If this month's special election in South Carolina's 1st District had all the ingredients to cook up a national spectacle, the June 4 election to fill GOP Rep. Jo Ann Emerson's vacant seat in southeast Missouri is a recipe for obscurity. As both parties survey what the trio of ongoing scandals in D.C. might mean for 2014, it's easy to forget that there's a House race in two weeks' time that m…
In Charlie's latest National Journal column, he describes the tendency of presidencies to run into trouble in their second terms, and considers how partisan outrage over the recent spate of scandals plaguing the Obama Administration may--or may not--end up being reflected in the President's approval ratings.
The latest Rhodes Cook Letter is now available to Cook Political Report subscribers. In this issue, Rhodes considers the notion of Democrats as the "presidential party" relative to Republicans which now represent today's "congressional party." Analysis of the current set of special elections to the U.S. House is also provided in a section entitled "A 'Special' Time."
The Cook Political Report's House Summary Chart, featured below, provides a complete rundown of all vacancies, retirements, open seats, and potentially open seats in the U.S. House, and is updated each week leading up to every election as the statuses of current incumbents change. Be sure to continue to check back as the 2014 election cycle develops to keep up with the latest news from the House.
It's not as if Democrats aren't already looking at a tough election in 2014. They have lots of red state Senate seats to defend and few obvious GOP targets in the House. They have to prepare for the likelihood of a rough and messy implementation of the health care law they supported. Now pile on the latest White House troubles--IRS investigation of conservative non-profit groups and the Departmen…
Last week we wrote that this special election contest between Democratic U.S. Rep. Ed Markey and Republican businessman Gabriel Gomez had gotten more interesting, but was not yet truly competitive. We may have spoken too soon. Yet another poll has come out showing the race in single digits. The OnMessage, Inc. (R) survey for the Gomez campaign (May 5-7 of 800 likely voters) gave Markey a t…
Democrats have had a rough few days in South Dakota. Although U.S. Attorney Brendan Johnson, son of retiring Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson, has not made a statement, the conventional wisdom is that he will not run for his father’s seat. And today, former U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin wrote in a post on her Facebook page that she would not be a candidate. Herseth Sandlin was a favorite of m…
Republican Mark Sanford’s victory Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District tells us only one thing about the 2014 midterm elections—that Democrats still need to capture 17 seats to win back the House majority they lost in 2010. Nothing more, nothing less. Had Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch won the special election, all it would have demonstrated was that even in such an overwhe…
For the past few months, the special election to fill the remainder of former Democratic Sen. John Kerry’s term has plodded along. It was as if the book on the race had already been written. U.S. Rep. Ed Markey would beat U.S. Rep. Steve Lynch for the Democratic nomination. He would then go on to defeat any of the trio of virtually unknown Republicans seeking the GOP nod in the June 25 special…
This was a close race (51.06% to 47.21%) but not that close; five post-World War II presidential races have been closer. Republicans have now lost the popular vote in five out of the last six elections. The 332 to 206 Electoral vote majority for Obama means that from 1992 on, no Republican has won 300 or more Electoral votes, and Democrats have won 300 or more in four out of the six. Democrats have now won 18 states (plus DC) in six consecutive elections, with a total of 242 Electoral votes, 89.6% of the 270 needed to win.
The current Senate line-up is 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and two independents that caucus with Democrats. There are 35 Senate races on the ballot in 2014. To win the majority, Republicans would have to score a net gain of six seats. Democrats are defending 21 of these seats, including six in states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012, and two more that are in swing states. By contrast, Republicans will defend 14 seats, only one of which is in a state that President Obama carried last year. These numbers would suggest that Republicans should be in a position to gain seats this cycle. However, the numbers also worked in Republicans’ favor last cycle and yet they lost two seats. At this early stage, the odds of Democrats losing seats are far greater than the odds of them gaining seats. At the same time, it is far too early to say that their majority is in danger, or that they will suffer significant losses.
After Democrats gained eight House seats in 2012, the new breakdown is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and three vacancies. Democrats need to gain 17 seats to reach a majority in 2014, but the House is well sorted-out and a net shift of more than five to ten seats in either direction is unlikely.
The current line up of the nation’s Governors is 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats and one independent. There are two races in 2013 – New Jersey and Virginia – and 36 contests in 2014. Of these 38 races, 24 are held by Republicans, 13 by Democrats and one by an independent. Republicans have far more exposure to losses. Of the GOP’s 24 seats, President Obama easily carried eight of these states in 2012, while another three seats are in swing states. Only one of Democrats’ 13 seats is in a state that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried. At this point in the cycle, it appears that Republicans are more likely to lose seats than gain them, but it is too early to predict a range of gains or losses for either party.
Republican Mark Sanford’s victory Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District tells us only one thing about the 2014 midterm elections—that Democrats still need to capture 17 seats to win back the House majority they lost in 2010. Nothing more, nothing less. Had Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch won the special election, all it would have demonstrated was that even in such an overwhe…
Read more »A breakdown of the Partisan Voter Index for every House district in the 113th Congress.
See chart »
These charts combining Kantar Media CMAG broadcast television and NCC Media local cable data show a TV ad mix heavy on broadcast news in the morning but local cable at night.
View charts »
The last issue of "The Rhodes Cook Letter" explored the idea that the Republicans are the "congressional party." This issue takes a look at the opposite - that the Democrats are the modern day "presidential party." The ongoing round of special congression
Download »
