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National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 21, 2017

Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates say the path is down the middle, nominating pragmatists whom swing voters won’t find threatening. Still others suggest that Democrats nominate veterans, women, and other nonpoliticians who can tap...

Utah House|By David Wasserman, July 21, 2017

Believe it or not, Georgia's 6th CD wasn't the final special election of 2017. Utah Republican Jason Chaffetz's resignation from the House to become a Fox News commentator has spawned a spirited GOP three-way primary to succeed him on August 15. And although this is the 16th most Republican and likely the most heavily Mormon district in the country, the final general election margin on November...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, July 18, 2017

With the collapse – for now – of GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare, there’s plenty of blame to go around. But, there are also important lessons to take about why it failed and what it may mean for Republicans in the 2018 midterms.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 18, 2017

Earlier this week, a friend who leans decidedly Democratic was euphoric over news reports that one of the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, met last June with a Russian lawyer after Trump Jr. was told that she had damaging information about Hillary Clinton that was gathered by the Russian government....

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 14, 2017

Start­ing Tues­day, the House is in ses­sion 13 days and the Sen­ate 14 be­fore the Au­gust re­cess be­gins. As con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans face their long list of to-do items, one thing will weigh heav­ily on their minds: What will they tell their base if they don’t re­peal and re­place Obama­care, pass a sig­ni­fic­ant tax cut or tax re­form, ap­prove a ma­jor in­fra­struc­ture bill, or...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, July 12, 2017

By now, we know that Republicans in the Senate are having a tough time coming to agreement on a health care bill. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell took the drastic step this week of cancelling at least the first two weeks of the August recess to round up the 50 votes he needs to pass a bill.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, July 11, 2017

In this era of deep polarization and distrust, it seems as if Americans are incapable of agreeing with each other on anything or anyone. But, is it really as bad as it looks? Are we so divided that we can’t even agree on basic assumptions about American democracy?

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, July 11, 2017

After last month’s losses in the Geor­gia 6th Dis­trict and South Car­o­lina 5th Dis­trict races, a nar­rat­ive took hold on why the Demo­crat­ic Party had whiffed in all four com­pet­it­ive spe­cial elec­tions this year—it had no mes­sage, it had no lead­er­ship, and its most vis­ible rep­res­ent­at­ive, House Minor­ity Lead­er Nancy Pelosi, had be­come a li­ab­il­ity. Bot­tom line: Demo­crats...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, July 7, 2017

This is a tricky point in the election cycle to begin making predictions. On one hand, the danger signs are everywhere for the GOP: President Trump's approval is mired in the high 30s, and support for the AHCA's legislation is stuck in the high teens, and Democrats have been significantly over-performing - despite falling short - in a broad array of special elections. They also lead most...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Tennessee  |  Governor  |  Haslam (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Kansas  |  Governor  |  Brownback (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Illinois  |  Governor  |  Rauner (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New Mexico  |  Governor  |  Martinez (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New Jersey  |  Governor  |  Christie (R)

Likely D
Lean D

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Charlie Cook's Column

Authenticity Is Key to Democratic Chances

July 21, 2017

Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates say the path is down the middle, nominating pragmatists whom swing voters won’t find threatening. Still others suggest that Democrats nominate veterans, women, and other nonpoliticians who can tap...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

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