How successful will Democrats be in convincing potential recruits that a ballot led by Hillary Clinton in 2016 presents their best opportunity for a promotion? Given their historic low point and difficult map, can Democrats compete in seats that gave President Obama between 45 and 50 percent of the vote?
As discouraging as the partisanship, polarization, and dysfunction are in Washington these days, I confess to being really excited by the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign. Not that there is another George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan on the immediate horizon, but this race appears to have some really interesting aspects to it.
Americans are feeling better about the economy today than they have in years. For the first time since early 2013, more Americans approve of the job Obama's doing on the economy (48 percent) than disapprove (47 percent). That's good news for Hillary Clinton and Democrats heading into 2016. Yet, Americans remain pretty pessimistic about the overall state of the economy as well as their own...
State Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's decision to seek the Republican presidential nomination and thus forego a re-election bid creates the second open GOP seat of the cycle. It also becomes the first Republican seat in the Toss Up column. Had Rubio run for re-election, he would have started the race as the favorite, but an open seat in a swing state in a presidential year will be a much more...
Now that the 2016 presidential race has begun in earnest, many hopefuls for House seats will struggle for attention and money, particularly considering the chamber has mostly become a foregone conclusion. Republicans have achieved their largest majority in 86 years, and now it's up to Democrats to prove that they aren't simply done for the decade.
This afternoon, Santa Barbara Democratic Rep. Lois Capps announced she would retire at the end of her current term. This isn't a surprise, as her daughter, Democratic communications strategist Laura Capps, recently moved back to Santa Barbara and has been widely expected to seek her mother's seat. Lois Capps first won this seat in a 1998 special election following the death of her husband, Rep....
Since Barack Obama’s win in 2008, phrases like “Demographic Destiny” and “Blue Wall” have become part of the justification for Democrats slight edge in winning the White House in 2016. Demographic destiny, of course, refers to Democrats’ success in winning over the fast-growing minority population, as well as women and the millennial generation, while the “Blue Wall” refers to the 242 Electoral...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 245 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with two vacancies. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, and if they win upcoming special elections in New York's 11th CD and Mississippi's 1st CD, they will win their largest number of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, winning the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
For 2016, the Parties Are Trading PlacesApril 17, 2015
As discouraging as the partisanship, polarization, and dysfunction are in Washington these days, I confess to being really excited by the unfolding 2016 presidential campaign. Not that there is another George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Abraham Lincoln, Franklin Roosevelt, or Ronald Reagan on the immediate horizon, but this race appears to have some really interesting aspects to it.Read more »
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