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Illinois House|By David Wasserman, March 30, 2015

This morning, Illinois Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth announced she will challenge GOP Sen. Mark Kirk in 2016. Although Illinois's Senate race is likely to be highly competitive, Democrats are in very strong position to hold Duckworth's seat. In 2012, state Democrats redrew Duckworth's seat in the northwest Chicago suburbs to be heavily Democratic. The seat is now nearly majority non-white and...

Nevada Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, March 27, 2015

Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid announced this morning via email to supporters that he will not seek re-election next year. Despite some signs that he would be the most vulnerable Democrat on the ballot this cycle, Reid has insisted for months that he intended to seek another term. However, an accident in January that caused a serious eye injury caused Reid to reassess what would have been...

Note to Subscribers|March 27, 2015

On Wednesday, April 22 , from 8:30am to 11:00am ET , the Cook Political Report will host our first subscriber briefing of 2015.

California House|By David Wasserman, March 27, 2015

Could the Supreme Court help House Democrats hit the jackpot in California next year? The prospect of a Golden State mid-decade redistricting, dependent on the outcome of a much-watched Arizona case, makes Republicans nervous. However, an exhaustive mapping simulation reveals a Democratic gold rush of seats is extremely unlikely.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 27, 2015

The front-page headline in The Washington Post said it all: "Democrats in key states ask: Where is Hillary?" Putting aside the simple facts that the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are both 10 months away and that Hillary Clinton is not expected to officially enter the race before next month, this headline says so much more. In fact, it telegraphs the coming story line.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 25, 2015

Many are looking at the 2016 GOP primary in the same way they look at recent congressional GOP primaries: a contest between the Tea Party or very conservative forces versus the traditional conservative/establishment forces. At the House and Senate level, of course, the candidate who corralled the support of the Tea Party segment of the party has often been successful in toppling the...

Indiana Senate |By Jennifer Duffy, March 24, 2015

Republican Sen. Dan Coats of Indiana announced today that he will not seek a second term next year, creating the first open seat of the cycle for Republicans and only the third to date. Coats' decision was not entirely unexpected as rumors had been circulating for several months that he was thinking about retiring. The Republican bench in the state is pretty deep. Most of the seven GOP...

Florida House |By David Wasserman, March 23, 2015

This morning, sophomore Democratic Rep. Patrick Murphy (FL-18) announced he would run for Senate in 2016, giving Democrats a credible candidate for GOP Sen. Marco Rubio's seat. But Democrats will be hard pressed to keep his House seat along Florida's Treasure Coast. Murphy is one of just five remaining House Democrats in a district won by GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney; Romney took 52...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 20, 2015

The race for next year's Republican presidential nomination is going to be fascinating on so many levels, but none more than the challenges facing former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 245 Republicans and 188 Democrats, with two vacancies. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, and if they win upcoming special elections in New York's 11th CD and Mississippi's 1st CD, they will win their largest number of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, winning the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-15 seat range.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Nevada  |  Senate  |  Reid (D)

Lean D
Toss Up

Florida  |  District 18  |  Murphy (D)

Likely D
Toss Up

New York  |  District 19  |  Gibson (R)

Toss Up
Likely R

California  |  Senate  |  Boxer (D)

Solid D
Likely D

Louisiana  |  Senate  |  Landrieu (D)

Toss Up
Lean R

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Charlie Cook's Column

Clinton's Rough Road Ahead

March 27, 2015

The front-page headline in The Washington Post said it all: "Democrats in key states ask: Where is Hillary?" Putting aside the simple facts that the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are both 10 months away and that Hillary Clinton is not expected to officially enter the race before next month, this headline says so much more. In fact, it telegraphs the coming story line.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2014 election.

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