While we have long maintained that this year's presidential general election contest would get very close, we are now seeing signs that the battles for control of the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate are likewise growing much more competitive than they appeared just a few months ago. Indeed, we now believe that this will be the first election in at least two generations in which partisan control of both the House and the White House will be very much in doubt. In 1980, the Senate and the White House were both in play, and ultimately switched hands. One key difference, of course, is that the presidency is at some risk for Democrats, while the House is in jeopardy for Republicans, as opposed to having one party defend both bodies.
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