October Update: Handicapping the 2020 Secretary of State Elections
October 5, 2020 | Louis Jacobson
With so much going on politically this year, the contests for downballot positions such as Secretary of State have had to struggle mightily for attention.
That’s true even in a year in which the coronavirus pandemic has forced major changes and controversies over how to cast ballots, a core responsibility of most Secretary of State offices. These offices are typically in charge of everything from implementing voting rules to running high-stakes recounts to defending against foreign cyber-intrusions.
By our reckoning, despite lots of discussion of election administration, the seven Secretary of State contests being decided in November haven’t changed in a fundamental way since we last handicapped them in late June.
We continue to rate only two of the seven races as competitive — either Toss Ups or leaning towards one party. We are keeping Montana’s open-seat contest as Lean Republican, and we’re doing the same for the reelection bid by Washington state Republican Kim Wyman.
In Oregon, the Republican-held seat looks likely to be flipped by the Democrats, who have become the dominant party in the state. By the same token, the Republican-held seat in West Virginia, an increasingly Republican state, looks likely to stay in the GOP fold, despite a spirited Democratic challenge.
The Democratic-held seat in North Carolina looks likely to stay in Democratic hands, even though the state has a bevy of hotly contested races this fall. The remaining two races are considered solid for the incumbent party: Missouri for the Republicans and Vermont for the Democrats.
The GOP currently holds 26 Secretary of State offices to 21 for the Democrats. Three states have no Secretary of State: Alaska, Hawaii, and Utah.
The lineup of competitive seats in 2020 continues to give Democrats a shot at whittling down the GOP edge, but not enough to flip to majority Democratic control.
In the handicapping below, the seats within each category are rank-ordered from most likely to go Republican to most likely to go Democratic.
State Secretary of State Ratings
Missouri: Jay Ashcroft (R)
Solid Republican
Ashcroft — the son of John Ashcroft, the former Missouri governor, U.S. Senator, and U.S. Attorney General — won the Secretary of State post easily in 2016. This year, he faces Democrat Yinka Faleti, a first-time candidate. Faleti has a compelling background — he’s a Nigerian immigrant and West Point graduate who has worked as a United Way executive, a lawyer with the firm Bryan Cave, and as executive director of Forward Through Ferguson, a policy nonprofit focusing on policing and economic justice in Ferguson. (Libertarian Carl Herman Freese, Constitution Party candidate Paul Venable and Green Party candidate Paul Lehmann will also be on the ballot.)
Several liberal groups have sued Ashcroft over what they call needless obstacles for voters to seek mail ballots. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch enthusiastically endorsed Faleti, accusing Ashcroft of consistently favoring greater restrictions on voting. But the race has drawn little public attention, which, combined with the state’s Republican leanings and the challenger’s lack of name recognition, suggest that Ashcroft should be on track to win another term.
West Virginia: Mac Warner (R)
Likely Republican
Warner faces Democrat Natalie Tennant, whom he ousted in 2016 after Tennant had served two terms. Tennant is probably the strongest candidate the Democrats could have secured for this race, and the Dominion Post of Morgantown endorsed her candidacy.
Tennant has accused Warner of being slow to make online business registration available. However, Warner has focused on election administration and received positive national attention for online voting for veterans. The two have also sparred over Warner’s firing of 16 employees during the transition from her administration to his. Tennant may end up doing better than other Democratic candidates in this increasingly Republican state, but actually winning the race will be a significant challenge.
Montana: Open seat (Republican Corey Stapleton lost a primary for the U.S. House)
Lean Republican
Montana’s open-seat contest pits Republican deputy Secretary of State Christi Jacobsen against Democratic state Sen. Bryce Bennett, who represents a relatively progressive district based in Missoula. The two have sparred over how the office has been handled under Stapleton, with Jacobsen touting their efforts to cut the budget and improve efficiency and Bennett describing the office as “plagued by corruption and incompetence.” (An auditor’s report has said that Stapleton utilized state vehicles for personal use, among other things.)
The two have also tussled over the plan by Gov. Steve Bullock to allow counties the option of universal mail ballots during the pandemic. Most counties have moved to participate, but Jacobson was unhappy with the policy, saying she favors in-person voting. Bennett has also criticized Jacobsen for opposing online voter registration, which is now used in many states.
Former Republican Secretary of State Bob Brown has endorsed Bennett (he had previously endorsed Hillary Clinton for president in 2016) and there are whispers that local election officers, including some Republicans, would like to see Bennett win. The Democratic Party in Montana is energized this year, with competitive races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, governor, and attorney general in addition to secretary of state. Moreover, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is polling only about eight points behind President Donald Trump, compared to Trump’s 21-point win in 2016.
Still, in the June primary, about 65,000 more votes were cast for the six Republican candidates than for the lone Democrat. Jacobsen maintains an edge, but a modest one.
Washington: Kim Wyman (R)
Lean Republican
The Secretary of State position is a top target for Washington Democrats in 2020 because it’s one of just two statewide offices that the party does not already hold, along with state treasurer. In fact, the GOP has held the office since 1960s. Wyman is running for a third term, and despite the current era of high partisan polarization, she has had a generally uncontroversial tenure and won reelection in 2016 by a 10-point margin.
Wyman faces Democratic state Rep. and former Seattle Port Commissioner Gael Tarleton. In the state’s top-two primary, Wyman got almost 51%, with Tarleton finishing second with 43%. Tarleton, a former defense intelligence analyst, has said that Wyman isn’t taking threats to election security strongly enough. But during the national controversy over voting by mail, Wyman has followed a generally bipartisan, technocratic path. On paper, Wyman has the edge. The only thing that could pull her under is a strong Democratic tide.
North Carolina: Elaine Marshall (D)
Likely Democratic
North Carolina’s Secretary of State contest has continued to attract approximately zero attention in this politically busy state, which is home this year to competitive races for governor, U.S. Senate, president, and legislature next year. (The office also doesn’t oversee elections; an independent state board of elections does.)
All this is good news for Marshall. She won her first election as Secretary of State in 1996 has become is something of an institution. Meanwhile, her opponent doesn’t seem likely to attract many Democrats or independents: Businessman and first-time candidate E.C. Sykes is running as a strong social conservative.
Oregon: Open seat (Republican Bev Clarno is not running)
Likely Democratic
Clarno was appointed Secretary of State by Gov. Kate Brown in March 2019 after Dennis Richardson, the Republican office-holder, died of cancer. Clarno is not running for a full term. (Since Oregon has no lieutenant governor, the secretary of state is next in line to the governorship, which is how Brown was elevated to the office.)
In the general election, Democratic state Sen. Shemia Fagan is facing Republican state Sen. Kim Thatcher. (An independent bid by former Republican state Rep. Rich Vial, the deputy to Clarno until he resigned in January, didn’t materialize.) Fagan has outraised Thatcher, including $50,000 from a political action committee affiliated with Brown, but Thatcher has secured enough money to establish a television presence.
Oregon has experienced a turbulent summer, from clashes in Portland to raging wildfires. But there’s no sign yet that Democrats will pay a price in a campaign year that’s been dominated by a presidential race that Biden is expected to win by double digits in Oregon.
Vermont: Jim Condos (D)
Solid Democratic
Condos will easily win a sixth term in this solidly blue state. He only faces minor opposition: frequent candidate H. Brooke Paige on the Republican ballot line, Cris Ericson on the Progressive line, and independent Pamala Smith.
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