By now, most journalists and opinion elite understand enough about political media buying to know that super PACs and other non-candidate, non-party-what we at CMAG refer to as "outside"-groups often pay significantly more than candidates pay to advertise on TV. Certain laws, as well as just plain good business sense, ensure that candidates get access to the airwaves at relatively reasonable...
Over the weekend, New York GOP Rep. Richard Hanna announced he would not seek a fourth term in his swing seat covering Binghamton and Utica. Hanna, a wealthy construction businessman, is the most liberal Republican left in the House and his move comes not only as a boon to Democrats looking to pick up his seat but a setback for GOP leaders who count on his vote.
Slingshot: The Defeat of Eric Cantor tells a story. That alone makes it unusual for a work of political science. Even more unusual is the story of how the book came to be. Randolph-Macon College economics professor David Brat, still mad because he was denied the Republican nomination for a Virginia House of Delegates seat in 2011 in favor of a rich-kid protégé of Eric Cantor, decided to...
Believe it or not, there are more open seats than just the White House in 2016. As of today, there are 30 House members either retiring or running for higher office, as well as one vacancy. Of those 31 seats, 18 are currently held by Republicans. These numbers are fairly close to the historical average, and if the past is any indication, it's likely there will be around 40 open seats after all...
As we get older, some of us accumulate pet peeves. For me, this is one: when journalists write of an upcoming event as tantamount to a turning point in the history of civilization, or at least since the invention of sliced bread. In politics, many important events shape elections, and a succession of events big and small make up what we call the campaign. For some of the...
This week I look at Battle for the Big Sky: Representation and the Politics of Place in the Race for the U.S. Senate by Montana State University’s David C.W. Parker. It’s set in Montana and covers Jon Tester's 2012 victory. Parker skillfully treats one contest as a microcosm of congressional elections in general. The book has this theme: not just “fundamentals’ like presidential...
If you were looking for the fifth GOP debate of this topsy-turvy 2015 to upend or reshuffle this race, you came away sorely disappointed. Instead, this foreign policy focused forum merely solidified the standings of Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz as the top three candidates in the GOP contest. The debate was not without some surprises. The normally bellicose Trump remained relatively...
More money has been spent on television advertising in this nascent presidential race than has ever been spent by this point before. And yet for many candidates, the rising tide isn't lifting their boats. Jeb Bush is the glaring example: $35 million spent on TV ads on his behalf as of December 14 and poll standings in single digits. But one analyst for another campaign who has been tracking ad...
Being successful in politics depends on meeting voters where they are, not where you think they are or, where you think they should be. It’s about recognizing the political environment and working with it, not against it.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-10 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
As we get older, some of us accumulate pet peeves. For me, this is one: when journalists write of an upcoming event as tantamount to a turning point in the history of civilization, or at least since the invention of sliced bread. In politics, many important events shape elections, and a succession of events big and small make up what we call the campaign. For some of the...
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In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2014 election.
Download »Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.
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