Yesterday’s binding decision to leave the European Union was the second in what seems likely to be five votes (and possibly six) during the next couple years—none of which would be imaginable in American political system.
Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes to spending that cash, her campaign may be making a strategic miscalculation. The campaign and an allied super PAC have reserved $137 million of ads across eight states.
There’s no doubt that Donald J. Trump has had a bad few weeks. His party remains split over his nomination. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign has less money in the bank than some state Senate candidates.
Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio has reversed his decision to retire from the Senate at the end of this Congress and will run for a second term. In doing so, he has breathed new life into the GOP's chances of holding the seat, but that doesn't mean that he has become anything more than the very slightest of favorites in November. The race will remain in the Toss Up column.
Right now, most bettors foresee nine words that are the stuff of Republicans’ 2017 nightmares: “President Hillary Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.” But at least the House is safe for the GOP. It is, right?
This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 17, 2016.
A proud disclaimer: Timothy S. Huebner, the author of Liberty and Union: The Civil War and American Constitutionalism, is my friend and colleague. One reason is that he writes and thinks so deeply and well about how history illuminates the present. In February Huebner’s op-ed in the New York Times shed needed light on the question of what historically has happened when a Supreme Court...
This morning, Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly announced he is dropping his Senate bid to run for reelection to the House in FL-13, giving Republicans a credible path against former Gov. Charlie Crist, who will be the Democratic nominee. But he is still the underdog: a new court-ordered map unites St. Petersburg, making FL-13 four points more Democratic than it was in 2014. As a result, Crist is...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Trump Needs a Trick of Fates to WinJune 24, 2016
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »