With a one-two punch, Ted Cruz effectively launched his candidacy for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. On Wednesday night, the senator from Texas took to the stage and urged party members not to stay home in November but to “stand and speak and vote your conscience,” a veiled suggestion that his own conscience would not allow him to vote for Donald Trump....
Like a swimmer caught in a rip-tide, I need to stop fighting this election and start going with it. I have spent most of this year trying to explain why things aren’t working out the way they are “supposed” to work. Instead, I need to appreciate the fluid and unprecedented nature of this election. This doesn’t mean that I throw out all I know and have learned over the years about campaign and...
The chaos inside Quicken Loans Arena - from a quashed delegate rebellion to Melania Trump's recycled words and Ted Cruz's saboteur turn - have dominated coverage of Cleveland this week. But outside the arena, the RNC's vibe felt eerie for what the city seemed to be missing: large, boisterous protests, crowded bars and restaurants, and GOP candidates in competitive House races - most of whom...
Democrats want to put as many Republican-held seats in play as possible. In a best case scenario it puts them in a strong position if a wave develops in the fall. At the very least, they hope it forces Republicans to devote resources to more races, spreading them thin.
The Republican National Convention is now underway, with the critical question being whether it can reconfigure a race that looks close in some polls but is really an uphill climb for Donald Trump. There’s no question that the Democratic Party is not in particularly good standing right now, with a very large swath of the electorate either disliking or distrusting Hillary Clinton, but the GOP...
Tragedy strikes again, this time in the south of France. The bloodshed in Nice was just as horrific as the assaults in Paris last November that killed 130. The Nice attack was spread over a much larger area
Donald Trump's decision to tap Indiana Republican Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate means that Republicans are going to have to find a new gubernatorial nominee. Pence is prohibited from running for both offices, and he had until noon today to withdraw from the Governor's race.
Omaha, Nebraska is 1,665 miles from Bangor, Maine. Culturally, they're worlds apart: white-collar Omaha is becoming more cosmopolitan while northern Maine is well-known for its blue-collar independent streak. But they could also be the story of the 2016 election in a nutshell.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
In the End, Cruz was True to HimselfJuly 26, 2016
With a one-two punch, Ted Cruz effectively launched his candidacy for the 2020 Republican presidential nomination. On Wednesday night, the senator from Texas took to the stage and urged party members not to stay home in November but to “stand and speak and vote your conscience,” a veiled suggestion that his own conscience would not allow him to vote for Donald Trump....Read more »
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »
The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »