October Overview: Handicapping the 2020 State Legislature Races
October 21, 2020 | Louis Jacobson
Since July 22, when we last handicapped the battle to control the nation's state legislatures, the Democrats have only continued to gain ground.
In our July report, we shifted eight chambers, six of them GOP-held, in the Democrats' direction. Now, in our new analysis, we're shifting another eight chambers towards the Democrats, along with one towards the Republicans.
Five of the shifts towards the Democrats involved chambers that were already considered competitive. In each case, a big reason for the shift is that the Democratic presidential nominee, Joe Biden, is running strong in the state, which should boost down-ballot candidacies. Two of the five chambers are shifting from Toss Up to Lean Democratic: the Arizona House and the New Hampshire Senate. The other three are shifting from Lean Republican to Toss Up: the Iowa House, the North Carolina Senate, and the Pennsylvania House.
Meanwhile, we're shifting both the Missouri Senate and the Missouri House from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, due to a tightening environment in the state for Republicans.
Finally, given increasing uncertainty about the political environment in Alaska and the complications of current and possible future cross-partisan alliances, we're moving the state's two chambers in opposite directions. We're shifting the Alaska House from Toss Up to Lean Republican as we shift the Alaska Senate from Safe Republican to Lean Republican.
As always, our assessment of the nation's legislative chambers – which we've published several times per cycle since 2002 – is based on interviews with a wide range of state and national political sources. We rate chambers on the following scale: Solid Republican, Likely Republican, Lean Republican, Toss Up, Lean Democratic, Likely Democratic and Solid Democratic. The categories labeled "Lean" and "Toss Up" are considered "in play." "Likely" chambers aren't expected to shift partisan control, but they could see some seat gains by the minority party.
Currently, the GOP controls 58 legislative chambers while the Democrats control 40 chambers. Nebraska's unicameral legislature, which is nonpartisan, isn't included in our count. (For this tally, we counted the Alaska House's coalition leadership as a Democratic-held chamber, even though Republicans nominally control more seats.)
The GOP's edge in the legislatures has narrowed from the 65 chambers the party controlled prior to the 2018 elections. That was already down from the 68 chambers the GOP controlled just before the 2016 elections.
The GOP has held the lead in state legislative chambers for a decade. As recently as the run-up to the 2010 election, Democrats held a 62-to-36 advantage in chambers, but that degree of Democratic control has suffered from a combination of a strong GOP redistricting cycle in 2010 and the slow but permanent loss of yellow-dog Democratic chambers in the South.
At this point for the 2020 cycle, we rate 19 chambers as competitive – slightly more than the 17 we saw as competitive in our final handicapping prior to the 2018 election.
Ominously for Republicans, the GOP holds 14 of the 19 vulnerable chambers on our list. This suggests that the Democrats are well-positioned to net up to a half-dozen new chambers this fall, and more if it’s a genuine blue wave.
Both parties control one chamber in which the opposite party is favored in our current analysis – the Democratic-held Alaska House and the Republican-held Arizona House.
We have placed seven Republican-held chambers in the Lean Republican category: the Alaska Senate, the Florida Senate, the Georgia Senate, the Georgia House, the North Carolina House, the Pennsylvania Senate, and the Texas House.
By contrast, the Democrats are playing defense in just three chambers we rate as Lean Democratic: the Maine Senate, the Minnesota House, and the New Hampshire House.
The Toss Up chambers, which featured a mix of partisan control as recently as July, are now exclusively Republican-held now that we have shifted two Democratic chambers out of the category: the Alaska House to Lean Republican and the New Hampshire Senate to Lean Democratic.
Among the chambers still rated as Toss Ups, the Republicans hold all six: the Arizona Senate, the Iowa House, the Michigan House, the Minnesota Senate, the North Carolina Senate, and the Pennsylvania House.
Here’s the breakdown for every legislature:
ALASKA
Senate: Lean R (shift from Solid R)
House: Lean R (shift from Toss Up)
In the Alaska legislature, the GOP controls the Senate, while a coalition of Democrats, Republicans, and independents control the state House. The GOP got some good news in October, when two of the coalition Republicans in the House announced that they will support creating a GOP-only majority after the election. That followed the Aug. 18 primary in which two of the majority coalition’s six GOP members lost to harder-core Republican partisans and a third died in a plane crash. For this reason, we’re shifting the Alaska House from Toss Up to Lean Republican, a rare bright spot for the GOP in the state legislature wars this year.
