The Cook Political Report | The insider's choice for election analysis

Dissecting the DCCC's "Red to Blue" Districts

January 26, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at Democrats' newly rolled out list of 36 initial target districts, promoted to donors and press as "Red to Blue." At the outset of the election year, Democrats' math is very difficult, but not impossible. Democrats, who stand at 193 seats now, are likely to lose between 10 and 15 adversely redistricted incumbents and three to five open seats. That means they probably need to win between 35 to 45 newly created and GOP-held seats for a majority. Democrats' list of 36 includes many very promising candidates with diverse resumes and distinct appeal in their districts. But Democrats know they'll need to lengthen the list to have a shot. House Democrats have enjoyed a pretty strong start to the year. Fresh off the House GOP's payroll tax setback, Democrats are confident they will be able to effectively link more vulnerable Republicans to the Tea Party, even if the overwhelming majority of GOP freshmen are far from card-carrying members. President Obama's uptick amid the rancorous GOP nomination race lifts a little bit of the burden off many Democrats, and state Sen. Suzanne Bonamici appears poised to win a special election in Oregon's 1st CD. Now, Democrats' task will be to transform these "green shoots" into more momentum and money for their candidates.
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Michigan Senate: A Potentially Vulnerable Incumbent

January 26, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: When we first wrote about this race last April, Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow was showing some signs of vulnerability. Her job approval numbers were upside down and she hovered at or below the 50-percent mark in hypothetical general election match ups. Michigan’s economy was still stuck in its long economic downturn. Working in Stabenow’s favor, though, was that Republicans didn’t have a first-tier candidate to challenge her. Many of the likely suspects, including former Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land and the Republican members of the U.S. House delegation, had all taken passes on the race. Fast forward nine months, and the race looks different today. Stabenow’s poll numbers haven’t seen any meaningful improvement and the state’s economy hasn’t made meaningful progress toward recovery (the unemployment rate was 9.3 percent in December). Now, though, Republicans have two candidates who can give the incumbent a competitive race in November. As a result, the race is moving to the Lean Democratic column.
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Giffords' Resignation Leaves Big Question Mark in AZ-08

January 26, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman writes: Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords' moving farewell from Congress to focus on her recovery makes any contemplation of the political fallout from her resignation feel a world away. While it's premature to put a hard and fast rating on this traditionally middle-of-the-road Tucson seat (now renumbered as AZ-02 in our database), we are adding the vacancy to the Toss Up column as a parking place, until the field of candidates shapes up over the next month. What we do know is that Arizona Gov. Jan Brewer must schedule a special primary for April and a special general election for June.
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Fallout from Lewis, Gallegly and Hinchey Retirements

January 19, 2012
House Editor David Wasserman examines the recent spate of five House retirements in the last two weeks. There are now 31 incumbents (18 Democrats and 13 Republicans) who have announced they will not seek reelection to their seats. A look back at our archived House Summary charts shows that's the most at this point in an election cycle since 1996, the last year following a GOP House takeover. Of particular significance, the retirements of GOP Reps. Jerry Lewis (CA-08) and Elton Gallegly (CA-26) and Democratic Rep. Maurice Hinchey (NY-22) add important new pieces to very complex redistricting puzzles.
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Senate: Four Epic Battles that Could Determine the Majority

January 12, 2012
Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy writes: There are many paths that could net Republicans the four seats they need to win the Senate majority next November. There are even a few routes that could allow Democrats to keep a tenuous hold on control of the chamber. Any of these paths, though, will likely involve four races: Massachusetts, Montana, Nevada, and Virginia. Each of these contests will be epic battles that will remain very close until Election Day and all will shatter records for spending on a U.S. Senate race in their respective states.
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Georgia: New District Baselines

January 12, 2012
In early September, GOP Gov. Nathan Deal took pleasure in signing a map that creates a new heavily conservative district in his home base of North Georgia. GOP state Rep. Doug Collins and conservative talk radio host Martha Zoller will be competing for this new 9th CD (GOP Rep. Tom Graves will run for the renumbered northwest Georgia 14th CD). The new map also seriously shores up GOP freshman Rep. Austin Scott in the South Georgia 8th CD. But next November, all eyes will be on the Augusta-based 12th CD, where Republicans went out of their way to endanger Democratic Rep. John Barrow.
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