For months, my view has been that President Trump has roughly 35 percent of the electorate locked up; they will be with him come hell or high water. Another 45 percent will be against him no matter what. That leaves 20 percent up for grabs.
The possibility of a global economic slowdown and/or U.S. recession has lots of folks speculating on what it would mean for President Trump's reelection prospects. Conventional wisdom assumes it would be a political death-blow to the President. Already struggling with anemic job approval ratings in what has been a solid economic environment, those job ratings would certainly plunge into the cellar if the economy sputters.
This week was the start of the Iowa State Fair. Besides being one of the few places in America where you can eat fried Oreos AND watch a baby pig being born, the Iowa State Fair is also the unofficial kick-off to campaign season in the state. Presidential candidates swarm around the Des Moines fairgrounds while being followed by thousands of reporters and camera crews.
DETROIT — These last two nights in Detroit are a reminder of why those who have been involved in party politics and campaigns for a long time hate primary debates. They are the political equivalent of public family therapy. Disagreements, pent-up frustrations, and long-held grudges are out on display for the whole world to see.
Democrats got another huge boost on Thursday when GOP Rep. Will Hurd announced he will forgo reelection and pursue other opportunities "at the nexus between technology and national security." Hurd is one of just three House Republicans in districts carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016, the House's only black Republican and is now the sixth Republican—and the third from Texas—to announce retirement plans in the past ten days.
House Democrats got a boost on Thursday when Texas GOP Rep. Pete Olson announced he wouldn't seek reelection in 2020. In 2018, Olson barely held off Democratic former foreign service officer Sri Preston Kulkarni 51 percent to 47 percent, and a competitive rematch was already brewing. In the second quarter of 2019, Kulkarni out-raised Olson $420,000 to $373,000. Now, this seat will move to the top of Democrats' takeover target list.
For the past week, the media frenzy over President Trump's Twitter attacks on four Democratic congresswomen of color has centered on the question of whether GOP leaders will rebuke the president's divisiveness and open hostility to minorities and immigrants. Sticking with Trump, the theory goes, will further cleave the GOP from the suburban voters they need to win in 2020.
In the wake of President Donald Trump's tweets suggesting several nonwhite progressive congresswomen "go back" to their countries — three of them were born in the U.S. — it's tempting for Democrats to believe the comments will backfire with an increasingly diverse electorate and seriously damage his re-election prospects.
In 2018, suburban districts that were once the exclusive domain of the GOP, showed a willingness to support a Democrat for Congress. From Orange County, California to suburban Houston and Dallas, Texas, Democrats picked up districts that pre-Trump had never been serious Democratic targets. Of the 43 districts Democrats carried in 2018, half (22) were in seats Republican Mitt Romney had carried in 2012. Just eight of the pick-ups came from Obama-Trump districts.
For months now, we’ve talked about the pragmatism of Democratic primary voters. It's not ideology, policy or programs that are motivating vote choice in 2020, instead it is perceived electability. And, of course, the biggest beneficiary of this framing of the contest is Vice President Biden. Despite his age and his 40+ year voting record poll after poll finds Biden far ahead of his rivals on the question of who has the best chance to beat Trump.