Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates say the path is down the middle, nominating pragmatists whom swing voters won’t find threatening. Still others suggest that Democrats nominate veterans, women, and other nonpoliticians who can tap...
Believe it or not, Georgia's 6th CD wasn't the final special election of 2017. Utah Republican Jason Chaffetz's resignation from the House to become a Fox News commentator has spawned a spirited GOP three-way primary to succeed him on August 15. And although this is the 16th most Republican and likely the most heavily Mormon district in the country, the final general election margin on November...
With the collapse – for now – of GOP efforts to repeal Obamacare, there’s plenty of blame to go around. But, there are also important lessons to take about why it failed and what it may mean for Republicans in the 2018 midterms.
Earlier this week, a friend who leans decidedly Democratic was euphoric over news reports that one of the president’s sons, Donald Trump Jr., along with his son-in-law Jared Kushner and then-Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, met last June with a Russian lawyer after Trump Jr. was told that she had damaging information about Hillary Clinton that was gathered by the Russian government....
Starting Tuesday, the House is in session 13 days and the Senate 14 before the August recess begins. As congressional Republicans face their long list of to-do items, one thing will weigh heavily on their minds: What will they tell their base if they don’t repeal and replace Obamacare, pass a significant tax cut or tax reform, approve a major infrastructure bill, or...
By now, we know that Republicans in the Senate are having a tough time coming to agreement on a health care bill. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell took the drastic step this week of cancelling at least the first two weeks of the August recess to round up the 50 votes he needs to pass a bill.
In this era of deep polarization and distrust, it seems as if Americans are incapable of agreeing with each other on anything or anyone. But, is it really as bad as it looks? Are we so divided that we can’t even agree on basic assumptions about American democracy?
After last month’s losses in the Georgia 6th District and South Carolina 5th District races, a narrative took hold on why the Democratic Party had whiffed in all four competitive special elections this year—it had no message, it had no leadership, and its most visible representative, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, had become a liability. Bottom line: Democrats...
This is a tricky point in the election cycle to begin making predictions. On one hand, the danger signs are everywhere for the GOP: President Trump's approval is mired in the high 30s, and support for the AHCA's legislation is stuck in the high teens, and Democrats have been significantly over-performing - despite falling short - in a broad array of special elections. They also lead most...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Authenticity Is Key to Democratic ChancesJuly 21, 2017
Some on the left say the Democrats’ path to a House majority next year is to nominate passionate liberals who can tap into the energy and excitement that Bernie Sanders generated last year. Moderates say the path is down the middle, nominating pragmatists whom swing voters won’t find threatening. Still others suggest that Democrats nominate veterans, women, and other nonpoliticians who can tap...Read more »
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »