Between the presidential contest and the battle for control of the U.S. Senate, the 12 gubernatorial races are getting very little attention, despite the fact that six of them sit in the Toss Up column today.
It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t. Donald Trump’s share of the vote hasn’t plummeted, but his numbers among undecided voters—the crucial swing voters who are not part of his base—have become toxic. He has doubled down on keeping his base intact, making it difficult if not impossible to expand his...
Paul Landow teaches political science at the University of Nebraska Omaha. A former chief of staff to Omaha’s mayor, he is writing a book about the connections between public employees unions, city government, and elected officials.
With less than three weeks to go in election 2016 it is clear that Trump has abandoned any precept of fighting for persuadable voters. Instead, as he showed in every debate including the third and final one last night, Trump is all about stoking and stroking his base. Polling since the first debate has shown an unmistakable pattern - Clinton has been climbing and Trump has been falling - even...
Three weeks out, the House landscape has bifurcated: in well-educated suburban districts, Donald Trump's atrocious numbers - especially with women - means GOP candidates are fighting his toxicity as much as they are fighting their Democratic opponents. This is still true for several strong, well-funded incumbents who have disavowed the nominee, such as GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock (VA-10), who...
Merrick Garland, President Barack Obama’s nominee to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, has, since July 20, held the record for waiting longer than any other Supreme Court nominee in U.S. history to get a Senate hearing on his nomination. Republicans who have blocked such a hearing have long contended that the choice of a justice to replace Scalia should...
With just about three weeks to go until this campaign is put out of its misery, we find Donald Trump impossibly behind and the Hillary Clinton campaign and her allies pushing to expand the map. The question isn’t whether Clinton wins, it’s now a question of by how much. The bigger the margin, the better the odds of Democrats down ballot success. While most Republican senators and many incumbent...
Andrew Rudalevige is the Thomas Brackett Reed professor of government at Bowdoin College in Brunswick, Maine. He is the author of award-winning books on the presidency, including Managing the President’s Program: Presidential Leadership and Legislative Policy Formulation.
What a difference a week makes. In the wake of the first presidential debate, Hillary Clinton looked to be pulling away in the presidential race, the fight over the Senate majority was an even-money bet, and Republican control of the House seemed to be a cinch. Today, the presidential race looks like a cakewalk for Clinton, the Republican Senate majority looks...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 186 Democrats and three vacancies. In 2014, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, and hope that linking Republican candidates to unpopular GOP nominee Donald Trump could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it remains very unlikely Democrats will net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with slightly larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Clinton Takes Command, But Senate Still a Toss-UpOctober 21, 2016
It’s getting increasingly difficult to characterize the presidential race as competitive. It really isn’t. Donald Trump’s share of the vote hasn’t plummeted, but his numbers among undecided voters—the crucial swing voters who are not part of his base—have become toxic. He has doubled down on keeping his base intact, making it difficult if not impossible to expand his...Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »
The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »