Analysis by Charlie Cook

National Politics American Democracy's Stress Test Is Nearly Complete In just 51 days, the United States will close a bizarre chapter of American history. Things will probably never return to “normal,” at least as defined by pre-pandemic standards, but to borrow the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 4, 2020
National Politics Voters' Message: Don't Be a Jerk, Don't Be a Socialist No one would dispute that the United States is a deeply and divided country. Beyond that, however, it’s difficult to reduce into one sentence what the electorate was saying on Nov. 3. My best try was… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 27, 2020
National Politics Look for Biden's Congressional Experience to Set the Tone The other day I heard a former career diplomat recalling the transition in 1988, the last time a vice president was getting ready to assume the top job. Vice President George H.W. Bush had been… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 24, 2020
Georgia Senate The Double Went Down to Georgia Apair of runoffs in Georgia in 50 days, on Jan. 5, will determine whether the 117th Congress will feature a divided legislative branch, with Democrats holding their narrowest House majority in most… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 20, 2020
National Politics Trump's Repeat Performance With Late-Deciding Voters Among the many moving parts of elections, the behavior of undecided voters can be among the toughest to suss out. Some don’t make up their minds until the last few days of a campaign, even on the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 17, 2020
National Politics Why Couldn't Democrats Ride the Blue Wave? This is both a narrowly and deeply divided country. If you wanted to sum up the election results in a few words, those words might be that by the barest of majority, voters were anti-Trump—but they… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 13, 2020
National Politics Lots of Turnout, Little Ticket Splitting Note: This article was originally published for the National Journal on November 6, 2020.  If someone told you a month (or even a year) ago that Joe Biden would win the presidency by holding all 20… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 10, 2020
National Politics What Began in 2015 May End on Tuesday Note: This article was originally published for the National Journal on November 3, 2020.  The most turbulent, unexpected, and generally unorthodox half-decade of politics in our lifetimes will soon… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 6, 2020
National Politics Don't Expect a Contested Election On a hundred-odd Zoom meetings, webinars, and conference call speeches that I’ve participated in over the past two months, virtual attendees continue to raise the possibility of a contested… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 3, 2020
National Politics The Six Faulty Assumptions on Which the Trump Campaign Rested Much of the thinking about the outcome of next Tuesday’s election has been binary: Does Joe Biden hang onto his lead in the polls and win, or can President Trump mount a successful comeback,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 30, 2020
National Politics Suddenly, Nearly Anything Is Possible in the Senate Races What had shaped up to be a fairly mild, predictable Senate cycle has become one of the hairiest in memory. To see why, let’s start with the stakes: The policy consequences of Republicans losing only… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 23, 2020
National Politics With Tension Draining Out of the Presidential Race, Will GOP Voters Stay Home? The drama and uncertainty that seems to have leaked out of the presidential race has found its way into the fight for control of the U.S. Senate. If you are into either electoral politics or… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 20, 2020
National Politics This Election, Republicans Should Take Nothing for Granted Whether you’re a Republican or a Democrat, liberal or conservative, predisposed toward labor or business, your eyes should now be squarely pointed to the races below the presidential level. Self-… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 16, 2020
National Politics Was Trump Ever Really a Favorite for Reelection? Earlier this week, this column suggested that there were some signs of an impending electoral blowout, pointing to the release of the first two quality post-debate polls. A national NBC News/Wall… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 13, 2020
National Politics Top GOP Hands Brace for a Blowout In talking to pollsters and political operatives in both parties over the past few days, I heard from nary a voice that thinks President Trump did anything other than hurt himself in last week’s… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 9, 2020
National Politics This Year, the Photo Finish Is Likely To Come in the Senate While most have been glued to the presidential race, I’ve long thought that the fight for control of the Senate might be the under-reported political story of the year—and I believe over the next… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 6, 2020
National Politics Close Senate Races Are Likely To Swing as a Group It happens every four years: Pundits begin to talk about how absolutely pivotal the presidential and vice presidential debates will be. At the same time, they conveniently ignore the reality that,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 2, 2020
National Politics Democrats Could Sail Through the Election and Then Drive off a Cliff For Joe Biden, the most dangerous people in this campaign are neither President Trump and his campaign operatives nor conservative members and what we used to call tea-party members. It's the left… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 29, 2020
National Politics Ginsburg's Death May Not Change the Fundamentals for Trump-Biden Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s enormous legacy, coupled with the timing of the vacancy she leaves behind, has already made the fight to replace her politically momentous. Yet it may not have a direct… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 25, 2020
National Politics The Issues Voters Aren't Focused On ... But Should Be My least favorite question is: “What do you think will be the most important issue in the upcoming election?” Even worse is when it comes in front of a group that is focused on a single issue. One… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 22, 2020
National Politics For More Voters Than Ever, It's the Party, Not the Person “I vote the person, not the party,” goes the old saying. And while many may still say that, in practice few do. Drew DeSilver at the incomparable Pew Research Center this month updated a great report… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 18, 2020
National Politics Trump's Ceiling Is Too Low for Him to Be Reelected The month of August, with its back-to-back political conventions, has passed without much fundamental change in the presidential race. Just as it was in July, post-Republican convention polling pegs… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 15, 2020
National Politics A Bounce Won’t Do It. Trump Needs a Post-Convention Vault. The question on a lot of minds over the next week will be whether President Trump and Joe Biden enjoy the customary 5- or 6-point post-convention bounce. Gallup polling from 1964 through 1992 showed… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 1, 2020
National Politics For the GOP, Much More Than the White House and Senate Hangs in the Balance The focus of political America this week will be on President Trump, not so much on the rest of the Republican Party. Indeed, the quadrennial national GOP confab this time will be less a party… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 28, 2020
National Politics Many Are Afraid To Say It, but This Is Not a Close Race As Joe Biden was preparing to give his presidential nomination acceptance speech Thursday night, for me like so many others it was a time to reflect on where the race stands. I was thinking about the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 25, 2020
National Politics Beware the Outlier Poll Five weeks ago, as both public and private polling showed independents shifting strongly against Republicans, this column quoted one of the most experienced campaign consultants in the GOP remarking… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 21, 2020
National Politics The Resource Trap Right now, things could hardly be looking brighter for Democrats. At the top of the ticket, the presidential race is looking as good as they could ever have hoped. Downballot, their majority in the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 18, 2020
National Politics Speculating on Biden's VP Choice Is Fruitless. I Did It Anyway. This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 11, 2020 Any day or hour, word should come out of Joe Biden’s choice for a running mate. Any discussion of who will or should be… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 14, 2020
National Politics Approve or Not, Trump Is Setting Unfavorable Downballot Conditions Looking at all of the public polling rolling in and hearing about a great deal of private surveys, it’s hard not to conclude that this election still looks horrific for Republican candidates. Among… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 11, 2020
National Politics The Polling Is Imperfect, but It’s Bad News for Trump Watching politics is an addiction, in which an assortment of websites provides hourly fixes, particularly in the form of poll aggregates and models like RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. I… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 7, 2020
lines National Charts How Much Public Interest Is Each Potential VP Pick Getting? Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 4, 2020
National Politics A 30-Year-Old Joe Biden Saw Himself Right Here As we await Joe Biden’s decision on his running mate, I’ve decided to crack open Jules Witcover’s comprehensive 2010 biography of the Delawarean, Joe Biden: A Life of Trial and Redemption. Younger (… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 31, 2020
National Politics Democrats' Anxieties Aren't About the Polls It is interesting how nervous Democrats are considering the lead that Joe Biden, their all-but-official nominee, has in both national polling and statewide surveys. The former vice president now has… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 28, 2020
National Politics Mining the Polls for Some Kernels of Hope for Trump When a president or party is going through a really tough time, it’s easy for a political columnist to come across like a broken record, a constant stream of bad news that draws suspicions of bias.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 24, 2020
National Politics Right Direction and Wrong Track Numbers Tell the Story of the Election A consistent theme in American politics, particularly over the last 60 years, has been continuity versus change. If things are going well, stay the course. If things are not going well, it’s time for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 21, 2020
National Politics A New Flood of Money to Republican Senators? In 2018, House Democratic challengers put staggering fundraising totals on the board, a foreshadowing of the party taking over the chamber. Now, we’re seeing equally eye-popping money numbers for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 17, 2020
National Politics It's Getting Late Early for the Trump Campaign For Republican candidates on the ballot this year in a competitive state or district, this would be a really good time to call your pollster and get into the field with a survey ASAP, if you haven’t… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 14, 2020
National Politics The Polls Weren't Far off in 2016. They Aren't Wrong Now, Either. Over the last few weeks, my political conversations have started to change. They now often lead off with a question like “Can President Trump turn this election around?” or “What would it take for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 10, 2020
National Politics It's the Education, Stupid Perhaps the most enduring line from the 1992 presidential election came not from one of the candidates but from Bill Clinton’s top campaign strategist, James Carville. “It’s the economy, stupid,” he… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 7, 2020
National Politics Without the Economy to Lean On, Does Trump Have a Path Back? For those with their fingers already crossed that President Trump can rejuvenate his reelection hopes, a lot of statewide data came out this week that may have them crossing the other set of fingers… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 30, 2020
National Politics As Is Their Habit, Independents Seem to Be Breaking Against the Incumbent In politics it is always important to keep your ears open and your antenna fully extended. When you have won the presidency with fewer votes than your major-party competitor, by a margin of about 78,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 26, 2020
National Politics 2020 isn't 2016. Because Joe Biden isn't Hillary Clinton. In a presidential election year that is so unlike any previous one, it’s not hard to compile a list of oddities. But one peculiarity is an almost mystical feeling in each party that is hardly… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 23, 2020
National Politics Will 2020 Be a Repeat of 1972 and 1984 or a Version of 1994? I have long viewed elections as being a bit like people, coming in various shapes, sizes, hues, temperaments, and developmental patterns. If you look close enough, you’ll find that each one possesses… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 19, 2020
National Politics One Trump Year May Equal Two Years of Another President When I was younger and newer to the world of politics, whenever old-timers would talk of historical patterns and tendencies about macro-political dynamics, I would invariably roll my eyes. Everything… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 16, 2020
National Politics Trump Poised to Face the Final Indignity When an incumbent falls well behind in a reelection campaign, it is not uncommon for him to suffer through all kinds of indignities. When that incumbent has not played well with the other kids, those… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 12, 2020
National Politics In These Tribal Times, Leads Don't Get Much Bigger Than Biden's Over the past week, the picture has grown ever more clear: Unless things change in a big way by Nov. 3—or whenever enough votes are counted to make it clear— Republicans are going to have a very bad… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 9, 2020
National Politics Voters Unlikely to Want to Stay the Course The events of Sunday weren’t quite a split-screen event, because the developments in question didn’t occur simultaneously. Yet the day certainly provided a disturbing juxtaposition. Sunday morning… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 5, 2020
National Politics The X-Factors in This Year's Presidential Race There are plenty of hazards in trying to predict who is going to win a presidential election five months away. There’s the chance of an unpredictable “Black Swan” event, and of course the normal ebbs… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 2, 2020
National Politics Senate Republicans' Spending Is Almost Entirely Defensive Enough of the talk about the possibility of another split between electoral and popular votes for president, which would be the third in 20 years. Here’s a better challenge for 2020 election… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 26, 2020
National Politics What Keeps Democrats up at Night Reasons for Republican concern, on both the presidential and downballot levels, have been well documented by this column and others. But Democrats have their own problems, some very real, some only… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 22, 2020
National Politics For Democrats, Unified Government Is No Longer Just a Fantasy The political outlook has changed pretty dramatically in recent months, though not in the way you might think. Even though U.S. coronavirus deaths now surpass the capacity of FedEx Field, these… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 19, 2020
National Politics Social Distancing as a Red-Blue Divide After nearly two months of the economy effectively being shut down, among the most bitter debates today is over when and how to reopen it. As one side sees it, the absence of a vaccine anytime soon… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 15, 2020
charlie stand National Politics Where Things Stand for the 2020 Elections Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 13, 2020
National Politics Can Republicans Chart a Post-Trump Future? Most economists expected to go through their entire careers not seeing economic reports as discouraging as those regularly seen now. Congress has already passed an unprecedented $2.3 trillion in… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 12, 2020
National Politics Biden's VP Pick Charts the Future Course for the Democratic Party While many of us are still in lockdown mode, the 2020 presidential election is anything but. In fact, it’s going into hyperdrive. President Trump’s campaign is now up with a new ad entitled “… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 8, 2020
National Politics Can the President Overcome the 'Trump Penalty'? President Trump endured plenty of ups and down during his first three years in office. Just not when it came to polling. The gap between his highest and lowest job-approval ratings is the narrowest… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 5, 2020
National Politics Biden May Be One and Done Regardless of Whether He Makes a Pledge News reports have suggested that at some point between now and the November election, the presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden will pledge that if elected, he would only serve a single term. Some… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 1, 2020
National Politics A Slew of Perilous Polls for Trump If we learned anything from the 2016 election, it was humility and caution. Elections are about human behavior and the future; by definition, there is a great deal of uncertainty. But it is very… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 28, 2020
National Politics Here Comes the Mud It’s generally dangerous to make predictions about presidential elections, but here’s one that you can take to the bank: This will be the ugliest, dirtiest, most mean-spirited presidential election… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 24, 2020
National Politics Trump's Briefings Now Providing Diminishing—Even Negative—Returns Until this week, if you were shown a graph of President Trump’s Gallup Poll job-approval ratings since taking office, and told that at some point along that graph, the U.S. dipped into a recession… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 21, 2020
National Politics What Is This Election Going to Be About? When incumbent presidents run for reelection, it is normally a referendum on that incumbent. If that turns out to be the case again this time, what specific aspect of the Trump presidency will be… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 17, 2020
National Politics Campaigning in a 'Half-Speed Economy' In this period of disorientation, few things are almost universally accepted. One of them is that the U.S. is headed into a recession. The latest edition of the University of Michigan’s highly… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 14, 2020
National Politics After the Pandemic, Then What? First, a disclaimer: This is not the column I set out to write. I spent much of Monday talking and emailing with a half-dozen pollsters and campaign strategists, discussing the stark political… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 10, 2020
National Politics What's Behind Trump's Surge in the Polls? As we begin the April of an election year, we political observers and analysts find ourselves in a peculiar position: Basically, there are no campaigns right now at the presidential, Senate, or House… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 7, 2020
National Politics How to Read Polls Amidst a Crisis Warning: Obsessive attention to polls can lead to nausea, vomiting, headache, hair loss, trouble sleeping, unusual dreams or sleepwalking, constipation, gas, skin rashes, seizures, heart or blood-… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 3, 2020
National Politics What's Behind the Trump Bump? For obvious reasons, little else is discussed in the world of politics these days other than the coronavirus and the $2 trillion emergency rescue package that the Senate passed early Thursday morning… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 31, 2020
National Politics A Battle Between Lives and Livelihoods The United States and the world have faced tough times before—deep recessions, stock-market crashes, and pandemics. But never the whole world all at once. I recently recalled the first time my… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 27, 2020
National Politics The New (Ab)normal Most everyone realizes, or soon will, that things are not going to be anywhere near normal for a long time. In fact, they could hardly be more fluid or uncertain. The United States and, for that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 24, 2020
National Politics Pandemic and Stock Market Losses Haven't Dented Trump's Numbers ... Yet The thoughts and concerns of most people these days are focused on their families, friends, neighbors, and colleagues. Zooming out, they’re also concerned about the impact the coronavirus pandemic… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 20, 2020
National Politics The Economy Could Finally Start to Drag Trump Down Mark Twain once said, “If you don’t like the weather in New England now, just wait a few minutes.” He could just as easily been talking about American politics these days. President Trump’s approval… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 17, 2020
National Politics Electoral College Math Grows Clearer The financial markets are in a free fall, economists are debating the probability of the economy tipping into a recession, health experts are discussing whether the coronavirus epidemic has or will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 13, 2020
National Politics Biden Bucks History and the Establishment Exhales Two different strains of virus hit the financial markets in recent days: One was the coronavirus; the other, a Bernie Sanders virus. COVID-19 is a slow-onset bug; the Bernie one was immediate and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 10, 2020
National Politics South Carolina Played the Role of New Hampshire The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is finally revealing some clarity. Things are happening now that usually happen during the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary phase of the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 6, 2020
National Politics Biden Is Not the Best-Positioned to Take on Bernie After this Saturday’s South Carolina primary and the 14 Super Tuesday state primaries three days later, we will have a better—though not necessarily definitive—idea of where Democrats are headed for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 3, 2020
National Politics Bonus Column: Where Does the Race Stand With 250 Days Left to Go? The late Israeli diplomat and statesman Israeli diplomat Abba Evan once said, "Arabs never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity." There are some Democrats today who might say this about their… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 28, 2020
National Politics 'Come to Jesus' Moment for Dems At the risk of adding religion to the already incendiary subject of politics, Democrats are approaching what Southerners often call a “come to Jesus" moment, namely the realization that there is a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 28, 2020
National Politics Bloomberg Hopes What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas The six-person debate on Wednesday night was the size that the debates should have been from the beginning, not the 20-candidate, two-night abomination we endured last June in Miami. Watching the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 25, 2020
National Politics Fast-Forwarding the Political Clock to 2021 This 10-day respite from primaries and caucuses gives us a good time to pause, to look past the Nov. 3 election and consider what may be the questions and topics dominating political discussions by… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 21, 2020
National Politics The Democratic Convention Won't Be 'Brokered.' But It Will Be Interesting Can we stop talking about the possibility of Democrats having a “brokered convention?” There are no brokers in American politics anymore, thus no brokered conventions. The chances are real and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 18, 2020
National Politics Dems Should Temper Their Disappointments One of the most amusing things about politics is how binary people tend to be in their thinking. Whether it is partisans and true believers, independents, or political reporters, things are often… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 14, 2020
National Politics Electability May Rear Its Head in New Hampshire This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 11, 2020 The first ballots were cast just after midnight Tuesday morning in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 14, 2020
National Politics Was Iowa Joe Biden's Waterloo? Many people have come to believe that the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary effectively pick Democratic presidential nominees. They do have some evidence to draw on: Iowa has picked the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 11, 2020
National Politics Little Solace for Democrats in New Polls Democrats have now officially kicked off voting in the race to face President Trump. Meanwhile, the president is emerging from a painful, divisive impeachment process. Yet as they spend the rest of… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 7, 2020
National Politics Trump Needs a Choice Election, Not a Referendum Given President Trump’s historically low job-approval ratings, he’d be hard-pressed to win an up-or-down referendum vote on his presidency in the Nov. 3 general election. Trump is the only president… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 4, 2020
Bloomberg National Politics Bloomberg's Moment May Arrive Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 31, 2020
National Politics The Picture to Remain Cloudy After Iowa and New Hampshire Gazing into a crystal ball for clues into the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination contest would likely reveal an exceedingly murky picture. To begin with, is it difficult to predict what will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 28, 2020
National Politics Impeachment Is Still an Exercise in Futility There are times when American politics resembles Lewis Carroll’s Alice in Wonderland. You see a political party’s politicians, activists, and base seemingly operating in a parallel reality. It’s no… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 21, 2020
National Politics On Diversity, Were DNC Rules to Blame? Sen. Cory Booker’s announcement on Monday that he was dropping out of the presidential race will give new impetus to the complaint that Tuesday’s Democratic presidential debate in Des Moines will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 17, 2020
National Politics How Will Independents Break on Iran? The standoff between the United States and Iran at one point looked quite possibly like the beginning of a war. Now both sides have wisely pulled back from the brink, at least for the time being.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 14, 2020
National Politics It's Wide Open Going into Iowa The upcoming round of polls will be closely scrutinized to determine how President Trump’s numbers are affected by his decision to take out Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, as well as to measure the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 10, 2020
Senate Overview Unpacking the Fundamentals of the 2020 Senate Races As we enter the 2020 election year, there are three questions looming over American politics: 1. Who will Democrats pick as their presidential nominee? 2. Will that person be an acceptable… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 7, 2020
Cook Logo PRESS Taylor to Succeed Duffy at The Cook Political Report Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 2, 2020
National Politics The Roots of Republican Rage Especially in the wake of the president’s impeachment, observers on both sides of the Great Trump Divide are asking themselves, “How did we get here?” or “How did it come to this?” It's an… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 27, 2019
National Politics How's Impeachment Play in the 'Burbs? Between the House voting on articles of impeachment on Wednesday, a deluge of new polls, and the widest open Democratic presidential nomination fight in memory, it is enough to make any political… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 20, 2019
National Politics Our Split-Screen Politics Watching politics these days is like watching a split-screen television. On one side of your screen is the impeachment process; on the other; a remarkably wide-open contest for the Democratic… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 17, 2019
National Politics What to Look for in the Next Polls Over the next week or 10 days, there should be a number of brand-name national polls released, a welcome development after the dearth of reliable polls since mid-November. Many networks and others… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 13, 2019
National Politics When Voters Act Like Pundits Pundits have long tried to put themselves in the shoes—actually the heads—of voters, attempting to understand what they’re thinking and why, as well as how they are likely to react to various… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 10, 2019
National Politics Don't Bet Against Bloomberg The more I think about Michael Bloomberg’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination, the more I wonder whether the political cognoscenti are underestimating his chances of winning. Do you… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 6, 2019
National Politics Our Usual Assumptions No Longer Apply That are we to make of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s presidential campaign announcement on Sunday? Will Democrats’ traditional rules of thumb and assumptions be cast aside as they… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 29, 2019
National Politics In Atlanta, All Thoughts on Iowa If you are Pete Buttigieg, you’d better get ready for your turn in the hot seat and expect incoming fire at Wednesday’s debate—probably sooner. The Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll of likely… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 22, 2019
National Politics Democrats Were Both Lucky and Good in the Off-Year Elections With Saturday’s gubernatorial runoff in Louisiana, the 2019 odd-year elections are now in the record books. Did Democrats capturing the governorship of Kentucky and reelecting a governor in Louisiana… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 22, 2019
National Politics An Inflection Point in the Democratic Race? In observing the Democratic nomination contest over the last couple weeks, one wonders whether we’ve hit an inflection point. Has the trajectory of the race sharply changed, or is it just a pause,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 15, 2019
National Politics Democrats Need to Mind the Gap Between Their Base and Swing Voters Sometimes things can seem contradictory but are not necessarily so. A variety of polls released this week on the 2020 presidential race painted very different pictures of President Trump’s odds for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 12, 2019
Bloomberg National Politics What Does Bloomberg's 2020 Entrance Mean? Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 8, 2019
National Politics Unpacking a Panoply of Polls It’s hard to determine where to start a political discussion these days. Impeachment? The Democratic presidential-nomination contest? President Trump’s prospects for reelection? The calendar can… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 8, 2019
National Politics Poking Holes in the Conventional Wisdom Quite often when a conventional wisdom takes hold, it is often an overly simplistic way of looking at things. But there is a value for people in and around politics to have a set of solid assumptions… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 5, 2019
National Politics How Democrats Come Back Again For those political aficionados capable of prying themselves away from cable news and the web, two quite interesting but very different books are just out. RIP GOP: How the New America is Dooming… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 1, 2019
National Politics In 2020, the Triumph of Experience Over Hope? The most popular parlor game in town these days is, “Who will win the Democratic presidential nomination next year?” I had the pleasure of playing this game at a recent lunch with four of the most… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 29, 2019
National Politics Little Reason to Think Republicans Will Abandon Trump Now Despite the saying—usually misattributed to Albert Einstein—that “insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results,” it is a bit rash to declare crazy those who… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 25, 2019
National Politics New Fronts in Old War There have been a host of big developments in the political world over the last 10 days—possible inflection points in the contest for the Democratic presidential nomination, the general election, or… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 22, 2019
National Politics President Trump as Preshrunk Jeans The more things change, the more things stay the same. With the Sept. 18 disclosure by The Washington Post that President Trump urged the president of the Ukraine to investigate Hunter Biden’s… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 18, 2019
National Politics Why Impeachment Remains a Dangerous Road for Dems Despite all of the hyperventilating in Democratic and liberal circles, it is not at all clear that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has had a “road to Damascus” conversion on the subject of impeachment.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 15, 2019
National Politics Our Stranger Than Fiction Politics On Monday morning, a screenshot came across my family’s text chain—one often reserved for photos of our 13-month-old granddaughter—of a @realDonaldTrump tweet. “As I have stated strongly before, and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 11, 2019
National Politics What's Clear—and What Isn't—From Here It isn’t unusual that heading into an election year, some things are crystal clear and others murky, even opaque. So, what is clear and what isn’t? It is clear that there will be an enormous voter… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 8, 2019
National Politics It's Anyone's Guess What Happens From Here As baseball great and philosopher Yogi Berra once opined, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Anyone who reads this column knows how the many twists and turns in American… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 4, 2019
National Politics Democrats Risk a Referendum on Impeachment, Rather Than on Trump Democrats now seem to be hurtling toward something that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and many other party leaders had desperately tried to avoid: impeaching President Trump. Pelosi has probably spent… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 1, 2019
National Politics Trump Stuck, Warren Surges There seemed to be just two topics of conversation in terms of presidential politics this past weekend. First was the impact of accusations that President Trump suggested or pressured Ukrainian… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 27, 2019
National Politics Will America Want to Have a Beer with Biden? The latest polling data to emerge validates the view that Joe Biden went into and came out of the Houston debates as the front-runner; ditto the view that President Trump faces the more difficult… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 24, 2019
National Politics Biden Wobbles, But Stays Aloft Speculating about how Joe Biden’s campaign would do, on June 7 this column compared the former vice president to a loaded 747: “You wonder whether it will even get off the ground, much less clear the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 20, 2019
National Politics All Eyes Are Shifting to the Senate This column argued six months ago that to the extent the focus of the political world wasn’t trained on the presidential election, it was on whether Democrats would retain their newly won House… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 17, 2019
National Politics Warren Polishes Sanders Playbook Trips to Iowa and New Hampshire over the last month provided me plenty of insights into the 2020 Democratic field, but not too many answers. Similarly, Thursday’s ABC News/Univision debate in Houston… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 13, 2019
National Politics Just Who Are These Undecided Voters, Anyway? Presidential general elections are generally determined by two factors: the size and relative enthusiasm of each major party’s base, and which way the swing voters in the middle go. Every four years… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 10, 2019
National Politics Recent White House Turmoil Only Underscores the Fundamentals of the 2020 Race As we approach Labor Day weekend, it seems that a lot has happened over the last week. But despite the new economic worries, the White House's shifting positions on guns, and a feud with Denmark, it… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 27, 2019
trump National Politics These Are the Numbers That Should Worry Trump the Most Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 23, 2019
National Politics If the Economy Dips, Will Trump's Fortunes Follow? One of the hottest political topics this week is what effect Wednesday’s stock-market plunge and the possibility of a significant economic downturn will have on the upcoming presidential election.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 20, 2019
National Politics Will a Third-Lane Candidate Emerge? After driving more than 500 miles around Iowa over three days this past weekend and listening to almost 20 candidates, the two strongest impressions I received were just how fragile Joe Biden’s front… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 16, 2019
National Politics It May Come Down to Biden vs. Warren If we learned anything from 2016, it was to be careful with predictions. Like life in general, politics can take unexpected turns. But stopping short of predictions, we can look at the horizon and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 13, 2019
National Politics GOP Could Be Bracing for an Aftershock From time to time I think about the first time I tried the Southern delicacy that is turducken—a deboned chicken stuffed inside a deboned duck, all inside a deboned turkey. I didn’t like it. As… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 9, 2019
National Politics Biden Continues to Thread the Needle Watching the pair of Democratic presidential debates in Detroit this week left me feeling that former Vice President Joe Biden was both past his prime and good enough to be considered the favorite to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 6, 2019
National Politics The Debates Are More Important Than You Think It is not exactly an earth-shattering revelation that the Democratic presidential debates on CNN this Tuesday and Wednesday nights are important. But they might be even more important than many… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 2, 2019
National Politics Dems' Best Shot at Trump Is at the Ballot Box The impeachment process in the House is the legislative branch’s equivalent of a criminal indictment. A Senate conviction is akin to a judicial finding of guilt. So, in the wake of former Special… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 30, 2019
National Politics The Odds of a 2016 Redux The anxiety levels of more than a few Democrats increased exponentially last Friday with the almost simultaneous publication of two articles by really bright, independent political analysts who… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 26, 2019
National Politics Democrats Now Face a Stress Test of Their Own Without getting too carried away, it can be said that America, its institutions, its democratic process, and indeed its people are undergoing a series of stress tests, both individually and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 23, 2019
National Politics Trump's Great Reelection Expectations A good friend of mine who is an American foreign policy expert recently returned from a trip to Asia, where he met with a wide variety of current and former senior government officials from across… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 19, 2019
National Politics Raging Partisanship in the Age of Trump The phrase “elections have consequences” is both a cliché and a truism. Some used to say, “It doesn’t really matter who wins” a particular election, but it has been a while since those words have… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 16, 2019
National Politics Approval Numbers Now Untethered From Economy President Trump has to be pleased with his approval ratings in the just-released ABC News/Washington Post poll, conducted June 28 to July 1. His 44 percent rating is up 5 points from their last… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 12, 2019
National Politics A Referendum on Trump, or a Referendum on Socialism In all of the talk this past weekend about the 2020 presidential race, the line that resonated with me was James Carville’s quote in the Sunday New York Times. “This is an election that Trump can’t… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 5, 2019
National Politics The Rorschach Tests of Early Debates Primary-election debates are like Rorschach tests. People can watch and hear the same things, and reach very different conclusions. They can see different “winners” too. As of deadline for this… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 2, 2019
National Politics Context Is Critical When Parsing Biden's Words Few ardent supporters of former Vice President Joe Biden would argue with the suggestion that he chose his words poorly when discussing his ability to work with Sen. James Eastland of Mississippi and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 28, 2019
National Politics Trump's Pivot on Immigration Won't Help Him Win the Middle Unless the saber rattling between President Trump and Iran gets much louder in the coming days, the political talk next week will be about the first pair of Democratic presidential debates Wednesday… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 25, 2019
National Politics The Top Tier Versus Trump Two weeks ago, this column took a stab at winnowing the 23-candidate Democratic field of presidential candidates down to a plausible Elite Eight and Final Four. The suggested Elite Eight was made up… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 21, 2019
cecdad My Family's Own D-Day Story Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 18, 2019
National Politics Quantifying the "Trump Penalty" With only a few exceptions, polling has delivered bad news for President Trump of late. His job-approval rating is 44 percent in RealClearPolitics.com’s average of major national polls. That includes… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 14, 2019
National Politics Who Will Make the "Final Four" of the Democratic Field? It’s both audacious and a fool’s errand for anyone today to predict who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination. After all, the final primaries will be a year from today. But we can… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 11, 2019
National Politics Why House Dems Shouldn't Impeach the President It is difficult for me to understand the argument made by many Democrats and liberals for moving forward to impeach President Trump. Whether he warrants it or not, it is the definition of futility,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 7, 2019
National Politics When and How the Democratic Field Will Shrink The incredibly useful website Ballotpedia reports that as of May 27, 738 candidates had filed to run for president in 2020—252 as Democrats, 94 Republicans, and 29 for the Libertarian nomination. Who… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 4, 2019
National Politics Trump Has Ceded the Middle. Can Democrats Grab It? It’s hardly novel to see the electorate as split into three groups: one side, the other side, and those in the middle. This presidential election can certainly be seen in this way, though the groups… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 28, 2019
National Politics How Abortion Could Threaten GOP Control of the Senate Sometimes party control of a legislative chamber shouldn’t logically be in danger given the political fundamentals. But circumstances can and do change. For the better part of this decade, for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 24, 2019
National Politics Trump's Rural Stress Test There are many fascinating and paradoxical aspects to President Trump’s style and appeal. For example, someone whose life has hardly reflected that of a choirboy and who uses language not often… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 21, 2019
National Politics It Won't Take Long for the Deep Dem Field to Start Thinning If Montana Gov. Steve Bullock and New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio get into the race for president, Democrats will be one candidate short of an even two dozen. It’s a good bet that this herd will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 17, 2019
National Politics Polling Responses Provide Vivid Illustration of Divergent Opinions on Trump In this era of political tribalism, with so many people living in partisan and ideological silos—living, working, and socializing with like-minded people—it tends to not just reinforce thinking, but… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 14, 2019
National Politics Democrats' Huge Field Reflects the High Perceived Value of the Nomination With both former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado now officially in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and Montana Gov. Steve Bullock reportedly… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 7, 2019
National Politics As Lugar Learned, Experience Is No Silver Bullet in Politics As a Capitol Hill intern in the mid-'70s, I heard a story about a young, eager-beaver freshman congressman who spent a considerable amount of time in the well of the House, badgering the floor… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 3, 2019
House Overview What to Watch for in the Race for the House Majority Last year’s midterm elections may have been the first time in modern history that the elections for the House drew more attention, both before and after the balloting, than those for the Senate. In… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 30, 2019
National Politics The Political Risk of Impeachment Democrats face a choice. We’ve heard many say President Trump is unqualified and unworthy of being president; that he has behaved in ways beneath his position and that he has betrayed the office—and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 26, 2019
National Politics Let's Take a Breath on the Mueller Report's Political Ramifications It’s now time to practice deep breathing exercises. In the 818 days since President Trump took the oath of office, we have heard over-caffeinated pundits and others say, “today is a decisive day for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 23, 2019
National Politics The Power of "Negative Partisanship" It’s no secret that the level of political acrimony in the 1970s and 1980s now pales in comparison to the current climate of partisanship. Indeed, when the Justice Department on Thursday releases… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 19, 2019
bern National Politics The Declining Importance of Big Donors Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 16, 2019
National Politics The GOP's Senate Firewall A palpable nervousness is taking hold among Republicans as they look ahead to the 2020 elections, and the word “firewall” is coming up frequently in the same sentence as “Senate.” Republicans… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 12, 2019
National Politics The Minds of Voters in the Middle The more things happen, the more convincing is the view that 35 percent of the electorate is made up of President Trump’s hard base, 45 percent is the equally adamant opposition, and the remaining 20… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 9, 2019
trump National Politics Trump Keeps Making the Wrong Choices Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 5, 2019
National Politics A Post-Mueller Bump for Trump Won't Last Robert Mueller’s work has largely concluded and President Trump’s legal exposure has been diminished—at least on the charge that he and his campaign coordinated with Russian intelligence. So what… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 2, 2019
National Politics Mueller Report a 2020 Turning Point Sunday afternoon’s release of Attorney General William Barr’s summary of Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report marks a critical point in the 2020 presidential campaign. Democrats and other critics… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 29, 2019
National Politics The Calm Before the 2020 Storm As weird and wild as the last four and a half months have been, it still feels like the lull before the storm. Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s multilayered probe seems to be near a crescendo,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 26, 2019
National Politics The Dynamics to Watch in 2020 Whenever I’m asked, “Who do you pay particular attention to on politics and political trends?” one invariable name I offer is that of my former National Journal colleague, Ron Brownstein, now a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 22, 2019
National Politics A Week of Political Whiplash Between former Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s Thursday announcement for the presidency and former Vice President Joe Biden looking all but certain to run, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi coming out against… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 19, 2019
National Politics Filling Out the 2020 Dem Bracket We are now nearing the end of the Democratic presidential nomination sign-up period. Using The New York Times’ handy “Who’s Running for President in 2020?” interactive as a yardstick, we now have 14… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 15, 2019
National Politics How Power in the House Has Changed Back in the old days, it seemed that at least in the House of Representatives, power was a zero-sum game. If a party was in the majority with a dozen or more seats to spare for occasional defections… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 12, 2019
National Politics The 2020 Path Democrats Shouldn't Take At this point in the 2020 presidential campaign, there are several things we can be reasonably sure about and some that we don’t know at all. We can be fairly confident that President Trump is going… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 8, 2019
National Politics Why Cohen Won't Move the Needle Don’t hold your breath in anticipation of big changes up or down in President Trump’s ratings in the polls in the aftermath of Michael Cohen’s testimony before Congress this week. Any movement is… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 5, 2019
National Politics Why the Senate Is the Big 2020 Story Just about everyone interested in American politics these days is focused on what Special Counsel Robert Mueller is expected to do in the coming weeks, along with the unfolding presidential contest… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 1, 2019
National Politics How Mueller Could Add to Trump's Electoral Woes With “the” or at least “a” report from Special Counsel Robert Mueller reportedly expected next week, some are predicting bombshell revelations that could damage President Trump greatly, while others… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 26, 2019
National Politics Are Democrats Dominated by the Left? Don't Be So Sure. From much of the media coverage these days, you would think that the undisputed leaders of the Democratic Party are freshman Rep. Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez and—of course—Sens. Elizabeth Warren and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 19, 2019
john dingell National Politics Remembering a Legend Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 15, 2019
National Politics Virginia, 2020, and Identity Politics Over the last few days the bullets of identity politics have been ricocheting through the state Capitol in Richmond, the entire Commonwealth of Virginia, and to a certain extent, the whole Democratic… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 12, 2019
National Politics The Tricky Business of Judging Politicians My hesitation to write about Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam is based on a feeling that his resignation might come at any moment, before this column sees the light of day. While I don’t think I have ever… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 8, 2019
National Politics How Economic Forecasts Will Affect 2020 It seems that every week a new candidate or two is either getting into the Democratic presidential nomination contest, as Sen. Kamala Harris did on Sunday, or getting out, as Los Angeles Mayor Eric… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 5, 2019
There Are Not Enough Electoral Votes for Howard Schultz National Politics There Are Not Enough Electoral Votes for Howard Schultz Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 1, 2019
National Politics The GOP's Balancing Act Now that the federal government has reopened, at least for another three weeks, the question on a lot of minds is, “What now?” As this column noted last week in suggesting that the end was near,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 1, 2019
National Politics Why Trump Needs to End the Shutdown This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on January 26, 2019 My hunch is that this government shutdown will be over inside of a week or 10 days, tops. The truth is that nobody ever… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 29, 2019
National Politics Economic Downturn Will Be Hurdle for Trump There is no disputing that the state of the economy is a major factor in the reelection equation for any president. That is not to say a good economy guarantees a president a second term or a bad… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 22, 2019
National Politics Why a Primary Challenge to Trump Wouldn't Work Republicans are in a jam. President Trump’s poll numbers are terrible and seem to be getting worse. The RealClearPolitics average of polls shows a presidential-approval rating of 41 percent, the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 18, 2019
National Politics It Will Only Get Worse for the GOP Getting up Thursday morning on the 20th day of the partial federal government shutdown, one senses that President Trump and his party are not in a good place. For the record, the longest government… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 15, 2019
National Politics Who Can Win the Narrow Middle in 2020? It is striking how many of President Trump supporters I meet who seem largely unconcerned about his chances of reelection. He won a race in 2016 that he wasn’t expected to win, so why not in 2020?… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 11, 2019
National Politics Sizing Up the 2020 House and Senate Landscapes The political world will be a three-ring circus over the next two years, and while the contest for the presidency will obviously dominate, there will be plenty to watch in the House and Senate rings… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 8, 2019
National Politics Setting the Odds in an Odd Cycle The University of Virginia’s inimitable and highly regarded political scientist Larry Sabato is fond of saying, “He who lives by the crystal ball ends up eating ground glass!" As we prepare to turn… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 26, 2018
National Politics How Republicans Misplayed Their Primaries Quick, name the four House incumbents who lost their reelection primaries earlier this year, two from each party, and think about what happened to their seats in the general election. The two… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 18, 2018
National Politics Sizing Up Trump's Base Just what are President Trump’s reelection prospects? That’s the question for which everyone has a theory but no one has a definitive answer. There are so many imponderables, including the state of… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 14, 2018
National Politics As Dark Clouds Gather, Leaders Should Learn From the Past Those of us who think and care about politics will long remember where we were when we watched or, in my case, listened to Wednesday morning's deeply moving National Cathedral memorial service for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 11, 2018
National Politics What 2018 Tells Us About 2020 Many people these days have never driven a car with a manual transmission, but: We are now at a point when the clutch is in yet we haven’t fully shifted into gear or reverse. We aren’t quite finished… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 7, 2018
National Politics Get Ready for a Presidential Race Unlike Any Other The last 2018 House race is yet to be officially called, but the fight for the 2020 Democratic presidential race has already started. Thousands of barrels of ink, literal or digital, will be expended… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 4, 2018
National Politics Voters Want Prudence, Not Politics The late House Speaker Sam Rayburn used to say that “there is no education in the second kick of a mule.” Reading soon-to-be-former House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte’s announcement… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 30, 2018
National Politics Why Democrats Should Keep Pelosi House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi owes Rep.-elect Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a big favor. A good case can be made that Ocasio-Cortez, the 29-year old Democratic Socialist who upset House Democratic… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 23, 2018
National Politics Republicans Must Do Some Soul-Searching Over the next few months, as election results are finalized, exit polling massaged, and post-election polling conducted and examined, we will be spending a lot of time slicing and dicing the data.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 20, 2018
National Politics How Our Predictions Held Up After the surprises of Election Night 2016, it was nice to have a first Tuesday after the first Monday in November in which things mostly went as expected, and for me personally, as predicted. In… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 16, 2018
National Politics An Increasingly Divided Nation Yields Divided Results This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 8, 2018 Coming on the heels of the most surprising presidential election outcome in our lifetimes, this 2018 midterm election… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 12, 2018
National Politics What Both Sides Could Learn From Tuesday This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 6, 2018 A friend said over the weekend, “The bird is in the oven. On Tuesday we will see what emerges—a goose or a buzzard.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 9, 2018
National Politics A Late Nudge Toward Democrats? This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 2, 2018 Heading into the final weekend before the midterms, you have to wonder whether in the last week fate has thrown another… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 5, 2018
National Politics Why We're Headed for Huge Turnout A week before the midterm elections, both parties are filled with anxiety. Like football wide receivers who have been blind-sided one time too many, many Democrats are hearing real or imaginary… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 2, 2018
National Politics Why Dems Are in the Driver's Seat for House Control With 12 days to go before the midterm elections, there are plenty of reasons to believe that we know the general directions that the House, Senate, gubernatorial, and state legislative elections will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 30, 2018
National Politics Trump's Numbers Improve, But GOP Problems Remain Knowing that midterm elections are referenda on the incumbent president, Republicans have prayed since the early stages of this election cycle that President Trump’s job-approval ratings would rise.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 26, 2018
National Politics The Contours of the Next Congress With three weeks to go before the midterm elections, minds are already starting to turn toward what the next two years will be like. So what is the most plausible situation in January, when the 116th… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 23, 2018
National Politics A Shift in GOP Fortunes The most dramatic change over the last six weeks in the midterm election picture is clearly in the Senate, but the House situation has subtly changed as well. Not long ago, the most likely outcome… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 19, 2018
National Politics A Tale of Two Increasingly Divergent Elections It turns out that the bitter fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination was what I call a color-enhancement event—it made the reds redder and the blues bluer. The old cliché about… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 16, 2018
National Politics The Kavanaugh Aftermath There was never any danger of me becoming a physics major but I remember, from my one class on the subject, Sir Isaac Newton’s third law of motion: For every action, there is an equal and opposite… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 12, 2018
National Politics The Real Blue Wave Could Come in the States There are a lot of great political stories out there right now, so it’s easy to miss that the biggest one might be happening below the federal level. Nationally, what appears to be the blue… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 9, 2018
National Politics How Kavanaugh Could Boost Turnout It’s hard to have a conversation about politics in recent weeks without it quickly turning to President Trump’s nomination of federal Appeals Court Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the U.S.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 5, 2018
National Politics It's Trump, Not Kavanaugh, Who Will Matter in November When I first got involved in politics in the 1970s, we had 24-hour news cycles. Today they’re more like 24 minutes, if that. Cable television and news alerts now on our phones have transformed what… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 2, 2018
National Politics The Kavanaugh Fight's Midterm Stakes The eyes and ears of the political world will be on the Senate Judiciary Committee’s Supreme Court confirmation hearings this week: Judge Brett Kavanaugh against Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, who has… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 28, 2018
National Politics Troubling Turnout Signs for the GOP Yes, midterm elections are almost always referenda on the incumbent president, but the real driving force is turnout. With about a third fewer people casting ballots in midterm elections compared… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 25, 2018
National Politics Kavanaugh Drama Adds Fresh Uncertainty to Midterms This election is taking on many of the aspects of a three-ring circus. Not only are wild and unexpected things happening, but if you focus too much on what is going on in any one ring, you miss what… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 21, 2018
Senate Overview Why the Senate Landscape Hasn't Really Changed Suddenly the political world seems to realize that the Senate is in play, concluding that the expected Democratic wave, which has made a turnover in the House very likely, is now starting to swamp… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 18, 2018
National Politics The Midterm Messages That Matter Ask any political analyst what midterm elections are about and they will respond, “midterms are almost always referenda on the incumbent president,” and the statistics bear them out. Since the end of… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 14, 2018
National Politics A Trying Week for Washington Well, too bad there is nothing to write about this week! Where do we start—perhaps with the apoplectic Democrats during the Senate Judiciary Committee’s confirmation hearings for Brett Kavanaugh’s… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 11, 2018
National Politics A Grim Fall Awaits GOP For over six months this column has suggested that this election amounts to a Democratic tidal wave crashing against a Republican seawall—the question is which will be stronger. At Labor Day, the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 7, 2018
National Politics Dark Days Ahead for Trump and the GOP This week’s developments—the guilty verdict of Paul Manafort, President Trump’s former campaign head found guilty on tax and bank-fraud charges, and the guilty plea by Michael Cohen, Trump’s longtime… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 28, 2018
National Politics Forecast Calls for Legislative Paralysis in the Next Congress So who will be in charge in Washington next year? Right now, The Cook Political Report is forecasting that the most likely midterm-election outcome in the House is Democrats picking up between 20 and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 24, 2018
National Politics The Down Side of Winning the White House It’s ironic how much members of a party desperately want to retake the White House, then when they do, they spend the next four or eight years paying for that success. After eight years of President… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 21, 2018
Trump2020 National Politics Handicapping Trump's Chances in 2020 Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 17, 2018
National Politics Ahead of the Midterms, Some Free Advice for Republicans and Democrats For all of the hyperventilating Tuesday night and Wednesday, we really didn’t learn much from this week’s special elections that we didn’t already know. It had been obvious for some time that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 14, 2018
National Politics Why the Ohio Special Election Won't Tell Us Much About November Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is likely to be close, but several things are entirely predictable. There will be plenty of hyperventilating pundits on Tuesday night… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 10, 2018
National Politics What the 2016 Elections Taught Us About Uncertainty I am frequently asked what the “surprise elections” will be this fall. After all, there are always a few races whose outcome—or near outcome, the results much closer than expected—seem to come out of… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 7, 2018
National Politics McCain Looks Back on a Unique Life The House has gone home and the Senate will by the end of the week, so it’s a good time to head to the beach, the mountains, or a park bench for a good read. In recent months I’ve read and thoroughly… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 3, 2018
National Politics The Three Fronts of the 2018 Election Three themes seem to be developing in this 2018 midterm election. First, the challenge for Republicans of holding onto their House majority is looking increasingly difficult. Second, the fight over… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 31, 2018
National Politics Pro- and Anti-Trump Views Harden After President Trump’s disastrous performances in Helsinki and Brussels and instigation of a trade war, many predicted that last week would represent a turning point in his presidency, that even… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 27, 2018
National Politics Why Trump Won't Take a Political Hit From Summit Follies Alot of people are expecting enormous fallout from President Trump’s meetings with NATO leaders in Brussels and summit in Helsinki with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Many clearly believe that all… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 24, 2018
National Politics Will Senate GOP Feel the Heat in 2020? Given that control of the House is teetering and the battle over the 51-49 Senate is just short of hand-to-hand-combat, it may seem odd to be thinking about the 2020 Senate elections. But there is… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 20, 2018
National Politics Why Kavanaugh Looks Like a Done Deal The more things change, the more they stay the same. While retiring Justice Anthony Kennedy had long been considered the swing vote in many high-profile cases on a Supreme Court routinely divided… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 17, 2018
National Politics Why House Control Is Getting the Headlines This year is one of the few in memory when the fight for control of the House is getting more attention than the one for the Senate, normally the more glamorous of the two. The Senate could flip… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 13, 2018
National Politics Democrats Risk Overreach on Immigration It was to my dismay that I discovered from “The Quote Investigator” that Abraham Lincoln may not have coined the phrase “defeat from the jaws of victory.” The (untrue) story goes that Lincoln,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 10, 2018
National Politics An Electoral Fight Between Two Very Different Americas The fight for control of Congress is being fought in two very different Americas. Of the 18 competitive and potentially competitive Senate races, those categorized in The Cook Political Report as… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 6, 2018
National Politics What Kennedy’s Retirement Means for the Midterms What are the electoral implications of Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement that he will retire from the Supreme Court? With about a third fewer people voting in midterm than in presidential… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 3, 2018
National Politics Trump’s Risky Bet on His Base President Trump has given a new twist to German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s famous line, “That which does not kill us makes us stronger.” In the case of the president, that which hurts him… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 29, 2018
National Politics What’s Fueling Trump’s Rise in the Polls The Trump presidency has a plethora of unique attributes, but one of the most surprising to me is the lack of volatility of his poll numbers. Using the Gallup Organization’s weekly polling as a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 22, 2018
National Politics Trump Policies Abroad Will Hurt at Home It’s hard these days to meet with governmental and business leaders from around the world and not be struck by their growing feelings of anxiety, impatience, and resentment toward the United States… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 19, 2018
National Politics Big Stakes and Small Margins in Battle for the Senate We will find out for sure in a little less than five months, but at this point, it looks more likely than not that Republicans will lose control of the House while retaining their Senate majority.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 15, 2018
National Politics Numbers Show House GOP Still in Deep Trouble The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday morning had both good and bad news for President Trump and his party. The good news was that optimism about the direction of the country and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 12, 2018
National Politics America’s Seismic Political Shifts The cover of the April 21 issue of The Economist asked, “What’s become of the Republican Party?” Inside, the article was headlined, “How the elephant got its Trump,” beginning with a quote from a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 8, 2018
National Politics Presidential Disapproval Marks Portend Bad Autumn for Congressional GOP For better or worse, midterm elections are almost invariably referenda on the incumbent president. In four of the past eight midterm elections, the sitting president’s final preelection Gallup… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 5, 2018
National Politics Tracking Trump’s Unusual Poll Patterns It should not be a surprise that this most unconventional of presidents might have a nontraditional pattern of job-approval ratings over his first 16 months in office. With the summit meeting… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 29, 2018
National Politics Why November’s Downballot Races Matter As Rhodes Cook, the longtime political analyst, recently wrote in his newsletter, “The breadth of Republican dominance these days is not just impressive, it’s staggering. They control the White House… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 25, 2018
National Politics Why President Trump’s Numbers Barely Move It is amazing to note how stable President Trump’s poll numbers are, regardless of positive or negative developments. Yes, his approval ratings are better today than they were six months ago or even… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 22, 2018
National Politics Democrats’ Midterm Margin for Error Is Shrinking It’s still true that Democrats are far more likely than not to capture a majority in the House of Representatives for the first time since 2010, but their margin for error may be less than it was six… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 18, 2018
National Politics The Numbers Say Dems Still Have an Edge—But Not a Huge One In both life and politics, things aren’t always quite as straightforward and tidy as we would like. There can be a general agreement on the direction something is headed, but not necessarily on the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 15, 2018
National Politics Glimmers of Hope for the GOP With the midterm elections less than six months away, the question seems to be whether we are at a new transition point. Last fall, when Election Day was a year out, President Trump’s job-approval-… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 11, 2018
National Politics What’s at Stake in the Midterms This 2018 election is a relative rarity. Sure, congressional elections come every two years, but it is really unusual for the majorities in the House and Senate to actually be teetering on the edge… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 8, 2018
National Politics Before They Make Gains, Dems Need to Look in the Mirror With the chances of Democrats capturing control of the House edging from a possibility to a probability, and a Democratic majority in the Senate now quite plausible—though still under 50-50—it’s a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 4, 2018
National Politics GOP’s Midterm Mission: Triage the Seats That Can Be Saved The fight over the House majority is hardly a done deal, but it’s safe to say that GOP control is in increasing jeopardy and worries among Republicans for their Senate majority are growing.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 1, 2018
National Politics Donald Trump and the Cycles of the Presidency Given how extraordinary Donald Trump’s nomination and election were, it’s helpful to benchmark how his presidency is going compared to the norm. Republicans typically nominate an establishment… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 27, 2018
National Politics Measuring the Midterm Intensity Gap There is a lot of talk about intensity of voters these days, and for good reason. It was the greater intensity of support among Donald Trump backers and the relative ambivalence of many who intended… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 24, 2018
National Politics Firing Rosenstein, Mueller Might Not Solve Trump’s Legal Problems Last week’s raids by the FBI on the home, hotel room, and office of President Trump’s personal lawyer and close adviser Michael Cohen underscore that the investigation by Special Counsel Robert… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 20, 2018
National Politics #MeToo, Social Media, and Keeping an Eye on the Big Picture Prior to House Speaker Paul Ryan’s Wednesday announcement that he was retiring from Congress, it was my intention to write this column about a really interesting and thought-provoking PowerPoint… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 17, 2018
Guns, Impeachment, and SCOTUS National Politics Three Turnout Wild Cards: Guns, Impeachment, and SCOTUS Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 13, 2018
National Politics Voters’ Motives Shift, and Allegiances Harden A New York Times piece in the “Review” section this past Sunday really got my attention. Amy Sullivan, a Chicago-based journalist, wrote, “Now that Stormy Daniels has confirmed on national television… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 10, 2018
Senate Overview How to Handicap the Race for the Senate The toughest question for me this election cycle is which party, if either, will gain Senate seats. With the obvious caveat that things can change between now and Nov. 6, it’s reasonably clear that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 6, 2018
Dem Primary National Politics Sorting Through the 2020 Democratic Primary Already (Quietly) Underway Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 3, 2018
The Demographic Trends That Should Worry Republicans National Charts The Demographic Trends That Should Worry Republicans Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 30, 2018
National Politics The GOP’s Dwindling Base With porn actresses, former Playboy playmates, and Cambridge Analytica in the news recently, the bimbo eruptions and failed Arkansas land deal of the 1992 campaign and the Clinton presidency seem… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 27, 2018
National Politics A Creeping Sense of Doom for Republicans In the wake of the GOP’s House special-election loss in Pennsylvania and amid President Trump’s increasingly erratic behavior, it’s really hard to come up with good news for Republicans. In my… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 23, 2018
Trump Ryan National Politics Evidence Grows that Trump Is Dragging the GOP Down Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 20, 2018
National Politics What’s at Stake in State Legislative Races It’s hard to overstate the importance of the American presidential elections, but very easy to underappreciate the significance of midterm elections, particularly this year’s. While every midterm… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 16, 2018
National Politics Troubling Signs for the GOP on the Electoral Horizon It’s hard to remember a week when there were so many interesting or important political developments. Some are getting less attention than warranted, others perhaps too much. In no particular order… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 13, 2018
National Politics Obamacare Polls Offer Lessons In terms of ideology, it’s fascinating how sorted out the two political parties have become. The days of conservative-leaning Democrats having a strong and moderating voice in their party, just as… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 9, 2018
Elizabeth Warren National Politics Dems Should Worry About Long-Term Direction, Not 2018 Message Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 6, 2018
National Charts Trump, GOP Fall Back to Earth This is turning out to be a fascinating midterm election, pitting the Democratic wave against the Republican seawall. Historic midterm voting patterns combined with national, state, and district-… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 2, 2018
National Politics Why Washington Isn’t Working This is hardly a new or unique observation, but it is increasingly apparent that things in our Capitol and our political process simply are not working. I’m not talking about any specific issue,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 27, 2018
National Politics Despite Bright Spots for Trump, Disapproval Remains Intense With so many conservatives and Republicans down on mainstream-media organizations and the polls that they sponsor, the latest Fox News survey gives us an opportunity to drill down on data that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 21, 2018
National Politics Is Trump’s Uptick a Blip or a Trend? Those of us who obsess about politics and midterm elections are laser-focused on two variables right now—the “stickability” of President Trump’s uptick in approval ratings since the beginning of the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 16, 2018
National Politics Can the Economy Stop a Democratic Wave? When talking about an upcoming election, a friend often asks, “Charlie, if you are wrong, how are you wrong?” I’ve always found that to be a good intellectual exercise for anyone in the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 13, 2018
National Politics The GOP’s Misguided Midterm Optimism All of our national elections are important, but there is always a special significance to the last midterm elections before the congressional and state-legislative redistricting processes take place… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 9, 2018
House Overview Mapping the Fight for the House While most in the political world accept the premise that the Republican majority in the House is in real danger, not everyone understands exactly where the GOP is in peril. Even a cursory glance at… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 6, 2018
National Politics The "Trap" of a U.S.-China War It isn’t often that a book comes along that should be mandatory reading for every member of Congress, Cabinet member and, for that matter, any senior governmental official with a connection to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 2, 2018
Bill Nelson Heitkamp Senate Overview The Senate Battlegrounds to Watch Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 30, 2018
National Politics The Numbers to Watch Ahead of November There seems little point in spending a lot of time trying to assess the political implications of what turned out to be a relatively brief government shutdown. The initial reading of the deal is that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 26, 2018
National Politics GOP Needs to Keep Focus on Tax Cuts and the Economy, Not a Shutdown Democrats and Republicans are playing a game of legislative chicken over government funding, the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program, and the border wall as well as the Children’s Health… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 23, 2018
National Politics The Wave vs. the Map The rash of recent retirements by House Republicans along with the decisions by a number of top-tier Republicans being courted to run for the Senate combine to reinforce the view that many of us have… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 16, 2018
National Politics Democrats Shouldn’t Overplay Their Hands The Republican establishment is positively giddy over the apparent comeuppance of Steve Bannon in the wake of his intemperate quotes in Michael Wolff’s new book, Fire and Fury. Many in the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 12, 2018
National Politics A White House That Can’t Shoot Straight The NBC News Political Unit’s morning newsletter First Read on Thursday nailed it, noting, “The last two days are a reminder that 2018 will be all about Trump: For those who thought the GOP’s tax law… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 8, 2018
Trump and Republicans Crater National Politics Trump and Republicans Crater in Gold-Standard Poll Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 26, 2017
Only the Economy Could Change the Political Atmosphere National Politics Only the Economy Could Change the Political Atmosphere Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 22, 2017
National Politics It’s a New Day for Democrats Other than the small matter of putting into play the Republican Senate majority for the first time this year, what did Democrat Doug Jones’s victory in Alabama mean for next year’s midterm elections… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 19, 2017
National Politics The Political Portents of December Not since the U.S. Supreme Court decision in Bush v. Gore—Tuesday marks the 17th anniversary of its announcement—have we had a December as politically momentous as the one shaping up this year. Which… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 15, 2017
National Politics The Perceptive Books of TV Journalist Chris Matthews Like a lot of practitioners of opinion journalism, Chris Matthews, host of MSNBC’s weeknight show Hardball, has his share of both fans and detractors. His fans and regular MSNBC viewers, typically… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 12, 2017
National Politics Why the Tax Bill Could Be Bad Politics With Senate passage of the tax-cut bill, it looks very likely that President Trump and Republicans will finally get one of their top priorities enacted into law. The big question is whether the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 8, 2017
National Politics The Voices of Trump Supporters As much as I like to pore over polling data, focus groups offer color and texture that are missing from numbers on a page. Veteran pollster Peter Hart is a master at conducting focus groups. In Hart’… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 5, 2017
National Politics GOP Tax Cuts Are Driven by Politics, Not Economics Congressional Republicans have convinced themselves that they need to pass a tax bill ASAP. Having failed to repeal and replace Obamacare and made little if any progress on either a border wall or a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 1, 2017
National Politics The GOP Fails To Make the Case for Its Own Success One of the perks of being a political columnist is that from time to time you can step into the shoes of a campaign strategist and offer some unsolicited advice. While it is doubtful that anyone has… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 27, 2017
Democratic Wave CEC National Politics Democratic Wave Begins Forming Off Political Coast Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 21, 2017
Alabama Senate Roy Moore’s Political Morality Test It’s anyone’s guess what will happen in the Dec. 12 special Senate election in Alabama between former state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, the Republican, and former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones, the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 17, 2017
Alabama Senate Just When You Think It’s Bad, Roy Moore Makes It Worse It’s 3 o’clock on Thursday afternoon. Too bad there’s nothing for me to write about. Just as we were in the final stages of sifting through the tea leaves from Tuesday’s surprising off-year elections… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 14, 2017
National Politics Tuesday’s Tea Leaves for 2018 Note: This article was published prior to Tuesday's elections at nationaljournal.com By Wednesday morning—after returns are in from New Jersey, Virginia, and a few special state legislative… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 10, 2017
National Politics How the 2016 Election Changed the Political Calculus Listening to the House and Senate campaign committee chairs, both Democratic and Republican, at a Wall Street Journal-sponsored panel on Thursday morning, it hit me how different the conversation is… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 7, 2017
National Politics Silver Lining in the GOP Gloom The news seems unrelentingly bad for Republicans these days. President Trump’s former campaign chairman is indicted on money laundering, among other charges, while a Trump campaign foreign policy… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 3, 2017
National Politics Will Trump Lead Republicans Into Little Big Horn? Having lived, gone to college, and worked in Washington for 45 years, I thought I had seen pretty much everything. That is until 2015, and Donald Trump’s appearance on the national political stage.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 31, 2017
Bannon’s Circular Firing Squad National Politics Bannon’s Circular Firing Squad Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 27, 2017
Bredesen Tennessee Senate A Democratic Senate Majority Hinges on Tennessee Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 24, 2017
National Politics Business Endures a Love-Hate Relationship With Trump Talking with the head lobbyist of a large corporation the other day, it occurred to me how ambivalent big business feels toward President Trump and his administration. For many in the corporate… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 20, 2017
National Politics Working, Voting, and Bowling Alone It’s hard not to read the morning newspapers or watch the evening news and not see evidence that the fabric of our nation is coming unraveled. The seventh from the last word in our Pledge of… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 17, 2017
National Politics Trump’s Feud With Corker Takes Him To a Darker Place Republicans woke up Columbus Day morning to the sights and sounds of the wheels coming off their midterm-election bus and their legislative jalopy. First came a widely publicized war of words between… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 13, 2017
National Politics The Second Gilded Age and Its Discontents Washington is a town full of smart people, and one of the smartest is Bruce Mehlman of the bipartisan lobbying firm of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas. It isn’t the bachelor’s degree from… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 9, 2017
National Politics The Fantasyland of Tax Reform The baffling assumption in Washington and in the markets these days is the persistent optimism that major tax reform or a big tax cut will be enacted this year or next. Why should anyone think this… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 6, 2017
CECAlabamaSenate Alabama Senate Alabama Race Claims Casualties in GOP Civil War Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 3, 2017
National Politics Loose Lips May Sink Trump’s Ship Analysts are sifting through a mountain of just-released national polling from ABC News/Washington Post, CNN, and NBC News/Wall Street Journal, along with the continuous flow from the Gallup… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 29, 2017
National Politics An Accidental President Charts a Purposeful Course It’s a popular refrain that President Trump and his administration are ineffectual and unable to achieve their goals. If you measure by legislation passed, that’s pretty much on target. Given that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 26, 2017
Chuck and Nancy National Politics Trump’s Tap Dance With Chuck and Nancy Comes at a Price Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 22, 2017
National Politics Trump Drives a Wedge Between GOP Senate Candidates and His Base The challenge for Democrats trying to take back the Senate is formidable. Ten Democratic incumbents are up in states carried by Donald Trump last year, five in states that Trump won by 19 points or… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 19, 2017
National Politics The Urgent Need to Repair Our Broken Politics An article in Washington Monthly caught my eye the other day. It compared the United States today to Germany between the two World Wars. As a rule, I’m wary of historical analogies. It seems that the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 15, 2017
Senate Overview Democrats Face Steep Climb to Win Back the Senate It’s hard to ignore the storm clouds gathering for Republicans looking toward the 2018 elections. Midterms are typically referenda on the incumbent president and the party in power, and Donald Trump’… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 12, 2017
National Politics Lessons From an Ineffective President If you wanted to offer a graduate-school class in how not to be an effective president of the United States, Donald Trump could write the textbook and teach the course. The first lesson would be to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 8, 2017
National Politics Will the 2018 Midterms Follow Historic Patterns? In political handicapping you often have to reconcile a conflict between macro and micro dynamics. The macro, or big-picture factors, focus on the sitting president, with his popularity highly… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 18, 2017
National Politics Can Kelly Rein in the Unruly President? One of the more interesting political questions these days is whether Gen. John Kelly can bring some semblance of order to the Trump White House. IF anyone can transform the most disorganized and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 11, 2017
National Politics Bad News for GOP: Trump Isn’t Changing Not quite 50 years ago, one of the last of the Big Band crooners, Peggy Lee, recorded a hit song, “Is That All There Is?” That, no doubt, captures the discouraged sentiment of a lot of Republicans… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 4, 2017
National Politics Midterms Are About the Party in Power, Not Issues To the extent that there are “normal” times in American politics, the general line of demarcation is fairly straightforward: Democrats vs. Republicans. Even factoring in shades of liberal, moderate,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 1, 2017
National Politics Trump Rules by Gut, Not Brains It’s ironic that what makes Donald Trump so authentic to his supporters is what is keeping him from being an effective president. His supporters love that he is not a career politician, that he hasn’… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 28, 2017
National Politics GOP Divisions Doomed Health Care Bill The collapse of the Senate Republican health care bill isn’t all that complicated and shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. Like some bad marriages, you can chalk it up to “irreconcilable differences… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 25, 2017
National Politics Authenticity Is Key to Democratic Chances Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 21, 2017
National Politics Why Trump’s Approval Ratings Hold Firm Earlier this week, a friend who leans decidedly Democratic was euphoric over news reports that one of the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-Trump… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 18, 2017
National Politics Midterm Questions for the GOP Start­ing Tues­day, the House is in ses­sion 13 days and the Sen­ate 14 be­fore the Au­gust re­cess be­gins. As con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans face their long list of to-do items, one thing will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 14, 2017
National Politics Democrats Take Heart: The GOP Is Sinking After last month’s losses in the Geor­gia 6th Dis­trict and South Car­o­lina 5th Dis­trict races, a nar­rat­ive took hold on why the Demo­crat­ic Party had whiffed in all four com­pet­it­ive spe­cial… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 11, 2017
National Politics Trump Erodes U.S. Tradition of Global Leadership When Pres­id­ent Trump heads to Po­land and the G-20 sum­mit in Ger­many this week, he will be go­ing in a dif­fer­ent ca­pa­city than any pres­id­ent in our life­times. Dur­ing the first half of the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 7, 2017
National Politics The GOP’s Health Care Dilemma There are di­lem­mas and then there are real di­lem­mas. On health care, Re­pub­lic­ans are in a real di­lemma. Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans prom­ised their base a mil­lion times that they would… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 4, 2017
National Politics Democrats Find It’s Risky to Poke the GOP Elephant There’s an old say­ing that close only counts in horse­shoes and hand gren­ades, and that’s cer­tainly how Demo­crats must feel after los­ing their third and fourth at­tempts of the year to wrestle… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 27, 2017
National Politics Can GOP Candidates Outrun Trump? The score is now 2-1: Bri­tain has pro­duced two stun­ning elect­or­al sur­prises in the last year, the United States just one. While there is a danger in read­ing too much in­to the res­ults of in­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 16, 2017
National Politics An Early Look at Democrats’ 2020 Brackets We’re only 140 days in­to a new pres­id­en­tial ad­min­is­tra­tion and yet there is already a stream of art­icles spec­u­lat­ing about the con­test for the 2020 Demo­crat­ic nom­in­a­tion. There is a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 13, 2017
National Politics A Three-Ring Political Circus Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey Cir­cus has gone out of busi­ness, but Wash­ing­ton is still provid­ing a three-ring cir­cus. The first is Pres­id­ent Trump’s de­cision to drop out of the Par­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 9, 2017
National Politics Russia Probes Could Be a Millstone in Midterms for the GOP With the midterm elec­tions 17 months away, it’s pretty clear that all of this Rus­sia busi­ness is rel­ev­ant. We have a new pres­id­ent with no gov­ern­ment ex­per­i­ence, a mer­cur­i­al tem­pera­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 6, 2017
National Politics A Week That Could Revive Trump Last week, it was the role of Rus­sia in the 2016 cam­paign that dom­in­ated the news; this week, with Pres­id­ent Trump on his first over­seas trip and largely stick­ing to his script, it’s more… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 25, 2017
National Politics The Unfolding Republican Nightmare If a Demo­crat had a night­mare a year ago, it might well look like what happened in last Novem­ber’s elec­tions. If a Re­pub­lic­an had a night­mare on the eve of Pres­id­ent Trump’s in­aug­ur­a­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 23, 2017
National Politics Time for a Special Prosecutor This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 16, 2017 Al­most as soon as the votes were coun­ted in Novem­ber, some Demo­crats began clam­or­ing for the ap­point­ment of a spe­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 18, 2017
National Politics Comey’s Firing Shakes Up Jittery Republicans This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 11, 2017 It’s time for con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans and their strategists to start pop­ping their blood-pres­sure meds. Even be­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 16, 2017
Waves National Politics Surf’s Up For a Wave Election Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 11, 2017
National Politics Clinton’s Defeat: Outside Factors Hurt, but Blame Falls on the Candidate This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 5, 2017 Fin­ish­ing Amie Parnes and Jonath­an Al­len’s en­gross­ing book, Shattered: In­side Hil­lary Clin­ton’s Doomed Cam­paign,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 9, 2017
National Politics The Divided States of America This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 2, 2017 The bit­ter par­tis­an­ship that has en­vel­oped Cap­it­ol Hill, the White House, Wash­ing­ton, and the coun­try is deeply… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 5, 2017
National Politics Trump Buoyed By Hope and Faith, Not Results This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 28, 2017 In Texas, when people talk loudly and prom­ise a lot but de­liv­er little, they are said to be “all hat and no cattle.”… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 2, 2017
National Politics Trump Banks On Second 100 Days This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 24, 2017 It is ab­so­lutely true that there is noth­ing spe­cial about a new pres­id­ent’s first 100 days. It is an ar­bit­rary… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 27, 2017
Trump National Politics Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job Training Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 20, 2017
National Politics Big Warning Signs for the GOP This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 14, 2017 The bot­tom didn’t fall out for Re­pub­lic­ans in this week’s House spe­cial elec­tion to re­place newly-min­ted CIA Dir­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 18, 2017
National Politics Watching Special Elections for Signs of a Wave This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 10, 2017 Wichita is 1,250 miles from Wash­ing­ton, D.C., but you can bet quite a few people in­side the Belt­way will be check­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 13, 2017
National Politics How the Senate’s Cooling Function Became a Partisan Boil This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 7, 2017  For those of us who revere Con­gress and, in my case, par­tic­u­larly the Sen­ate, hav­ing first worked there as an in­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 11, 2017
National Politics Shutdown Crisis Looms for GOP This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2017 If you could be a fly on the wall eaves­drop­ping on a meet­ing these days, only one would be more in­ter­est­ing than the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 7, 2017
National Politics The Dizzying Effect of Trump's Roller-Coaster Presidency This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 30, 2017 Soon after Don­ald Trump was elec­ted pres­id­ent it be­came strik­ingly clear that these would be no or­din­ary times,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 4, 2017
National Politics Trump's Uncertain Next Move This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 28, 2017 With Fri­day’s col­lapse of the Re­pub­lic­an ef­fort to de­cap­it­ate Pres­id­ent Obama’s Af­ford­able Care Act, it… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 31, 2017
National Politics A Presidency Headed in the Wrong Direction This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 24, 2017 Nobody knows where this nas­cent Don­ald Trump pres­id­ency is go­ing. New ad­min­is­tra­tions start off with an in­fin­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 28, 2017
National Politics Republicans Weigh Their RyanCare Votes This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 21, 2017  More than a few House Re­pub­lic­ans are likely to be tak­ing deep breaths as they board the sub­way from the Long­worth… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 23, 2017
National Politics Trump's Budget Would Rattle the World This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 17, 2017  The back­lash that Re­pub­lic­ans are ex­per­i­en­cing on their pro­posed Amer­ic­an Health Care Act is very real and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 21, 2017
National Politics The Parties Prep for a Rematch This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 13, 2017  There are three dis­tinct­ive sea­sons in the bi­an­nu­al elec­tion cycle. The first is to fig­ure out what happened in… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 17, 2017
Donald Trump and Paul Ryan National Politics Trump Pushes Health Bill, But Ryan Owns It Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 14, 2017
National Politics Trump Walks the Political High Wire This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 7, 2017 Pres­id­ent Trump is go­ing to miss Hil­lary Clin­ton. Last Novem­ber, both Trump and Clin­ton had en­thu­si­ast­ic sup­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 10, 2017
National Reality Intrudes on Trump’s Dream Palace This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 3, 2017 New York Fed Pres­id­ent Wil­li­am Dud­ley told CNN on Tues­day that “there’s no ques­tion that an­im­al spir­its have been… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 7, 2017
National Politics Hostile Swing Voters Spell Trouble for House Republicans This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 24, 2017 The two-thirds of Re­pub­lic­ans in the House who have nev­er served when the GOP held ma­jor­it­ies in the House and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 28, 2017
National Politics Trump’s Fine-Tuned Machine Runs Like an Oil-Burning Jalopy This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 17, 2017 As a can­did­ate, Don­ald Trump thor­oughly en­joyed dis­mant­ling and tor­tur­ing the Re­pub­lic­an wing of the Re­pub… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 21, 2017
GA-06 House Field Set in GA-06 Special Election Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 17, 2017
National Politics GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018 This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 14, 2017 Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 17, 2017
National Politics Power Brings Headaches for Hill Republicans This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 10, 2017 Congressional Republicans in general and the more conservative members in particular are already finding life in the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 14, 2017
National Politics Trump and Trumpians Still in Sync This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on February 7, 2017 Two things seem abund­antly clear right now. First, Pres­id­ent Trump’s agenda and pri­or­it­ies are ex­actly what he… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 10, 2017
National Politics How Analytical Models Failed Clinton This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 27, 2016 The Novem­ber elec­tions pit­ted Demo­crats against Re­pub­lic­ans, con­ser­vat­ives against lib­er­als, Trump-style… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 30, 2016
National Politics What Happens When Parties Move to Extremes This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 23, 2016 Busi­ness, and in­deed the whole eco­nomy, ap­pre­ci­ate and prosper with sta­bil­ity and pre­dict­ab­il­ity. Wild pen… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 27, 2016
National Politics Democrats Need to Reach Out to the Heartland If Demo­crats want to keep blam­ing oth­ers for their sorry per­form­ance on Elec­tion Day, they’re ob­vi­ously free to do so. Yes, they were hurt by the dis­clos­ure of Hil­lary Clin­ton’s private… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 23, 2016
National Politics 56 Interesting Facts About the 2016 Election Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s victory was definitely THE most interesting thing that happened in the 2016 election, but it certainly wasn’t the only interesting thing. In keeping… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 16, 2016
Louisiana Senate Test Article 4 Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetur adipiscing elit. Integer sed est nec dui pharetra commodo. Proin consequat, nisl sed tempus hendrerit, metus purus tristique enim, facilisis pulvinar purus… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 14, 2016
National Politics Voters Knew What They Were Getting With Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 6, 2016 Vir­tu­ally every day, Pres­id­ent-elect Don­ald Trump says or does something that many in the Wash­ing­ton es­tab­lish­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 9, 2016
National Politics Trump Shows He’s a Bully With a Pulpit This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on December 2, 2016 A tweet by Don­ald Trump earli­er this week caused eye-rolling among people with an even curs­ory know­ledge of con­sti­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 6, 2016
National Politics Uphill Climb for Democrats in 2018 This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 28, 2016 In just a few weeks Demo­crats have gone from driv­ing for what figured to be an easy lay up to hav­ing the rest of the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 2, 2016
National Politics The Truthful Hyperbole of Donald Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 18, 2016 At least half of Washington and plenty of people beyond the Beltway are taking a crash course in Donald Trump, trying… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 22, 2016
National Politics Trump Grasped What Others Missed This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 15, 2016 Be­fore as­sign­ing blame for why Hil­lary Clin­ton lost a race that she was sup­posed to win, it seems ap­pro­pri­ate… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 18, 2016
National Politics Americans Roll the Dice On Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 11, 2016 If there is a contradiction in Tuesday’s presidential-election results, it’s that Americans desperately wanted change… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 15, 2016
National Politics Cook’s Crystal Ball: Clinton Wins, Democrats To Control Senate This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 8, 2016 While there still is a path to 270 elect­or­al votes for Don­ald Trump, it’s barely vis­ible. It would re­quire win­ning… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 11, 2016
National Politics Relax, America: We’ll Survive the Election This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 4, 2016 When Ger­ald Ford was sworn in­to of­fice after Pres­id­ent Nix­on’s resig­na­tion, he said, “My fel­low Amer­ic­ans,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 8, 2016
National Politics Mad as Hell and Nowhere to Turn This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on November 1, 2016 Ever since the news broke on Fri­day that new emails had emerged that could per­tain to the in­vest­ig­a­tion of Hil­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 4, 2016
National Politics Follow the Money: Clinton Campaign's Final Week of Television Spending (Updated 2PM 11-2-16) During their coverage of the Watergate scandal, Washington Post reporters Bob Woodward and Carl Bernstein were told to "follow the money." In trying to determine which are the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 2, 2016
National Politics Only the Margin Seems in Doubt in the Presidential Race This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 28, 2016 With just over 10 days to go be­fore Elec­tion Day, the out­come of the pres­id­en­tial con­test seems settled though… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 1, 2016
National Politics For GOP, Time To Worry, Not To Panic This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 24, 2016 For sev­er­al weeks many Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates and op­er­at­ives have been fret­ting that Don­ald Trump’s mis­be­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 28, 2016
National Politics Donald Trump Leaves a Car Wreck Behind This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 21, 2016 Re­pub­lic­ans will now have four years to think about what they did to them­selves this year, plenty of time to con­tem… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 25, 2016
National Politics Clinton Takes Command, But Senate Still a Toss-Up This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 18, 2016 It’s get­ting in­creas­ingly dif­fi­cult to char­ac­ter­ize the pres­id­en­tial race as com­pet­it­ive. It really isn’t… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 21, 2016
National Politics Trump’s Travails Roil Down-Ballot Races This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 14, 2016 What a dif­fer­ence a week makes. In the wake of the first pres­id­en­tial de­bate, Hil­lary Clin­ton looked to be… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 18, 2016
National Politics Elites Shouldn’t Ignore the Lessons of 2016 This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 7, 2016 The head­line of a column by The New York Times’ Jim Ruten­berg in Thursday’s pa­per asked the ques­tion, “Ed­it­or­i­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 11, 2016
National Politics Clinton Cruises With a Lead of 3 to 5 Points This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on October 4, 2016 Let’s start with the caveats: A lot can hap­pen in the 34 days be­fore the elec­tion. The polls are not as re­li­able as… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 7, 2016
National Politics Clinton Firms Up Her Narrow Lead This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 30, 2016 We’re in the polit­ic­al twi­light peri­od that comes after the first pres­id­en­tial de­bate but be­fore re­li­able… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 4, 2016
National Politics Clinton’s Narrow Lead Could Produce an Electoral Rout This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 23, 2016 This pres­id­en­tial race is very, very close, with the poll av­er­ages show­ing Hil­lary Clin­ton nurs­ing a small… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 27, 2016
National Politics Clinton’s Up, But Hedge Your Bet This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 19, 2016 If you fo­cus on the na­tion­al pres­id­en­tial horse-race polls, Hil­lary Clin­ton has a sliv­er of a lead over Don­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 23, 2016
National Politics The Race Tightens But the Math Heavily Favors Clinton This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 16, 2016 Polls com­ing out every day make it clear that this pres­id­en­tial race has got­ten very close. Na­tion­al sur­veys… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 20, 2016
National Politics Hillary Clinton’s Dumb Campaign This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 12, 2016 It’s in­ter­est­ing to watch Hil­lary Clin­ton’s highly schizo­phren­ic cam­paign. On one level, in terms of strategy… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 16, 2016
National Politics The Race Tightens, But It’s Still Clinton’s to Lose This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 9, 2016 There’s no doubt that the presidential race has tightened up, but the operative question is whether Don­ald Trump has… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 13, 2016
National Politics Surveying the Labor Day Election Landscape This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on September 1, 2016 The start of Labor Day week­end, the tra­di­tion­al be­gin­ning of the gen­er­al elec­tion, is a good time to take… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 6, 2016
National Politics The Story of 2016: Republicans Feeling “Betrayed” by Their Leaders This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 30, 2016 Ar­gu­ably the biggest polit­ic­al story of the past year has been the breadth and depth of the an­ger and ali­en­a­tion… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 2, 2016
National Politics Why Trump’s Immigration Switch Won’t Move the Needle This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 26, 2016 The topic du jour is Donald Trump’s attempted walk-back of his position on immigration—roughly speaking, from an… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 30, 2016
National Politics Predicting Turnout in an Unpredictable Race This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 22, 2016 This presidential race seems to have stabilized at a point where the probability of Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 26, 2016
National Politics A Big Presidential Win Doesn’t Guarantee Success Down-Ballot This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 18, 2016 The conventional wisdom holds that the worse a presidential candidate does, the more likely his or her party’s down-… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 23, 2016
National Politics Demography Explains Perceptions of Clinton and Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 12, 2016   This week a friend showed me the New Yorker cover from June 1, 2015 with a drawing of seven leading candidates for the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 16, 2016
National Politics New August Electoral College Ratings The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 15, 2016
National Politics Doubting a Down-Ballot Wave This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 9, 2016 The latest ABC News/Wash­ing­ton Post poll puts Hil­lary Clin­ton ahead of Don­ald Trump by 8 points in the three-way tri… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 12, 2016
National Politics Is the Presidential Race Over? This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 5, 2016 Is the 2016 presidential race over? I suppose the answer to that question turns on how you define “over.” Is there… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 9, 2016
National Politics Digging Into the Postconvention Polls This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on August 2, 2016 His­tor­ic­ally, polls start tak­ing much great­er pre­dict­ive value around 30 days after the last con­ven­tion, so the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 5, 2016
National Politics One Nation, Divisible By Demography and Ideology This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 28, 2016 Many people have said this before, but it’s worth saying again: If a few years ago, someone wrote a political potboiler… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 2, 2016
National Politics Trump Gets Bounce From Convention and Now It’s Clinton’s Turn This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 26, 2016 Take your pick among the two ma­jor na­tion­al polls re­leased Monday morn­ing: Either Don­ald Trump is ahead of Hil­lary… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 29, 2016
National Politics In the End, Cruz was True to Himself This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 22, 2016 With a one-two punch, Ted Cruz ef­fect­ively launched his can­did­acy for the 2020 Re­pub­lic­an pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 26, 2016
National Politics Searching the Polls for Clues in the Clinton-Trump Race This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 18, 2016  The Republican National Convention is now underway, with the critical question being whether it can reconfigure a race… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 22, 2016
National Politics Unavoidably, the Nice Tragedy Affects Politics in the U.S. This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 15, 2016 Tragedy strikes again, this time in the south of France. The blood­shed in Nice was just as hor­rif­ic as the as­saults in… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 18, 2016
National Politics Upbeat Democrats Get Bayh Boost This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 11, 2016  Democrats are feeling bullish these days, and former Sen. Evan Bayh’s decision to jump into Indiana’s Senate race adds to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 15, 2016
National Politics Clinton Runs Free of Indictment This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 6, 2016 FBI Dir­ect­or James Comey’s an­nounce­ment Tues­day morn­ing that Hil­lary Clin­ton will not be in­dicted ef­fect­ively re… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 8, 2016
National Politics A Deep Dive into the Race for the Senate This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on July 1, 2016  The word “volatile” doesn’t begin to describe the fight for a Senate majority this year. With the current split of 54… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 5, 2016
National Politics What Brexit Means for the Presidential Race This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 27, 2016. In terms of Amer­ic­an polit­ics, Bri­tain’s vote to leave the European Uni­on is something of a “Goldilocks” event. In­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 1, 2016
National Politics Trump Needs a Trick of Fates to Win This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 20, 2016. Last week, it was Detroit; Colorado Springs; Los Angeles; Newport Beach, California; Salt Lake City; Park City, Utah; and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 24, 2016
National Politics Republicans Need to Focus on Down-Ballot Candidates This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 17, 2016. The range of emotions for most Republicans I know—from present and former members of Congress, to Hill staff, to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 21, 2016
National Politics Why Orlando Won’t Decide the Race This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 13, 2016. It is all too predictable. A tragic event occurs, and it appropriately dominates broadcast and cable news, talk radio,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 17, 2016
National Politics Voting for the Lesser of Two Evils This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 9, 2016. Generally speaking, much of the focus in elections is on the “swing vote.” This is usually defined as undecided voters;… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 14, 2016
National Politics Heartburn Over Sanders and Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 7, 2016. Two of the most pressing questions in American politics right now are whether and how Bernie Sanders will make things… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 10, 2016
National Politics Why Clinton Should Win: There Are More Democrats This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 2, 2016. As a general rule, partisans stick together. The national exit polls conducted in 2012 showed that President Obama… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 7, 2016
National Politics The Trump-Clinton Race Is Not As Close As It Looks This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 30, 2016. The latest round of polls released prior to Memorial Day weekend, which showed Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 3, 2016
National Politics Hold Your Noses on Election Day This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 23, 2016. Hardly anyone predicted a Trump-Clinton presidential matchup. Even more surprising, the race is fundamentally tied right… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 27, 2016
National Politics Anti-Trump vs. Anti-Clinton Voters This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 19, 2016. Now that we know what the general-election matchups will be, a couple of thoughts are in order. First, while I give… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 24, 2016
National Politics Throwing the Dice on a Veep Pick This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 16, 2016. When people discuss vice presidential running mates, I’m always surprised that they tend to get fix­ated on one factor to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 19, 2016
National Politics Clinton Must Motivate, Trump Needs to Persuade This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 12, 2016. It’s a little iron­ic that the pre­sumptive nom­in­ee in one party put all his rivals on the side­lines after win­ning… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 17, 2016
National Politics Can the GOP Pick Up the Pieces? This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 9, 2016 All of us in the political-pundit class could be wrong again about Donald Trump, along with 25 of the 29 national polls… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 13, 2016
National Politics The Numbers Favor Hillary Clinton Over Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 5, 2016. Now that the presidential nominations are set for each side, pollsters are busy surveying states and, with their… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 10, 2016
National Politics Hill Republicans Jittery Over Trump Nomination This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on May 2, 2016. A lot of Republicans are walking around in a daze these days, trying to figure out the implications of Donald Trump… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 6, 2016
National Politics Trump Couldn’t Possibly Win—Except That He Probably Will This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 28, 2016. The thing that I never thought would happen is really happening. The idea that the Republican Party would nominate… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 3, 2016
National Politics Clinton’s Best Friend? The GOP This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 25, 2016 Hillary Clinton finds herself these days moving from good news to bad news and then to good news again. The first bit of… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 29, 2016
National Politics Economic Blues Define Campaign This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 18, 2016 Grow­ing up in the South, I learned the ex­pres­sion, “When Momma ain’t happy, ain’t nobody happy.” This year, it seems… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 22, 2016
National Politics A True Right vs. Left Choice Looms This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 14, 2016 Maybe I am all wet, but I re­main con­vinced that the first bal­lot at the Re­pub­lic­an Na­tion­al Con­ven­tion is a do-… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 19, 2016
National Politics To Win, Clinton Needs to Heal This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 11, 2016 Please spare me the tiff between Hil­lary Clin­ton and Bernie Sanders over who is qual­i­fied to be pres­id­ent. Art­icle… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 15, 2016
National Politics It’ll Be Cruz or Trump, Like It or Not This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 7, 2016 Whenev­er I hear Re­pub­lic­ans wax on about the pos­sib­il­ity of nom­in­at­ing someone oth­er than Don­ald Trump or Ted… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 12, 2016
National Politics GOP Gripped by Gloom as Democrats Stay Hopeful This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on April 4, 2016 Re­pub­lic­an pros fall in­to two cat­egor­ies: The op­tim­ists are deeply con­cerned, while the pess­im­ists are des­pond… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 8, 2016
National Politics Trump Candidacy Stoked by Clinton This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 31, 2016 The news­pa­pers, air­waves, and In­ter­net are alive with pre­dic­tions that the polit­ic­al tide has turned against Don… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 5, 2016
National Politics The Gulf Between the Donor Class and the Working Class This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 28, 2016 Nich­olas Con­fess­ore’s ter­rif­ic, front-page piece in Monday’s New York Times dove­tailed nicely with a March 11 rant… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 1, 2016
National Politics Donald Trump’s Glass Jaw This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 24, 2016 It’s easy to un­der­stand why Re­pub­lic­ans are so frus­trated about this pres­id­en­tial elec­tion. Both his­tory and a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 28, 2016
National Politics Trump Tremors Go Down Ballot This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 21, 2016.  With a con­tested Re­pub­lic­an Na­tion­al Con­ven­tion as the most likely out­come this un­likely primary sea­son, Re­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 25, 2016
National Politics For GOP Establishment, There Are Only Bad Options This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 17, 2016 For the more con­ven­tion­al, es­tab­lish­ment-ori­ented Re­pub­lic­ans in this pres­id­en­tial elec­tion, things could… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 21, 2016
National Politics Crunch Time for Donald Trump This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 14, 2016. If you lined up a dozen or two na­tion­al polit­ic­al re­port­ers and ana­lysts, most would say that Don­ald Trump will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 17, 2016
National Politics “Stop Trump Tuesday” in Florida and Ohio This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 10, 2016. In this screw­ball year, it’s dan­ger­ous to say any­thing defin­it­ively, but it sure looks like Tues­day’s Ohio Re­pub­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 14, 2016
National Politics Trump’s the Front-Runner, But He’s No Shoo-in This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on March 3, 2016 The con­ven­tion­al wis­dom seems to be mov­ing to the as­sump­tion that Don­ald Trump is the in­ev­it­able Re­pub­lic­an… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 7, 2016
National Politics Trump Barrels Along the Fast Track This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 25, 2016 This has been a year in which all of the con­ven­tion­al rules of polit­ics have been sus­pen­ded, at least tem­por­ar­ily… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 3, 2016
National Politics Will Trump Keep Getting a Pass? This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 25, 2016 Fri­day, after Thursday night’s GOP primary de­bate,* we cer­tainly won’t know wheth­er Don­ald Trump’s up­ward tra­ject­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 29, 2016
National Politics Don’t Blame Jeb Bush’s Fall on Campaign Strategy This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 22, 2016 It’s been said all too of­ten in re­cent days that blame for the de­mise of Jeb Bush’s can­did­acy lies with his cam­paign… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 25, 2016
National Politics At Last, Trump’s Circus Tent Starts to Sag This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 18, 2016 For the re­cord, I have nev­er said, writ­ten, or thought that Don­ald Trump would win the Re­pub­lic­an nom­in­a­tion.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 23, 2016
National Politics The GOP Nod Will Go to Trump or Cruz, Unless the Establishment Sorts Itself Out This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 15, 2016 With every passing day, the odds in­crease that the Re­pub­lic­an pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­tion will come down to a choice… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 18, 2016
National Politics After Scalia Dies, It’s Hardball Politics As Usual This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on Feb. 14, 2016 This past week­end, we saw a mi­cro­cosm of much of what is wrong in Amer­ic­an polit­ics. About an hour after it was con­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 17, 2016
National Politics Hillary Clinton Will Win the Nomination, But Then What? Hil­lary Clin­ton is fa­cing a myri­ad of chal­lenges in her bid to be­come pres­id­ent, but los­ing the Demo­crat­ic nom­in­a­tion to Bernie Sanders is not one. Iron­ic­ally while Clin­ton was… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 15, 2016
National Politics GOP Establishment in a Tizzy For lead­ers of the Re­pub­lic­an es­tab­lish­ment, things could not look much worse. They des­per­ately need one of the four con­ven­tion­al, main­stream can­did­ates—Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, John… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 11, 2016
National Politics Charlie Cook on the New Hampshire Primary   Republicans 1. Trump had a great night. While I am still quite sure that Donald Trump will not be the Republican nominee; unlike in the Iowa Caucus, he did turn in an impressive performance and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 10, 2016
National Politics In the Iowa Caucuses, Look for Results That Surprise You Both the GOP and Demo­crat­ic races will turn on wheth­er emo­tion tops or­gan­iz­a­tion. The Iowa Caucuses on Monday night can be ex­pec­ted to provide some clar­ity in the con­tests for the Demo­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 2, 2016
National Politics A Time for Culling, Not for Winning It’s now less than a week be­fore the Iowa caucuses, two weeks be­fore the New Hamp­shire primary, and thus time for polit­ic­al afi­cion­ados to whip them­selves in­to frenzy. People of­ten be­come… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 29, 2016
National Politics For Clinton, It’s Time to Stay Cool in Iowa and New Hampshire Some­times politi­cians get in­to a tough po­s­i­tion with no easy way out, and their best op­tion is just to plow straight ahead. Hil­lary Clin­ton is now in such a po­s­i­tion. The most reput­able… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 22, 2016
National Politics Talking About Trump May Pay Off on Television, But… It’s get­ting in­creas­ingly an­noy­ing to watch people who os­tens­ibly know a lot about polit­ics go­ing on tele­vi­sion and say­ing things that I am reas­on­ably sure they don’t really be­lieve.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 15, 2016
National Politics Trump, Cruz, and a Cage Fight The pre­season phase of the pres­id­en­tial cam­paign is now of­fi­cially over, so what can we ex­pect—that is, if any­thing can really be ex­pec­ted this year? Cer­tainly few, if any­one, an­ti­cip­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 8, 2016
National Politics What’s on the Line in Las Vegas As we get older, some of us ac­cu­mu­late pet peeves. For me, this is one: when journ­al­ists write of an up­com­ing event as tan­tamount to a turn­ing point in the his­tory of civil­iz­a­tion, or at… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 18, 2015
National Politics Damned if He Spoke and … Nev­er hav­ing been pres­id­ent, I can only guess that the day of the Kennedy Cen­ter Hon­ors ex­tra­vag­anza would be one of the most en­joy­able of the year. Not the part about dress­ing up in form… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 11, 2015
National Politics Both Sides Now An age-old ar­gu­ment among polit­ic­al op­er­at­ives is the re­l­at­ive im­port­ance of per­sua­sion versus turnout. One group makes the case that scarce cam­paign re­sources should go to­ward tar­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 7, 2015
National Politics The GOP’s Stages of Grief Eight years ago, I de­clared that I would win the Tour de France be­fore Rudy Gi­uliani won the Re­pub­lic­an pres­id­en­tial nom­in­a­tion, even though he was sit­ting atop the polls. With Don­ald… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 4, 2015
National Politics Of Paris and (Would-Be) Presidents Last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris amounted to a 9/11 event for the French and, for Americans, a vivid memory of that horrific day 14 years ago. It also reminds us that we could very well have… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 24, 2015
National Politics The Specter of …Normalcy Few would ar­gue with the premise that, in the five months since June, pres­id­en­tial polit­ics have be­haved in ex­traordin­ary ways. The “Feel The Bern” surge of Bernie Sanders on the left and the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 20, 2015
Louisiana Governor Louisiana Governor: Vitter’s Struggles Move this Race to Lean Democrat To be honest, I am very surprised that the Louisiana governor’s race has become hotly contested. I didn’t expect that we would move it to the Toss Up as we did on October 26 just after the primary,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 13, 2015
Governors Overview As Kentucky Goes… Just a week ago, before the off-year elections, Democratic strategists were feeling bullish about their prospects in the South. In Louisiana, a Democrat had surpassed the state’s senior senator on… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 10, 2015
National Politics In Search of the Anti-Politician You can look at polls and read news accounts all day long, but the frustration, despair—and, in some cases, rage—among a multitude of Republican voters can be lost in the numbers. Better to let them… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 3, 2015
National Politics Republicans, Obsessed Ques­tion: What’s the dif­fer­ence between the House Se­lect Com­mit­tee on Benghazi’s hear­ings last week and a train wreck? An­swer: Once a train is com­ing off the rails, the pas­sen­gers know it… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 30, 2015
National Politics The Two Faces of the GOP Defying the predictions of just about everyone who watches politics even remotely, the two nontraditional Republican presidential contenders remain at the top of just-released opinion polls. Public… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 27, 2015
National Politics Speaker’s Choice He doesn’t want the job—Paul Ry­an has made that abund­antly clear—but Re­pub­lic­ans still hope that the Ways and Means Com­mit­tee chair­man will change his mind and seek the House speak­er­ship.… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 23, 2015
National Politics Experience? Fuhgeddaboudit! Given the prevailing anger at Washington and career politicians, it shouldn’t be a surprise that voters increasingly see experience as overrated. An opinion poll conducted nationwide by the Pew… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 13, 2015
National Politics The GOP’s Senate Worries Incumbents elected in the 2010 midterms will face an electorate that is demographically more daunting in a presidential year. No mat­ter how en­ter­tain­ing the cir­cus of the pres­id­en­tial cam­… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 9, 2015
National Politics The GOP’s Culture War One of my favorite work-related pastimes is to comb through public opinion polls. Like a miner panning for gold nuggets, I’m searching for a new insight or something that illustrates a point more… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 6, 2015
National Politics Self-Immolation, Times Two A few weeks be­fore the 2010 elec­tion, I ran in­to then-House Minor­ity Lead­er John Boehner at a re­cep­tion. Pres­id­ent Obama’s ap­prov­al rat­ings were tank­ing, the Af­ford­able Care Act that… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 2, 2015
National Politics Is the Earth Returning to Its Axis? One or even two opinion polls don’t constitute a trend, and it’s fool hardy to put too much emphasis on such a small sampling. But the first live-telephone interview survey released after last week’s… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 25, 2015
National Politics Charlie Cook on the Meaning of Boehner's Resignation In the wake of Speaker John Boehner’s resignation from Congress as well as national polls and other developments, it is hard to say which party should be more afraid - Republicans whose party seems… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 25, 2015
National Politics Hey, Let’s Chill Out In this tumultuous presidential race, it’s time for people to step back and take a deep breath. Whenever I hear someone say, “This time is different,” I have to repress the urge to roll my eyes. In… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 22, 2015
National Politics The ‘Scarlet P’ Normally, the hopes and fears of the two major political parties are roughly symmetric. If one party is worried or pessimistic, the other party is usually hopeful or optimistic. There are occasional… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 18, 2015
National Politics The Democrats’ Distress It’s start with the children’s book and recent movie, Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day, then substitute Hillary Clinton for Alexander and year for day. Hardly original: A… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 15, 2015
National Politics Those Renegade Republicans Is the Republican Party going rogue? It’s hard to look at the opinion polling in the GOP presidential nomination contest and conclude anything else. As un­expected as many of the developments on the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 11, 2015
National Politics An Early Look at the Electoral College In less than a year, both parties will have selected their presidential nominees and running mates. With Labor Day, the final stretch of campaign 2016 will begin. Unfortunately most Americans will… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 8, 2015
National Politics Interesting Stuff We Thought You Might Want to Read While I remain skeptical about a Biden candidacy, barring Hillary Clinton's situation worsens greatly in the coming weeks, his former Chief of Staff and Senate successor Ted Kaufman posted a link on… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook September 3, 2015
National Politics Charlie's Quick Reaction to the First GOP Debate The biggest winner was Fox News. The questions were tough but fair, no one can accuse Fox of pulling their punches. Donald Trump came into the debate with a big lead in the polls so they reserved… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 7, 2015
National Politics Biden vs. Clinton Buzz Adds to 2016 Intrigue It certainly is hard for me to relate to University of Alabama and New York Jets quarterback Joe Namath's 1969 fun autobiography, I Can't Wait Until Tomorrow ... 'Cause I Get Better-Looking Every Day… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 6, 2015
National Politics The Trump Conundrum August is arriving, and we are entering week six of Donald Trump's rise—first into the double digits, now into first place—in the national polls for the Republican presidential primary race. While… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook August 4, 2015
National Politics Is Clinton's Tide Shifting? The job of a political analyst is to have a theory of what is happening and why, and what will happen and why. But an analyst also has the responsibility to ask: Am I right? Are things changing? Have… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 31, 2015
National Politics Trump-Free Scenarios for 2016 With Donald Trump dominating the headlines and cable-news shows, it's easy to get caught up in the machinations of the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign and lose sight of the stakes—which are even… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 28, 2015
National Politics What Donald Trump's Surge Meant It was inevitable: If given enough rope, Donald Trump would hang himself. Trump's statement Saturday in Iowa that Sen. John McCain was no war hero was all it took. This was so predictable; nobody… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 24, 2015
National Politics A New Poll Shows the Contours of the GOP Field Let's face it, Donald Trump's campaign is going to be like a tire with a bad leak: The car will go on for a while, but losing speed and increasingly wobbling, so this vehicle is not likely to make it… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 23, 2015
National Politics Like Kids in an Ice-Cream Shop The situation in which Republican voters find themselves these days is looking more and more like the experience of someone visiting a Baskin-Robbins. Walking into the ice-cream shop, one is… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 21, 2015
National Politics Will Trust Be a Deal-Breaker for Hillary Clinton? One topic that often comes up in serious conversations about 2016 presidential politics is whether questions about Hillary Clinton's trustworthiness will be her undoing. Not surprisingly, many of her… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 17, 2015
National Politics Ben Wattenberg and the Changing 'Real Majority' When I attended a funeral service last week for Ben Wattenberg, it really hit me how much our country and politics have changed in the 45 years since he and Richard Scammon wrote The Real Majority, a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 10, 2015
National Politics A Momentous Week, and a GOP That Needs to Change The momentous events of the last week can be interpreted in numerous ways. But one thing has become increasingly clear: The Republican Party needs to change. One of the key organizing principles—an… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 3, 2015
National Politics The Gender Subplot One of the biggest questions in next year's presidential election will be what role gender will play in the voting and outcome, particularly if former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton wins the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook July 1, 2015
National Politics A Better Way to Keep Score for the 2016 Field Every once in a while, a really good idea or new way of looking at things comes along that is worth replicating. Early this month, J. Ann Selzer, president of Des Moines-based Selzer & Company… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 26, 2015
National Politics Beyond Personalities It's human nature: People's ideas about presidential races are largely shaped by their perceptions of the personalities and images of the candidates. Both voters and the media become preoccupied,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 23, 2015
National Politics Bernie Sanders and the Age Question In recent weeks, many have started treating Sen. Bernie Sanders' campaign for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination seriously, but without addressing or even acknowledging the elephant in the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 19, 2015
National Politics Will Republicans Break Their Pattern? The Republican practice for determining a presidential nominee has long been to have a fight, then nominate whoever's turn it is to be the party's standard-bearer. It has been a relatively orderly,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 16, 2015
National Politics Why Hillary Clinton Is Underwater Hillary Clinton announced her presidential candidacy roughly eight weeks ago, and since then, a few things have become apparent. On the positive side for her, she has put together a first-class team… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 11, 2015
National Politics Top Dogs and Underdogs Another political analyst and I recently decided just for fun to write down what percentage chance we would give the top contenders for the Republican presidential nomination. My colleague was bold,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 9, 2015
National Politics Rand Paul's Risky Politics Politics is always a risky business, with the odds of success the steepest for anyone running for president. So many factors have to line up just right to capture a nomination, and even then, the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook June 4, 2015
National Politics File for Future Reference Here are three pretty much unrelated political facts that may really surprise you and are definitely worth keeping in mind. First, according to Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik, a former Clinton… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 26, 2015
National Politics A Tough Question for 2016 Candidates Several developments over the past week in the presidential race seem worthy of note. Hillary Clinton is coming under increasing fire from journalists and opponents for not answering many questions… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 21, 2015
National Politics The Field Is Flat The field for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination is as flat as any in modern memory—pretty remarkable for a party that usually has a fight but almost invariably ends up nominating whoever's… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 19, 2015
National Politics Handicapping a Democratic Takeover The battle for control of the Senate is finally underway and if early indications are correct, Republicans can be no more confident that they will keep the majority in the next Congress than… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 15, 2015
National Politics Chris Christie's Other Problems There was a lot of talk last week about New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's presidential hopes suffering a mortal blow after two of his associates, including a former deputy chief of staff, were… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 7, 2015
National Politics More 'Green Shoots' on the Hill Last week, this column noted the avoidance of drama this past fall, when another government shutdown could have occurred, and the fact that in recent weeks, Congress eliminated the much reviled… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook May 1, 2015
National Politics How the Public Views the ACA Now It's hard to argue that the Affordable Care Act of 2010 did not have a profound impact on the two most recent midterm elections. The legislation helped spawn the tea-party movement and give the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 28, 2015
National Politics Glimmers of Hope on the Hill The term "green shoots" is increasingly being used to describe the first positive signs of growth after an economic downturn. It is now possible to say that we are seeing green shoots on Capitol Hill… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 24, 2015
National Politics The GOP’s Voter-ID Problem One of the more interesting changes in U.S. politics in recent years has been the increasingly parliamentary nature of voting behavior. Fewer people are straying beyond their party affiliations, we… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 21, 2015
National Politics For 2016, the Parties Are Trading Places As discouraging as the partisanship, polarization, and dysfunction are in Washington these days, I confess to being really excited by the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign. Not that there is… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook April 17, 2015
National Politics Republican Bracketology There are as many ways to look at presidential nomination contests as there are political aficionados. A few weeks ago, I wrote about my preferred method for understanding the GOP race: treating it… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 31, 2015
National Politics Clinton's Rough Road Ahead The front-page headline in The Washington Post said it all: "Democrats in key states ask: Where is Hillary?" Putting aside the simple facts that the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are both 10… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 27, 2015
National Politics The Trouble With Being Jeb For some time, polls have found former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush with higher negative ratings than one might expect of someone who has never before run for president or, until recently, maintained a high… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 17, 2015
National Politics It's Not About the Emails: Clinton's Fate Hangs on Bigger Questions If I knew with certainty that former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was not going to be the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee, I still wouldn't think this kerfuffle over her State Department… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 13, 2015
National Politics The Early Betting Lines for 2016 A question I often am asked is: "Who would you bet on to win the presidency?" Personally, I don't bet on politics, but here's my current take on the 2016 presidential race—with, of course, the caveat… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 10, 2015
National Politics The GOP's Damage Done I confess to feeling terribly conflicted about the impact of last week's debacle over funding of the Homeland Security Department. There is no question that it was yet another example of Washington… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 5, 2015
National Politics Stress Tests for Republicans Just days after the Sept. 15, 2008, fall of Lehman Brothers triggered the biggest financial crisis and stock-market plunge since the crash of 1929, I participated in a panel discussion of political… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 3, 2015
National Politics Jeb Bush's Headwinds The race for next year's Republican presidential nomination is going to be fascinating on so many levels, but none more than the challenges facing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. On the one hand, more… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 20, 2015
National Politics The Outrage Dilemma Americans by our nature are easily given to outrage, anxious to stop invaders as well as to avenge atrocities. Standing idly on the sidelines is not our way. Recent barbaric acts committed by Islamic… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 17, 2015
National Politics A Tough Path to the Presidency There's an old joke that each morning, every U.S. senator looks in the mirror and sees a future president. From the time I moved to Washington, in 1972, through 2012, 46 sitting senators ran for… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 12, 2015
National Politics The Front-Runner’s Peril While the fight for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination looks like it will be a wild roller-coaster ride, the Democratic contest, at least today, looks like a pretty boring affair. History… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 10, 2015
National Politics Romney Exit Opens the Field The political world has been abuzz for the past four days about Mitt Romney's announcement that he would not seek the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. The decision by the 2012 GOP nominee and… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 6, 2015
National Politics When Trends Collide The Gallup Organization's tracking poll released this past Monday was the second national survey this month to put President Obama's job approval rating at 50 percent. It was the first time since… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook February 3, 2015
National Politics The GOP Bracket Challenge Those who avidly follow politics always seek clarity and understanding, simply to figure out what is likely to happen. At this point, at least on the Republican side, we're all going to have to… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 29, 2015
National Politics The GOP After Obama While the 2016 presidential contest is starting to consume the attention of the political world, another immediate concern for the Republican Party ought to be what the party will stand for in the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 27, 2015
National Politics Bush, Clinton and the Fatigue Factor There are some surprising events that warrant being taken very seriously; others, well, not so much. Prior to Thanksgiving, it looked pretty unlikely that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would actually… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 14, 2015
National Politics A Wave—but No Tsunami Go ahead and call it a wave. Heading into Election Day at The Cook Political Report, we expected a Republican gain of five to seven Senate seats and noted it was more likely to be on the higher end… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 11, 2014
National Politics Democrats Paved the Way for Their Own Decline Much has been said about the long-term demographic challenges facing the Republican Party. Given how dismally Republicans fare with African-American voters—Mitt Romney and congressional Republicans… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 5, 2014
National Politics Swing Voters Hold Key to Immigration Debate The winner of a political argument is often determined by two things: timing and framing. In the case of immigration reform—at least the specific battle over President Obama's executive order last… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 1, 2014
National Politics Are We Ready for Hillary? Some time in the next six months, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is expected to decide whether to seek the presidency in 2016. But how will she do if she decides to run? In 2008, the… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 21, 2014
National Politics The Importance of Running Scared There's an old saying that there are only two ways for an incumbent to run: scared or unopposed. Many incumbents raise money almost continuously—call it paranoid or just cautious—as if a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 18, 2014
National Politics Bad Decisions Came Back to Haunt Democrats in Midterms Democrats are now sifting through the rubble of what was their party on election night, examining losses—and even near losses—that seemed fairly inconceivable just a couple of weeks ago. Such… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 14, 2014
National Politics How Big a Night Will It Be for the GOP? This article appears in the November 4, 2014 edition of NJ Daily. The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook November 3, 2014
National Politics Three Key Questions Will Determine What Direction Election Winds Are Blowing The political environment usually is "set" in midterm elections around midsummer. At that point, it's generally easy to see which direction the partisan winds are blowing, and one usually has an idea… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 31, 2014
National Politics Questions and Possible Answers After the obvious "Who's going to control the Senate after this midterm election?" question, several more questions come up in most political conversations these days. One recurring inquiry focuses… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 28, 2014
National Politics Kansas and Georgia Change the Equation on Senate-Majority Math The prospects remain very tough for Democrats to hold onto their majority in the Senate, but there is a new scenario emerging—albeit still unlikely—that is turning the majority math a bit on its head… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 24, 2014
National Politics The Trench Warfare Begins With just a little more than two weeks to go before the midterm election, Democrats are increasingly in need of a break or two to salvage their Senate majority. In my National Journal Daily column a… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook October 21, 2014
National Politics The End of an Era in Congress The ac­col­ades in hon­or of Rep. John Din­gell, who re­cently an­nounced his re­tire­ment, have been both deaf­en­ing and en­tirely de­served. In Con­gress’s his­tory, one could prob­ably count on… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook March 6, 2014
National Politics My Evolution on Gay Rights As re­cently as a dec­ade ago, the mar­riage-equal­ity move­ment looked like a long, tough slog. Today, about 55 per­cent of Amer­ic­ans sup­port same-sex mar­riage; it is now leg­al in 17 states,… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook January 23, 2014
National Politics Trian Run An oft-asked question these days is just how the Republican takeover of the Senate—and the GOP's now-complete occupation of Capitol Hill—will affect the 2016 presidential election. More specifically… Charlie Cook New Charlie Cook December 1, 2012