That said, this is all happening in an unusual political year. Alaska, a state that’s notoriously difficult to poll and that has a history of quirky voting patterns, is unusually competitive in 2020. In the presidential polling averages, Trump has been ahead by only about five points for several months running; even when accounting for polling uncertainty, that’s well below his 14-point margin of victory in the state in 2016. In addition, Alaska’s U.S. Senate and U.S. House races are considered competitive this year, and an oil-tax measure and an election reform measure are on the ballot as well, possibly juicing turnout in a way that helps Democrats.
The math in the state Senate is more daunting for Democrats. Still, we hear indications that a moderate, cross-party coalition could be possible in the upper chamber as well, depending on how the races shake out. While we still think the GOP has a clear upper hand for control in the Senate, we’re moving the upper chamber to Lean Republican as a hedge against the uncertainty in Alaska’s politics this year.
ARIZONA
Senate: Toss Up
House: Lean D (shift from Toss Up)
As recently as 2011-2012, the GOP held supermajorities in both legislative chambers in Arizona, but now Democrats are within striking distance in both, following a strong election cycle in 2018 that was driven by dissatisfaction about Trump among suburban and Hispanic voters.
In the 2018 elections, the Democrats were just a few hundred votes shy of forcing a 30-30 split in the House. The party now needs two seats to flip the House and three to flip the Senate, and the environment for the Democrats is, if anything, even stronger than it was in 2018. Democratic U.S. Senate challenger Mark Kelly is maintaining a strong lead over Sen. Martha McSally, and Biden is nursing a low-to-mid-single-digit lead in the presidential race. Ballot measures on legalized marijuana and school funding will likely motivate Democratic turnout as well.
This leads us to move the state House to Lean Democratic, while leaving the state Senate at Toss Up. Given how well the Democrats are doing in the state at the moment, however, we see the Senate as being on the cusp of becoming Lean Democratic as well.
ARKANSAS
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
Arkansas Republicans, who first achieved a majority in 2012, will remain firmly in control in 2020 and beyond.
CALIFORNIA
Senate: Solid D
Assembly: Solid D
In this solidly Democratic state, there’s no reason to think the Democrats will lose much if any ground in the legislature in 2020.
COLORADO
Senate: Likely D
House: Solid D
In just a few election cycles, Colorado has transitioned from a purple state to one that’s increasingly Democratic. The party should be able to keep its hold on both Colorado legislative chambers.
CONNECTICUT
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
Going into the 2018 elections, the Connecticut Senate was tied, and the GOP was in striking distance of taking over the House. The Democratic wave of 2018 put the kibosh on Republican hopes of consolidating power, with Democrats taking sizable leads in both chambers. Today, the possibility of Republican gains in Connecticut look even dimmer, with the FiveThirtyEight polling average showing Biden ahead, 59%-33%, and Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont getting good approval ratings for his handling of the coronavirus.
DELAWARE
Senate: Likely D
House: Solid D
Delaware has become a securely Democratic state in recent years, so despite the close margin in the state Senate – which produced a tie with one vacancy as recently as 2017 – the Democrats are odds-on favorites to keep control in both chambers. Oh, and home-stater Joe Biden is running for president.
FLORIDA
Senate: Lean R
House: Likely R
Despite its perennial swing state status, Florida Democrats haven’t controlled either legislative chamber since the mid-1990s. This year, Democrats are buoyed by the fact that Biden is performing strongly in polls of Florida, especially among seniors, who are a major voting group and are expressing concern about the coronavirus pandemic. GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ handling of the outbreak has become a lightning rod for critics and could hurt the party’s image in some quarters.
Still, it’s not clear that even a possible Biden victory would be enough to drag Democrats across the line in enough seats to take over either chamber. The Democrats would need 14 seats to flip the House and four to flip the Senate. Observers suggest Democrats will probably pick up a few seats in the House and one or two in the Senate; if that holds, it would not be enough to flip either chamber.
