Given the prevailing anger at Washington and career politicians, it shouldn’t be a surprise that voters increasingly see experience as overrated. An opinion poll conducted nationwide by the Pew Research Center from September 22 to 27, and just released, found that only 37 percent of registered voters put greater value on “experience and a proven record,” down from 50 percent in March. The share...
As the House of Representatives endures one of its most disruptive transitions in the past century, two fundamental points remain valid. Despite obstacles such as legislative and partisan gamesmanship, polarization, redistricting and personal eccentricities, the House is a vibrant institution where 435 often free-spirited individuals are elected every two years. And the power of 218 typically...
Up until two weeks ago, the drama and larger-than-life personalities of the 2016 presidential race rendered the House an afterthought. It took a looming government funding/debt ceiling showdown and Speaker John Boehner's resignation to bring the chaos within the House GOP to the foreground, and the ongoing struggle reflects the larger, complex identity crisis within the party as a whole.
The argument for drawing oddly shaped lines on the map in order to create districts in which a racial minority constitutes a majority of voters—so-called “majority-minority” districts—has always been that racial gerrymandering is a necessary evil. It’s evil that voters won’t support candidates of a different race. But it’s necessary because this is the only way to ensure that minority...
In a sit-down interview with the Washington Post, Donald Trump all but admitted that his bombastic, shoot from the lip campaign was running out of steam and he needs a second act. The polls (of which we know he is quite enamored) are showing the same thing. At best he's plateaued. In some places he's dropped. More important, his negatives among non-Republicans are sky-high and he's losing to...
For all the talk about the strength of Hillary Clinton’s coalition against Sanders, it’s not much different from the one she put together in 2008. The one (and very important) exception is her strength today among African-American voters. Just take a look at the how well Clinton is polling in North Carolina among African-Americans today versus how she poorly she did with these voters in 2008....
At this stage in the 2016 presidential race, experienced paid-media data scientists remain scarce and sought after, but communications is where it's at. We're now into October and the case remains that the candidates performing the strongest in either Iowa, New Hampshire, or both first-in-the-nation states have done little to no television advertising at all.
One of my favorite work-related pastimes is to comb through public opinion polls. Like a miner panning for gold nuggets, I’m searching for a new insight or something that illustrates a point more clearly. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, conducted jointly by Fred Yang of the Democratic polling firm of Hart Research and Republican Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, is one of my...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 247 Republicans and 188 Democrats. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-10 seat range..
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Experience? Fuhgeddaboudit!October 13, 2015
Given the prevailing anger at Washington and career politicians, it shouldn’t be a surprise that voters increasingly see experience as overrated. An opinion poll conducted nationwide by the Pew Research Center from September 22 to 27, and just released, found that only 37 percent of registered voters put greater value on “experience and a proven record,” down from 50 percent in March. The share...Read more »
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