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Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, March 24, 2017

ALABAMA: On February 9, Republican Gov. Robert Bentley appointed then-state Attorney General Luther Strange to fill the seat vacated by U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions who resigned to become Attorney General, and announced that a special election to fulfill the remainder of Sessions’ term would be held in November of next year. Although Bentley instituted a formal process to pick Sessions’...

National Politics|By David Wasserman, March 23, 2017

President Trump’s private warning that 2018 could be a “bloodbath” if Republicans don’t make good on his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act may sound like hyperbole, but Republicans thinking of crossing him shouldn’t laugh it off. Just ask Rep. Martha Roby.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 23, 2017

More than a few House Re­pub­lic­ans are likely to be tak­ing deep breaths as they board the sub­way from the Long­worth or Ray­burn House Of­fice Build­ings to the Cap­it­ol on Thursday to vote on the Amer­ic­an Health Care Act. They know that they will be cast­ing a fate­ful vote on a bill that no one really likes and, giv­en the lack of af­fec­tion for it in the Sen­ate, one that is...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 22, 2017

Last November, just a couple weeks after Donald Trump’s surprising victory and Democrats less-than-impressive showing in House races, Democrats re-elected Nancy Pelosi as their leader – a post she has held since 2003. While there was a significant bloc of “no” votes – the most ever cast against her – she easily dispatched Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio with two-thirds of the caucus vote. A number of...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 21, 2017

The back­lash that Re­pub­lic­ans are ex­per­i­en­cing on their pro­posed Amer­ic­an Health Care Act is very real and should be wor­ri­some to the GOP. But the fal­lout from Pres­id­ent Trump’s pro­posed budget cuts could cause even great­er re­ver­ber­a­tions. Waste, fraud, and ab­use clearly ex­ist in gov­ern­ment spend­ing. But it’s also true that most spend­ing pro­grams ex­ist be­cause a...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, March 17, 2017

Where you live has become a solid predictor of how you’ll vote. And, despite a tumultuous beginning to the Trump era, the geographic divide has shown no signs of budging.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 17, 2017

There are three dis­tinct­ive sea­sons in the bi­an­nu­al elec­tion cycle. The first is to fig­ure out what happened in the last elec­tion and why. The second is to re­cruit the strongest can­did­ates you can find. The third is the cam­paign it­self. The Re­pub­lic­an Na­tion­al Com­mit­tee’s autopsy of the 2012 elec­tion, un­der the dir­ec­tion of then-party chair­man Re­ince Priebus, was...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, March 17, 2017

The departures of five members for various cabinet and state-level positions has spawned a packed season of House special elections between April and June. Budget and health care fights could turn these contests into message testing opportunities for parties and groups, but most are taking place in safe seats.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, March 15, 2017

In many ways, the chal­lenge fa­cing Re­pub­lic­ans in en­act­ing their Amer­ic­an Health Care Act looks pretty close to in­sur­mount­able. The most con­ser­vat­ive mem­bers of the House Re­pub­lic­an Con­fer­ence, as well as al­lied groups such as the Club for Growth, Freedom­Works, the Her­it­age Found­a­tion, and Breit­bart News, are de­rid­ing it as “Obama­care Lite” and a be­tray­al of...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Republicans Weigh Their RyanCare Votes

March 23, 2017

More than a few House Re­pub­lic­ans are likely to be tak­ing deep breaths as they board the sub­way from the Long­worth or Ray­burn House Of­fice Build­ings to the Cap­it­ol on Thursday to vote on the Amer­ic­an Health Care Act. They know that they will be cast­ing a fate­ful vote on a bill that no one really likes and, giv­en the lack of af­fec­tion for it in the Sen­ate, one that is...

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

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