very well have…
Charlie Cook
November 24, 2015
National Politics
The Specter of …Normalcy
Few would argue with the premise that, in the five months since June, presidential politics have behaved in extraordinary ways. The “Feel The Bern” surge of Bernie Sanders on the left and the…
Charlie Cook
November 20, 2015
Louisiana Governor
Louisiana Governor: Vitter’s Struggles Move this Race to Lean Democrat
To be honest, I am very surprised that the Louisiana governor’s race has become hotly contested. I didn’t expect that we would move it to the Toss Up as we did on October 26 just after the primary,…
Charlie Cook
November 13, 2015
Governors Overview
As Kentucky Goes…
Just a week ago, before the off-year elections, Democratic strategists were feeling bullish about their prospects in the South. In Louisiana, a Democrat had surpassed the state’s senior senator on…
Charlie Cook
November 10, 2015
National Politics
In Search of the Anti-Politician
You can look at polls and read news accounts all day long, but the frustration, despair—and, in some cases, rage—among a multitude of Republican voters can be lost in the numbers. Better to let them…
Charlie Cook
November 3, 2015
National Politics
Republicans, Obsessed
Question: What’s the difference between the House Select Committee on Benghazi’s hearings last week and a train wreck? Answer: Once a train is coming off the rails, the passengers know it…
Charlie Cook
October 30, 2015
National Politics
The Two Faces of the GOP
Defying the predictions of just about everyone who watches politics even remotely, the two nontraditional Republican presidential contenders remain at the top of just-released opinion polls. Public…
Charlie Cook
October 27, 2015
National Politics
Speaker’s Choice
He doesn’t want the job—Paul Ryan has made that abundantly clear—but Republicans still hope that the Ways and Means Committee chairman will change his mind and seek the House speakership.…
Charlie Cook
October 23, 2015
National Politics
Experience? Fuhgeddaboudit!
Given the prevailing anger at Washington and career politicians, it shouldn’t be a surprise that voters increasingly see experience as overrated. An opinion poll conducted nationwide by the Pew…
Charlie Cook
October 13, 2015
National Politics
The GOP’s Senate Worries
Incumbents elected in the 2010 midterms will face an electorate that is demographically more daunting in a presidential year. No matter how entertaining the circus of the presidential cam…
Charlie Cook
October 9, 2015
National Politics
The GOP’s Culture War
One of my favorite work-related pastimes is to comb through public opinion polls. Like a miner panning for gold nuggets, I’m searching for a new insight or something that illustrates a point more…
Charlie Cook
October 6, 2015
National Politics
Self-Immolation, Times Two
A few weeks before the 2010 election, I ran into then-House Minority Leader John Boehner at a reception. President Obama’s approval ratings were tanking, the Affordable Care Act that…
Charlie Cook
October 2, 2015
National Politics
Is the Earth Returning to Its Axis?
One or even two opinion polls don’t constitute a trend, and it’s fool hardy to put too much emphasis on such a small sampling. But the first live-telephone interview survey released after last week’s…
Charlie Cook
September 25, 2015
National Politics
Charlie Cook on the Meaning of Boehner's Resignation
In the wake of Speaker John Boehner’s resignation from Congress as well as national polls and other developments, it is hard to say which party should be more afraid - Republicans whose party seems…
Charlie Cook
September 25, 2015
National Politics
Hey, Let’s Chill Out
In this tumultuous presidential race, it’s time for people to step back and take a deep breath. Whenever I hear someone say, “This time is different,” I have to repress the urge to roll my eyes. In…
Charlie Cook
September 22, 2015
National Politics
The ‘Scarlet P’
Normally, the hopes and fears of the two major political parties are roughly symmetric. If one party is worried or pessimistic, the other party is usually hopeful or optimistic. There are occasional…
Charlie Cook
September 18, 2015
National Politics
The Democrats’ Distress
It’s start with the children’s book and recent movie, Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, then substitute Hillary Clinton for Alexander and year for day. Hardly original: A…
Charlie Cook
September 15, 2015
National Politics
Those Renegade Republicans
Is the Republican Party going rogue? It’s hard to look at the opinion polling in the GOP presidential nomination contest and conclude anything else. As unexpected as many of the developments on the…
Charlie Cook
September 11, 2015
National Politics
An Early Look at the Electoral College
In less than a year, both parties will have selected their presidential nominees and running mates. With Labor Day, the final stretch of campaign 2016 will begin. Unfortunately most Americans will…
Charlie Cook
September 8, 2015
National Politics
Interesting Stuff We Thought You Might Want to Read
While I remain skeptical about a Biden candidacy, barring Hillary Clinton's situation worsens greatly in the coming weeks, his former Chief of Staff and Senate successor Ted Kaufman posted a link on…
Charlie Cook
September 3, 2015
National Politics
Charlie's Quick Reaction to the First GOP Debate
The biggest winner was Fox News. The questions were tough but fair, no one can accuse Fox of pulling their punches. Donald Trump came into the debate with a big lead in the polls so they reserved…
Charlie Cook
August 7, 2015
National Politics
Biden vs. Clinton Buzz Adds to 2016 Intrigue
It certainly is hard for me to relate to University of Alabama and New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath's 1969 fun autobiography, I Can't Wait Until Tomorrow ... 'Cause I Get Better-Looking Every Day…
Charlie Cook
August 6, 2015
National Politics
The Trump Conundrum
August is arriving, and we are entering week six of Donald Trump's rise—first into the double digits, now into first place—in the national polls for the Republican presidential primary race. While…
Charlie Cook
August 4, 2015
National Politics
Is Clinton's Tide Shifting?
The job of a political analyst is to have a theory of what is happening and why, and what will happen and why. But an analyst also has the responsibility to ask: Am I right? Are things changing? Have…
Charlie Cook
July 31, 2015
National Politics
Trump-Free Scenarios for 2016
With Donald Trump dominating the headlines and cable-news shows, it's easy to get caught up in the machinations of the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign and lose sight of the stakes—which are even…
Charlie Cook
July 28, 2015
National Politics
What Donald Trump's Surge Meant
It was inevitable: If given enough rope, Donald Trump would hang himself. Trump's statement Saturday in Iowa that Sen. John McCain was no war hero was all it took. This was so predictable; nobody…
Charlie Cook
July 24, 2015
National Politics
A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field
Let's face it, Donald Trump's campaign is going to be like a tire with a bad leak: The car will go on for a while, but losing speed and increasingly wobbling, so this vehicle is not likely to make it…
Charlie Cook
July 23, 2015
National Politics
Like Kids in an Ice-Cream Shop
The situation in which Republican voters find themselves these days is looking more and more like the experience of someone visiting a Baskin-Robbins. Walking into the ice-cream shop, one is…
Charlie Cook
July 21, 2015
National Politics
Will Trust Be a Deal-Breaker for Hillary Clinton?
One topic that often comes up in serious conversations about 2016 presidential politics is whether questions about Hillary Clinton's trustworthiness will be her undoing. Not surprisingly, many of her…
Charlie Cook
July 17, 2015
National Politics
Ben Wattenberg and the Changing 'Real Majority'
When I attended a funeral service last week for Ben Wattenberg, it really hit me how much our country and politics have changed in the 45 years since he and Richard Scammon wrote The Real Majority, a…
Charlie Cook
July 10, 2015
National Politics
A Momentous Week, and a GOP That Needs to Change
The momentous events of the last week can be interpreted in numerous ways. But one thing has become increasingly clear: The Republican Party needs to change. One of the key organizing principles—an…
Charlie Cook
July 3, 2015
National Politics
The Gender Subplot
One of the biggest questions in next year's presidential election will be what role gender will play in the voting and outcome, particularly if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wins the…
Charlie Cook
July 1, 2015
National Politics
A Better Way to Keep Score for the 2016 Field
Every once in a while, a really good idea or new way of looking at things comes along that is worth replicating. Early this month, J. Ann Selzer, president of Des Moines-based Selzer & Company…
Charlie Cook
June 26, 2015
National Politics
Beyond Personalities
It's human nature: People's ideas about presidential races are largely shaped by their perceptions of the personalities and images of the candidates. Both voters and the media become preoccupied,…
Charlie Cook
June 23, 2015
National Politics
Bernie Sanders and the Age Question
In recent weeks, many have started treating Sen. Bernie Sanders' campaign for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination seriously, but without addressing or even acknowledging the elephant in the…
Charlie Cook
June 19, 2015
National Politics
Will Republicans Break Their Pattern?
