Jump to Any Race
Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, September 23, 2016

U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ success in popularizing a progressive agenda during the Democratic presidential primary has given the progressive movement some momentum. Progressives in the Senate seem especially emboldened, which begs the question of how substantial and influential will this bloc be if Democrats win the majority in November?

California House|By David Wasserman, September 23, 2016

Republicans haven't gained a House seat in California since 1998, and Santa Barbara and the Central Coast aren't exactly Donald Trump bastions. But a new poll conducted by the Tarrance Group for GOP nominee Justin Fareed's campaign shows him leading Democratic Santa Barbara Supervisor Salud Carbajal 46 percent to 43 percent in the race for retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps's open seat, and...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 23, 2016

If you fo­cus on the na­tion­al pres­id­en­tial horse-race polls, Hil­lary Clin­ton has a sliv­er of a lead over Don­ald Trump—by nine-tenths of a point in the Real­Clear­Polit­ics.com av­er­age of ma­jor na­tion­al polls in the two-way tri­al heat, 44.9 to 44 per­cent; by sev­en-tenths of a point in the four-way heat, 41 to 40.3 per­cent, with Liber­tari­an Gary John­son third at 8.6 per­cent...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, September 23, 2016

The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly there...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, September 22, 2016

This is it. The final sprint to the November election has begun. But, even with just a couple months to go, there are still some questions yet to be answered that will have a big impact on the final vote.

Debates|By Michael Nelson, September 22, 2016

The first Trump-Clinton debate will take place this Monday night, September 26, with the Kaine-Pence debate eight days later on October 4, and the remaining two presidential debates scheduled for October 9 (the town hall), and October 19.

Polling|By Ashton Barry, September 20, 2016

This document, compiled by Cook Political staff, contains statewide polling data, in combination with the RealClearPolitics (4-way) running average in battleground states. The percentage of votes listed under Romney and Obama are pulled directly from the FEC Election Results publication.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, September 20, 2016

Polls com­ing out every day make it clear that this pres­id­en­tial race has got­ten very close. Na­tion­al sur­veys put it some­where between a tie and a lead of about 2 points for Hil­lary Clin­ton over Don­ald Trump. This is a far cry from the lead of about 8 points that Clin­ton had last month, al­though that gap was prob­ably un­sus­tain­able.

BATTLEGROUND STATES|By Michael Nelson, September 19, 2016

John C. Green is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science. He is also a Senior Fellow with the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life. He is co-author of The Bully Pulpit: The Politics of Protestant Clergy, among other books, and directs the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics, dedicated to the nuts and bolts of practical politics.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 247 Republicans, 186 Democrats and two vacancies. In 2014, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, and hope that linking Republican candidates to unpopular GOP nominee Donald Trump could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it remains very unlikely Democrats will net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-20 seats, with slightly larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

California  |  District 24  |  Capps (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 25  |  Slaughter (D)

Solid D
Likely D

New Hampshire  |  District 01  |  Guinta (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Lean D
Toss Up

Wisconsin  |  Senate  |  Johnson (R)

Lean D
Toss Up

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Clinton’s Up, But Hedge Your Bet

September 23, 2016

If you fo­cus on the na­tion­al pres­id­en­tial horse-race polls, Hil­lary Clin­ton has a sliv­er of a lead over Don­ald Trump—by nine-tenths of a point in the Real­Clear­Polit­ics.com av­er­age of ma­jor na­tion­al polls in the two-way tri­al heat, 44.9 to 44 per­cent; by sev­en-tenths of a point in the four-way heat, 41 to 40.3 per­cent, with Liber­tari­an Gary John­son third at 8.6 per­cent...

Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »

Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
View Columns »

Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
View Columns »

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
See Chart »
Read More »

The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

Download »

The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

Read full report »

Sign Up