GEORGIA
Senate: Lean R
House: Lean R
While the odds remain against a Democratic legislative takeover in 2020, it’s not out of the question, thanks to demographic and partisan changes in the Atlanta suburbs. In the presidential race, Biden remains in a virtual tie with Trump in the state, and early turnout for Democrats has been strikingly high. The Democrats would need to net 16 seats to take control of the House and eight to take the Senate. As with Florida, it’s not clear that a Biden victory in Georgia would have coattails in legislative races; ticket-splitting could dash Democratic hopes in enough districts to make a takeover impossible. Still, Republicans are spending heavily in the state, so it appears they are worried.
HAWAII
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
The Democrats’ wide margins in the Hawaii legislature are safe for the foreseeable future.
IDAHO
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
The Republicans have nothing to worry about in solidly red Idaho.
ILLINOIS
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
Ethical problems are swirling around legendary and long-serving Democratic House Speaker Mike Madigan, as federal prosecutors settled with Commonwealth Edison earlier this year over allegations that the utility had given jobs and contracts to associates of Madigan. While Madigan has not been personally implicated, the case will only worsen the state’s reputation for less-than-clean politics.
That said, there’s no indication that this will matter electorally this year. The Democrats have built up a solid cushion in Illinois, thanks to the imbalance between populous, Democratic Chicagoland and more sparsely settled Republican downstate. This is the fifth election under a strongly Democratic map, and because of staggered terms, only one-third of the Senate seats are even up this year. The Democrats have maintained a big cash edge over the GOP, and Republican candidate recruiting has been underwhelming.
INDIANA
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
Not much over a decade ago, the Democrats controlled the Indiana House. Since then, however, Indiana Republicans have solidified their stronghold on both chambers of the legislature. Today, both chambers are safe for the GOP.
IOWA
Senate: Likely R
House: Toss Up (shift from Lean R)
While Iowa voted for Trump by 10 points in 2016, the state is nip-and-tuck between Biden and Trump this year. The margin in the state Senate is too wide for the Democrats to overcome in one cycle, but the Democrats would need to net just four seats to take the House, and they have a few paths to get there. We’re shifting the House from Lean Republican to Toss Up.
KANSAS
Senate: Likely R
House: Likely R
There’s little question that the Republicans will maintain numerical majorities in both chambers after the 2020 election, but the Democrats only need to gain one state House seat and two state Senate seats to break GOP supermajorities, which would aid Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly, especially in determining redistricting outcomes.
Making those gains is now a real possibility. Indeed, the relative strength of Biden in the state and the strong U.S. Senate candidacy of Democrat Barbara Bollier seems to be enhancing out strong suburban turnout in swing areas such as Johnson County near Kansas City. That could have a ripple effect for Democrats in legislative races.
Ironically, even if Democrats boost their numbers in the legislature, it will probably turn more conservative anyway, since seven moderate Republicans lost to more conservative challengers in the August primaries. Democrats will win some of those seats, but the decline of moderate Republicans will likely produce a more ideological legislature on balance.
KENTUCKY
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
The GOP has a firm grip on both chambers in Kentucky.
MAINE
Senate: Lean D
House: Likely D
Maine Democrats have decent margins in both chambers, and they are coming off a 2018 election in which a Democrat, Janet Mills, took back the governorship. Democrats now feel even stronger than they did earlier this year; even Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, which allocates an electoral vote in the presidential race, seems to be slipping away from Trump, who won it easily in 2016. We’re keeping the more narrowly divided Senate at Lean Democratic and the House at Likely Democratic.
MASSACHUSETTS
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
The Democrats have a stranglehold on the Massachusetts legislature, and that’s not changing any time soon.
MICHIGAN
House: Toss Up
Michigan has no state Senate races this year, but each of the 110 seats in the House will be up in 2020, and the Democrats would need to net four seats to flip the chamber. (Maps from a newly created independent redistricting commission will not be in effect until the 2022 election.) Biden’s lead in Michigan has narrowed slightly in the state since the summer, but it remains in the high single digits, and Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, the target of a right-wing kidnapping plot, has maintained majority approval after her efforts to handle the coronavirus outbreak. The Democrats certainly have a shot at flipping the chamber, but we’re keeping this at Toss Up for now.
MINNESOTA
Senate: Toss Up
House: Lean D
Currently, Minnesota is the only state other than Alaska in which one party controls one state legislative chamber and the other party controls the other one. This year, both chambers in Minnesota are competitive.