The Republican practice for determining a presidential nominee has long been to have a fight, then nominate whoever's turn it is to be the party's standard-bearer. It has been a relatively orderly,…
Charlie Cook
June 16, 2015
National Politics
Why Hillary Clinton Is Underwater
Hillary Clinton announced her presidential candidacy roughly eight weeks ago, and since then, a few things have become apparent. On the positive side for her, she has put together a first-class team…
Charlie Cook
June 11, 2015
National Politics
Top Dogs and Underdogs
Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. My colleague was bold,…
Charlie Cook
June 9, 2015
National Politics
Rand Paul's Risky Politics
Politics is always a risky business, with the odds of success the steepest for anyone running for president. So many factors have to line up just right to capture a nomination, and even then, the…
Charlie Cook
June 4, 2015
National Politics
File for Future Reference
Here are three pretty much unrelated political facts that may really surprise you and are definitely worth keeping in mind. First, according to Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik, a former Clinton…
Charlie Cook
May 26, 2015
National Politics
A Tough Question for 2016 Candidates
Several developments over the past week in the presidential race seem worthy of note. Hillary Clinton is coming under increasing fire from journalists and opponents for not answering many questions…
Charlie Cook
May 21, 2015
National Politics
The Field Is Flat
The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory—pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever's…
Charlie Cook
May 19, 2015
National Politics
Handicapping a Democratic Takeover
The battle for control of the Senate is finally underway and if early indications are correct, Republicans can be no more confident that they will keep the majority in the next Congress than…
Charlie Cook
May 15, 2015
National Politics
Chris Christie's Other Problems
There was a lot of talk last week about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's presidential hopes suffering a mortal blow after two of his associates, including a former deputy chief of staff, were…
Charlie Cook
May 7, 2015
National Politics
More 'Green Shoots' on the Hill
Last week, this column noted the avoidance of drama this past fall, when another government shutdown could have occurred, and the fact that in recent weeks, Congress eliminated the much reviled…
Charlie Cook
May 1, 2015
National Politics
How the Public Views the ACA Now
It's hard to argue that the Affordable Care Act of 2010 did not have a profound impact on the two most recent midterm elections. The legislation helped spawn the tea-party movement and give the…
Charlie Cook
April 28, 2015
National Politics
Glimmers of Hope on the Hill
The term "green shoots" is increasingly being used to describe the first positive signs of growth after an economic downturn. It is now possible to say that we are seeing green shoots on Capitol Hill…
Charlie Cook
April 24, 2015
National Politics
The GOP’s Voter-ID Problem
One of the more interesting changes in U.S. politics in recent years has been the increasingly parliamentary nature of voting behavior. Fewer people are straying beyond their party affiliations, we…
Charlie Cook
April 21, 2015
National Politics
For 2016, the Parties Are Trading Places
As discouraging as the partisanship, polarization, and dysfunction are in Washington these days, I confess to being really excited by the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign. Not that there is…
Charlie Cook
April 17, 2015
National Politics
Republican Bracketology
There are as many ways to look at presidential nomination contests as there are political aficionados. A few weeks ago, I wrote about my preferred method for understanding the GOP race: treating it…
Charlie Cook
March 31, 2015
National Politics
Clinton's Rough Road Ahead
The front-page headline in The Washington Post said it all: "Democrats in key states ask: Where is Hillary?" Putting aside the simple facts that the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are both 10…
Charlie Cook
March 27, 2015
National Politics
The Trouble With Being Jeb
For some time, polls have found former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with higher negative ratings than one might expect of someone who has never before run for president or, until recently, maintained a high…
Charlie Cook
March 17, 2015
National Politics
It's Not About the Emails: Clinton's Fate Hangs on Bigger Questions
If I knew with certainty that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was not going to be the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, I still wouldn't think this kerfuffle over her State Department…
Charlie Cook
March 13, 2015
National Politics
The Early Betting Lines for 2016
A question I often am asked is: "Who would you bet on to win the presidency?" Personally, I don't bet on politics, but here's my current take on the 2016 presidential race—with, of course, the caveat…
Charlie Cook
March 10, 2015
National Politics
The GOP's Damage Done
I confess to feeling terribly conflicted about the impact of last week's debacle over funding of the Homeland Security Department. There is no question that it was yet another example of Washington…
Charlie Cook
March 5, 2015
National Politics
Stress Tests for Republicans
Just days after the Sept. 15, 2008, fall of Lehman Brothers triggered the biggest financial crisis and stock-market plunge since the crash of 1929, I participated in a panel discussion of political…
Charlie Cook
March 3, 2015
National Politics
Jeb Bush's Headwinds
The race for next year's Republican presidential nomination is going to be fascinating on so many levels, but none more than the challenges facing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. On the one hand, more…
Charlie Cook
February 20, 2015
National Politics
The Outrage Dilemma
Americans by our nature are easily given to outrage, anxious to stop invaders as well as to avenge atrocities. Standing idly on the sidelines is not our way. Recent barbaric acts committed by Islamic…
Charlie Cook
February 17, 2015
National Politics
A Tough Path to the Presidency
There's an old joke that each morning, every U.S. senator looks in the mirror and sees a future president. From the time I moved to Washington, in 1972, through 2012, 46 sitting senators ran for…
Charlie Cook
February 12, 2015
National Politics
The Front-Runner’s Peril
While the fight for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination looks like it will be a wild roller-coaster ride, the Democratic contest, at least today, looks like a pretty boring affair. History…
Charlie Cook
February 10, 2015
National Politics
Romney Exit Opens the Field
The political world has been abuzz for the past four days about Mitt Romney's announcement that he would not seek the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. The decision by the 2012 GOP nominee and…
Charlie Cook
February 6, 2015
National Politics
When Trends Collide
The Gallup Organization's tracking poll released this past Monday was the second national survey this month to put President Obama's job approval rating at 50 percent. It was the first time since…
Charlie Cook
February 3, 2015
National Politics
The GOP Bracket Challenge
Those who avidly follow politics always seek clarity and understanding, simply to figure out what is likely to happen. At this point, at least on the Republican side, we're all going to have to…
Charlie Cook
January 29, 2015
National Politics
The GOP After Obama
While the 2016 presidential contest is starting to consume the attention of the political world, another immediate concern for the Republican Party ought to be what the party will stand for in the…
Charlie Cook
January 27, 2015
National Politics
Bush, Clinton and the Fatigue Factor
There are some surprising events that warrant being taken very seriously; others, well, not so much. Prior to Thanksgiving, it looked pretty unlikely that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would actually…
Charlie Cook
January 14, 2015
National Politics
A Wave—but No Tsunami
Go ahead and call it a wave. Heading into Election Day at The Cook Political Report, we expected a Republican gain of five to seven Senate seats and noted it was more likely to be on the higher end…
Charlie Cook
December 11, 2014
National Politics
Democrats Paved the Way for Their Own Decline
Much has been said about the long-term demographic challenges facing the Republican Party. Given how dismally Republicans fare with African-American voters—Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans…
Charlie Cook
December 5, 2014
National Politics
Swing Voters Hold Key to Immigration Debate
The winner of a political argument is often determined by two things: timing and framing. In the case of immigration reform—at least the specific battle over President Obama's executive order last…
Charlie Cook
December 1, 2014
National Politics
Are We Ready for Hillary?
Some time in the next six months, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to decide whether to seek the presidency in 2016. But how will she do if she decides to run? In 2008, the…
Charlie Cook
November 21, 2014
National Politics
The Importance of Running Scared
There's an old saying that there are only two ways for an incumbent to run: scared or unopposed. Many incumbents raise money almost continuously—call it paranoid or just cautious—as if a…
Charlie Cook
November 18, 2014
National Politics
Bad Decisions Came Back to Haunt Democrats in Midterms
Democrats are now sifting through the rubble of what was their party on election night, examining losses—and even near losses—that seemed fairly inconceivable just a couple of weeks ago. Such…
Charlie Cook
November 14, 2014
National Politics
How Big a Night Will It Be for the GOP?
This article appears in the November 4, 2014 edition of NJ Daily. The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats…
Charlie Cook
November 3, 2014
National Politics
Three Key Questions Will Determine What Direction Election Winds Are Blowing
The political environment usually is "set" in midterm elections around midsummer. At that point, it's generally easy to see which direction the partisan winds are blowing, and one usually has an idea…
Charlie Cook
October 31, 2014
National Politics
Questions and Possible Answers
After the obvious "Who's going to control the Senate after this midterm election?" question, several more questions come up in most political conversations these days. One recurring inquiry focuses…
Charlie Cook
October 28, 2014
National Politics
Kansas and Georgia Change the Equation on Senate-Majority Math
The prospects remain very tough for Democrats to hold onto their majority in the Senate, but there is a new scenario emerging—albeit still unlikely—that is turning the majority math a bit on its head…
Charlie Cook
October 24, 2014
National Politics
The Trench Warfare Begins
With just a little more than two weeks to go before the midterm election, Democrats are increasingly in need of a break or two to salvage their Senate majority. In my National Journal Daily column a…
Charlie Cook
October 21, 2014
National Politics
The End of an Era in Congress
The accolades in honor of Rep. John Dingell, who recently announced his retirement, have been both deafening and entirely deserved. In Congress’s history, one could probably count on…
Charlie Cook
March 6, 2014
National Politics
My Evolution on Gay Rights
As recently as a decade ago, the marriage-equality movement looked like a long, tough slog. Today, about 55 percent of Americans support same-sex marriage; it is now legal in 17 states,…
Charlie Cook
January 23, 2014
National Politics
Trian Run
An oft-asked question these days is just how the Republican takeover of the Senate—and the GOP's now-complete occupation of Capitol Hill—will affect the 2016 presidential election. More specifically…
Charlie Cook
December 1, 2012