North Carolina's 2014 House races will probably attract the most attention for 2003 American Idol runner-up Clay Aiken's uphill run against GOP Rep. Renee Ellmers in the 2nd CD. But the most competitive races will be in the May primaries for Republicans in the open 6th and 7th CDs, and for Democrats in the vacant 12th CD. With Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre's retirement in the 7th CD,...
In Charlie's latest National Journal Daily column, he sees no good news these days for Congressional Democrats. Not only is a House majority seemingly out of reach for the party in November, but their hold on the Senate seems to be increasingly tenuous.Read it here on NationalJournal.comMore Columns »
When it comes to 2016, the media is fixated on Bridge-gate, Benghazi, and Bush (Jeb). Left out of the picture is the man that many assumed would be the frontrunner by now, Sen. Marco Rubio. The CW says that Rubio's star has been dimmed (perhaps irreversibly so) by his championing of comprehensive immigration reform in 2013. That way of thinking assumes that Rubio--and this issue--will remain...
Listening the other day to discouraging economic forecasts from Alan Greenspan and Larry Summers, I was reminded of the many polls showing that Americans worry their children won't have the same opportunities they did. To be clear, neither the former Fed chairman nor the former Treasury secretary was predicting recessions or even downturns. But there was little in their words to the National...
Advertising may not be on the agenda as the nation’s health insurers gather in DC for their annual policy conference, but advertising offers a window on their complex relationship with the Affordable Care Act. The ads tell the story of an industry—and specifically, its biggest players—triangulating their way through a reform ramp-up that has been...
It never ceases to amaze us how quickly an incumbent’s electoral fortunes can change. This cycle’s example might be first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Udall. For months, it appeared that Udall would face a challenger who was either damaged by a past campaign or one who was relatively unknown. Outside groups have not expressed any interest in the race. Even Udall himself has been running at a...
As DC journalists and ads inundate St. Petersburg for the final stretch of the March 11 special election between Democrat Alex Sink and Republican David Jolly, numbers are flying everywhere. According to the Tampa Bay Times's Alex Leary, total spending has hit $8.2 million, with Sink and Democrats leading Jolly and Republicans $4.6 to $3.6 million, including a new $350,000 ad buy from the...
Every once in a while, a political canard is exposed—something that once may have been generally accepted and perhaps true, but has remained a part of the conventional wisdom. Such is the case with the view that any kind of normalization of relations with Cuba is a political third rail; that is to say, if you touch it, you die (or get defeated). In the Cold War era, particularly in the 1960s...
Cook Political Report subscribers can keep up to date with the latest totals of vacancies, open seats, and potentially open seats in the U.S. House with our House Summary chart, updated with the latest information on Members' retirements and resignations throughout the election cycle.
The 2014 Political Environment
Updated March 6, 2014 | As the 2014 midterm election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.
- Right Direction/Wrong Track Polling
- Presidential Job Approval Ratings
- Consumer Confidence/Consumer Sentiment
- ACA/Obamacare: Public Approval
- Party Affiliation
- Democratic/Republican Party Favorability Ratings
- The Generic Congressional Ballot Test
Also: "What It Takes:" 2014 House and Senate MathRead full report »
The current Senate line-up is 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and two independents that caucus with Democrats. There are 36 Senate races on the ballot in 2014. To win the majority, Republicans would have to score a net gain of six seats. Democrats are defending 21 of these seats, including six in states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012, and two more that are in swing states. By contrast, Republicans will defend 15 seats, only one of which is in a state that President Obama carried in 2012. These numbers would suggest that Republicans should be in a position to gain seats this cycle. At this early stage, the odds of Democrats losing seats are far greater than the odds of them gaining seats.
The current House breakdown is 232 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and four vacancies (two Republican and two Democratic). Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to reach a majority in 2014. Because the House is well sorted-out, large shifts or a change in partisan control of the House are unlikely. In large part because of President Obama's standing and the GOP's midterm turnout advantages, we would estimate a Republican gain of between zero and 10 House seats if the election were held today.
The current line up of the nation’s Governors is 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats. There are 36 contests in 2014. Of these 36 races, 22 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. Republicans have far more exposure to losses. Of the GOP’s 22 seats, President Obama easily carried seven of these states in 2012, while another three seats are in swing states. Only one of Democrats’ 14 seats is in a state that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried. At this point in the cycle, it appears that Republicans are more likely to lose seats than gain them.
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- The bible of the political community.
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- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
Democratic Demise?March 6, 2014
In Charlie's latest National Journal Daily column, he sees no good news these days for Congressional Democrats. Not only is a House majority seemingly out of reach for the party in November, but their hold on the Senate seems to be increasingly tenuous.Read it here on NationalJournal.comMore Columns »Read more »
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Amy Walter, National Editor
Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor
The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
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