A Recession and the Fight for the Democratic Nomination

The possibility of a global economic slowdown and/or U.S. recession has lots of folks speculating on what it would mean for President Trump's reelection prospects. Conventional wisdom assumes it would be a political death-blow to the President. Already struggling with anemic job approval ratings in what has been a solid economic environment, those job ratings would certainly plunge into the cellar if the economy sputters. 

The Iowa Caucus Is a Frontrunners' Nightmare

This week was the start of the Iowa State Fair. Besides being one of the few places in America where you can eat fried Oreos AND watch a baby pig being born, the Iowa State Fair is also the unofficial kick-off to campaign season in the state. Presidential candidates swarm around the Des Moines fairgrounds while being followed by thousands of reporters and camera crews.

Texas Exodus: Hurd's Retirement Moves TX-23 from Toss Up to Lean Democratic

Democrats got another huge boost on Thursday when GOP Rep. Will Hurd announced he will forgo reelection and pursue other opportunities "at the nexus between technology and national security." Hurd is one of just three House Republicans in districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the House's only black Republican and is now the sixth Republican⁠—and the third from Texas⁠—to announce retirement plans in the past ten days.

Olson Retirement Moves TX-22 from Lean Republican to Toss Up

House Democrats got a boost on Thursday when Texas GOP Rep. Pete Olson announced he wouldn't seek reelection in 2020. In 2018, Olson barely held off Democratic former foreign service officer Sri Preston Kulkarni 51 percent to 47 percent, and a competitive rematch was already brewing. In the second quarter of 2019, Kulkarni out-raised Olson $420,000 to $373,000. Now, this seat will move to the top of Democrats' takeover target list.

How Trump Could Lose by Five Million Votes and Still Win in 2020

[This article was originally published at NBCNews.com on July 19, 2019]

In the wake of President Donald Trump's tweets suggesting several nonwhite progressive congresswomen "go back" to their countries — three of them were born in the U.S. — it's tempting for Democrats to believe the comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and seriously damage his re-election prospects.

Suburbs Were the Battleground of 2018. Why Are Both Sides Doing Everything They Can to Alienate Them in 2020?

In 2018, suburban districts that were once the exclusive domain of the GOP, showed a willingness to support a Democrat for Congress. From Orange County, California to suburban Houston and Dallas, Texas, Democrats picked up districts that pre-Trump had never been serious Democratic targets. Of the 43 districts Democrats carried in 2018, half (22) were in seats Republican Mitt Romney had carried in 2012. Just eight of the pick-ups came from Obama-Trump districts.

How Durable Is Biden’s “Electability” Message?

For months now, we’ve talked about the pragmatism of Democratic primary voters. It's not ideology, policy or programs that are motivating vote choice in 2020, instead it is perceived electability.  And, of course, the biggest beneficiary of this framing of the contest is Vice President Biden. Despite his age and his 40+ year voting record poll after poll finds Biden far ahead of his rivals on the question of who has the best chance to beat Trump.

Amash's Departure From the GOP Moves MI-03 From Solid Republican to Toss Up

In an Independence Day op-ed in the Washington Post, Michigan Rep. Justin Amash declared he was leaving the GOP to become an Independent, writing that "the two-party system has evolved into an existential threat to American principles and institutions."  Amash later indicated he plans to run for reelection in 2020 as an independent, but also wouldn't rule out pursuing a Libertarian bid for president.

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