ALABAMA: On February 9, Republican Gov. Robert Bentley appointed then-state Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the seat vacated by U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions who resigned to become Attorney General, and announced that a special election to fulfill the remainder of Sessions’ term would be held in November of next year. Although Bentley instituted a formal process to pick Sessions’...
President Trump’s private warning that 2018 could be a “bloodbath” if Republicans don’t make good on his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act may sound like hyperbole, but Republicans thinking of crossing him shouldn’t laugh it off. Just ask Rep. Martha Roby.
More than a few House Republicans are likely to be taking deep breaths as they board the subway from the Longworth or Rayburn House Office Buildings to the Capitol on Thursday to vote on the American Health Care Act. They know that they will be casting a fateful vote on a bill that no one really likes and, given the lack of affection for it in the Senate, one that is...
Last November, just a couple weeks after Donald Trump’s surprising victory and Democrats less-than-impressive showing in House races, Democrats re-elected Nancy Pelosi as their leader – a post she has held since 2003. While there was a significant bloc of “no” votes – the most ever cast against her – she easily dispatched Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio with two-thirds of the caucus vote. A number of...
The backlash that Republicans are experiencing on their proposed American Health Care Act is very real and should be worrisome to the GOP. But the fallout from President Trump’s proposed budget cuts could cause even greater reverberations. Waste, fraud, and abuse clearly exist in government spending. But it’s also true that most spending programs exist because a...
There are three distinctive seasons in the biannual election cycle. The first is to figure out what happened in the last election and why. The second is to recruit the strongest candidates you can find. The third is the campaign itself. The Republican National Committee’s autopsy of the 2012 election, under the direction of then-party chairman Reince Priebus, was...
The departures of five members for various cabinet and state-level positions has spawned a packed season of House special elections between April and June. Budget and health care fights could turn these contests into message testing opportunities for parties and groups, but most are taking place in safe seats.
In many ways, the challenge facing Republicans in enacting their American Health Care Act looks pretty close to insurmountable. The most conservative members of the House Republican Conference, as well as allied groups such as the Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, the Heritage Foundation, and Breitbart News, are deriding it as “Obamacare Lite” and a betrayal of...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Republicans Weigh Their RyanCare VotesMarch 23, 2017
More than a few House Republicans are likely to be taking deep breaths as they board the subway from the Longworth or Rayburn House Office Buildings to the Capitol on Thursday to vote on the American Health Care Act. They know that they will be casting a fateful vote on a bill that no one really likes and, given the lack of affection for it in the Senate, one that is...Read more »
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »