Iowa Senate2020

When Democratic U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin announced his retirement in 2014, the party didn’t think that they would have a problem holding the seat. They immediately coalesced around then-U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley, who didn’t face primary opposition. Republicans faced a five-way primary. Joni Ernst, a state Senator at the time, wasn’t well known and was overshadowed by more conservative and better-funded challengers, including one who self-funded his campaign, but television ads that were a bit quirky and defined her as a true daughter of Iowa (remember castrating hogs?) propelled Ernst to the nomination with an impressive 56 percent of the vote. She beat Braley in the general election, 52 percent to 44 percent, despite being outspent. Ernst’s election marked the first time in nearly three decades that Iowa did not have a Democrat in the U.S. Senate.

Democrats hope to make this a competitive race, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign committee has endorsed businesswoman Theresa Greenfield. While the DSCC’s endorsement generally clears the field of competition, other Democrats aren’t fading into the sunset. Retired Admiral Michael Franken, attorney Kimberly Graham and ’18 IA-03 candidate Eddie Mauro remain in the race. Greenfield’s fundraising in the 2nd quarter didn’t meet expectations; it will be interesting to see how the Democrat fared in the 3rd quarter. Ernst finished the 2nd quarter with $3.44 million in the bank.

Democrats argue that Ernst is very vulnerable. They say that she doesn’t spend enough time back in the state and that she too often sides with President Trump. But, a Selzer & Co. poll for the Des Moines Register (February 10-13 of 803 adults) put Ernst’s job approval rating at 57 percent, the highest recorded in this survey. Her favorable rating was 56 percent. According to a Lake Research Partners (D) survey for the Mauro campaign (April 24-29 of 500 registered voters), Ernst was ahead of Greenfield, 56 percent to 24 percent, and led Mauro, 58 percent to 33 percent.

Republicans contend that Ernst does, in fact, spend time in the state and has amassed a very Iowa-centric record of accomplishment. Ernst has been the subject of a lot of press detailing her recent divorce, including court filings that described an abusive husband. She also recently discussed being a victim of sexual assault in college.

It doesn’t appear that Ernst is as vulnerable as Democrats contend that she is, but issues like trade or a weakened economy could easily trip her up. Iowa politics will get more than it’s fair share of attention next year beyond the presidential race. It is up to Democrats, though, to put this seat in play. For now, the race is in the Likely Republican column.

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