After a bit of a summer slump in the state, Biden has widened his lead in Minnesota to the high single digits. The Democrats have a good shot at flipping the narrowly divided state Senate, but out of an abundance of caution, we’re keeping the chamber at Toss Up.
MISSOURI
Senate: Likely R (shift from Solid R)
House: Likely R (shift from Solid R)
After trending heavily Republican in recent election cycles, the national Democratic swing is reaching Missouri this year. In 2016, Trump won the state by 18 points, but the FiveThirtyEight average shows him leading by only about 6 points. That could lead to some GOP legislative losses on the margins, although the Republican edge in both chambers is too big for even a Democratic wave to flip control. Democrats are focusing their attention on the Senate, but we think both chambers could see a marginal Democratic shift. We’re moving both chambers from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
MONTANA
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
Montana this fall will be home to competitive races for U.S. senator, governor, state attorney general, and secretary of state, but the fight for control of the state legislature won’t be in much doubt. We see both chambers as safely Republican.
NEVADA
Senate: Likely D
Assembly: Likely D
For years, Nevada had competitive fights to control its legislative chambers. No longer; Nevada has become a state with a modest but distinct blue lean. The Democrats have a supermajority in the Assembly and are one short of a supermajority in the Senate. (With a Democratic governor, Steve Sisolak, that’s not as important a benchmark as it is in some states.)
Frustration with the coronavirus and its economic fallout, which has hit hospitality-heavy Nevada particularly hard, make it possible that the Republicans could pick up a seat or two in the Assembly, but they have little shot at taking the Senate. Democratic control after 2020 should continue.
NEW HAMPSHIRE
Senate: Lean D (shift from Toss Up)
House: Lean D
New Hampshire, with a small Senate but an enormous House, is known for its wild electoral swings. Just a small seat gain by the GOP would flip control in the Senate, but Trump has a polling deficit in the state in the low double digits. While Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is significantly better positioned to win another term, it’s doubtful that his coattails will be enough in this environment to help flip either chamber. We’re moving the Senate from Toss Up to Lean Democratic and keeping the House at Lean Democratic.
NEW MEXICO
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
The most notable development so far in New Mexico’s legislative campaign cycle occurred in the June primary, when five of seven progressive Democratic challengers ousted veteran Democrats with more moderate-to-conservative profiles. For the general election, at least three of these progressive primary winners will be defending rural seats, giving the GOP some opportunity to play offense. But Republicans will also be defending three seats in the Albuquerque area that will be at risk due to the suburban gravitation away from the GOP. Meanwhile, Trump’s position nationally has deteriorated to the point that he isn’t able to contest New Mexico the way he’d wanted to. This will likely hurt Republican enthusiasm down-ballot. We’re keeping both chambers in the Solid Democratic column.
NEW YORK
Senate: Solid D
Assembly: Solid D
After a long run of GOP control in the New York Senate (sometimes aided by breakaway Democrats), the Democrats now have a comfortable edge in the chamber in a state that’s remained solidly blue. Neither the Assembly nor the Senate is vulnerable to a party switch in 2020. On the contrary, Democrats are trying to cement a supermajority in the Senate.
NORTH CAROLINA
Senate: Toss Up (shift from Lean R)
House: Lean R
With a competitive presidential race this year, as well as contests for U.S. Senate, governor, and a bevy of statewide offices, North Carolina has continued to draw heavy political attention in 2020. Democrats are running strong in the gubernatorial and U.S. Senate races, and the Trump-Biden contest in the state is close. This gives Democrats hope for gaining ground in state legislative races.
Democratic seat gains now seem likely in both chambers, but of the two chambers, observers see a stronger shot at a takeover in the Senate. We’re moving the Senate to Toss Up and keeping the House at Lean Republican.
NORTH DAKOTA
Senate: Solid R
Assembly: Solid R
The Republicans are on ultra-safe ground in solidly red North Dakota.
OHIO
Senate: Likely R
House: Likely R
Earlier this year, Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder was arrested as part of a $60 million bribery case. But observers say this news hasn’t broken through widely to voters, and the Democrats don’t have enough money to make it a major campaign issue. The Republicans have wide margins in both legislative chambers, but Democrats could make gains in both, especially given Biden’s relative strength in the state compared to Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. We’re keeping both chambers at Likely Republican.
OKLAHOMA
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
There’s no indication that the Democrats will make up any significant ground on the GOP in Oklahoma.
OREGON
Senate: Likely D
House: Likely D
While Democrats in Oregon may need to worry a bit about their legislative supermajority status, both chambers should remain in Democratic hands. Any GOP pickups could be balanced out by Democratic gains, especially in a presidential year in a strong Democratic environment.
PENNSYLVANIA
Senate: Lean R
House: Toss Up (shift from Lean R)
Pennsylvania may be a swing state for higher offices, but it’s been pretty solidly red for a long while at the legislative level. In 2018, the Democrats picked up five Senate seats and 11 House seats. The Democrats now need to net nine seats to flip the House and four to flip the Senate.
Both parties will be grappling with the shift to heavy mail balloting, which could have unpredictable effects on turnout patterns. But if Biden lives up to his potential, he could help the Democrats in both chambers, especially in the House, where the path to taking over the chamber is a bit easier, despite the larger number of seats required. We’re shifting the state House from Lean Republican to Toss Up while keeping the Senate at Lean Republican.
RHODE ISLAND
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
The Democrats have an insurmountable lead in both chambers in Rhode Island in 2020.
SOUTH CAROLINA
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
The U.S. Senate race in South Carolina is tight, and Trump’s lead is narrower than his winning margin in 2016. But the GOP is in no danger of losing much ground in the legislature.
SOUTH DAKOTA
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
The GOP will have no problem maintaining its wide lead in South Dakota.
TENNESSEE
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
Tennessee’s legislative chambers were controlled by the Democrats as late as the mid-2000s, but those days are long gone. Today, Republicans have dominant control.
TEXAS
Senate: Likely R
House: Lean R
Democrats are excited about their prospects in Texas this year, and that includes a shot at winning control of the House, which would give the party a seat at the table for the post-2020 Census round of redistricting. If the Democrats do as well as they’re hoping, it could happen. But a seat-by-seat analysis from Rice University suggests that the Democrats will need to hold all of their competitive seats while picking up more than half of the GOP’s competitive seats. That’s possible in a genuine wave, but still a tall order. We’re keeping the House at Lean Republican and the Senate, which has fewer competitive seats, at Likely Republican.
UTAH
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
Ruby-red Utah may not be in love with Trump, but it likes its homegrown Republicans just fine. The GOP will easily control both chambers of the legislature for the foreseeable future.
VERMONT
Senate: Solid D
House: Solid D
While GOP Gov. Phil Scott remains favored to win reelection, he is unlikely to have much of a coattail effect in legislative contests. The Democrats should maintain their big margins in the Vermont legislature.
WASHINGTON
Senate: Likely D
House: Solid D
Most of the GOP’s competitive seats in Washington’s state House got wiped out in 2018, and Trump, who’s unpopular in the state, will be heading the ballot this fall, mostly to local Republicans’ detriment. The odd campaign environment during a pandemic makes it even harder for the minority party to make their case in a generally unfriendly state.
The main question is whether Democrats can secure a two-thirds supermajority this year. The margin in the Senate is closer than the one in the House; it’s possible that the GOP could gain a seat or two.
WEST VIRGINIA
Senate: Likely R
House: Solid R
The GOP has taken West Virginia by storm in recent years, and with the popular Trump on the ballot in 2020, even with reduced margins in the polls, it doesn’t look like a year in which Democrats are well-positioned to make major legislative inroads, despite the modest margins in the Senate. Even though the Democrats would need to net just four seats to flip the chamber, that is a decidedly uphill climb in a state as red as West Virginia.
WISCONSIN
Senate: Likely R
Assembly: Likely R
Wisconsin, which Trump won narrowly in 2016, now backs Biden by a high-single-digit margin. But the current GOP-drawn maps give the GOP a big measure of security. Of the two chambers, the numerical margin is closer in the Senate – the Democrats would need to net two seats to flip. However, the Democrats will also have to defend a couple of vulnerable seats. Even with a strong election for Biden, experts say the best the Democrats can hope for in Wisconsin is small gains in each chamber without a takeover.
WYOMING
Senate: Solid R
House: Solid R
Wyoming is solidly Republican; expect no major changes at the state legislative level in 2020.
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