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Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, February 17, 2017

The year-end 2016 FEC reports are out, providing a first look at the beginning cash-on-hand balances for Senate incumbents up for re-election in 2018. While these numbers are hardly determinant of the outcome of races that will occur 20 months from now, they do shed some light as to how much thought and early preparation have gone into a re-election bid.

Georgia House|By David Wasserman, February 17, 2017

GOP Rep. Tom Price's confirmation as HHS secretary sets up an April special election in a wealthy, well-educated Atlanta seat President Trump carried by less than two points after Mitt Romney carried it by 23 points in 2012. And if Trump's approval rating ebbs into the spring, it could turn into the first test of Democrats' ability to compete on traditionally GOP turf where Trump has...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 17, 2017

Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, February 15, 2017

President Trump, as we know, is more transactional than ideological. He campaigned as the guy who could make the “best deals” – whether it’s free trade or the cost of concrete for the new border wall – without the pressure having to stay within the bounds of traditional republican orthodoxy. Forget about the “old way” of doing business, Trump was going to come to DC and rewrite the whole...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 14, 2017

Con­gres­sion­al Re­pub­lic­ans in gen­er­al and the more con­ser­vat­ive mem­bers in par­tic­u­lar are already find­ing life in the pres­id­ent’s party a lot more com­plic­ated than it was when they could simply throw rocks at the Obama ad­min­is­tra­tion and hold hear­ings on Benghazi and Hil­lary Clin­ton’s emails.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 10, 2017

Two things seem abund­antly clear right now. First, Pres­id­ent Trump’s agenda and pri­or­it­ies are ex­actly what he laid out in his bois­ter­ous cam­paign. No one should be sur­prised by what he is do­ing. Second, the di­vi­sions over Can­did­ate Trump mir­ror the per­cep­tions of Pres­id­ent Trump. Des­pite the con­tro­ver­sies of his early days in of­fice, his back­ers have mainly held...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, February 8, 2017

There’s been lots of uncertainty and confusion in these first three weeks of the Trump Administration. But one thing is quite clear: Trump is going to run his White House like he ran his campaign. That means a chaotic and conflict driven management style run by Trump’s gut instincts and a small group of advisors (many of whom are pitted against one another). It also means a reliance on issues...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, February 7, 2017

My face has yet to get ac­cus­tomed to win­cing ump­teen times a day at what both sides are do­ing these days. Not hav­ing been on the line dur­ing Sat­urday’s phone call between Pres­id­ent Trump and Aus­trali­an Prime Min­is­ter Mal­colm Turn­bull, it’s hard to know ex­actly what happened, but it cer­tainly ap­pears that our newly min­ted pres­id­ent was something less than re­spect­ful...

House Overview|By David Wasserman, February 3, 2017

House Republicans begin the 2018 cycle with a favorable map and plenty of structural and turnout advantages, as we detailed two weeks ago. However, history shows that fortunes can change in a hurry. And if the next 21 months of the Trump administration are much rockier than the last two weeks, the House could be in play in the midterms.

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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Charlie Cook's Column

GOP Faces Trump Effect in 2018

February 17, 2017

Many congressional Republicans who had town meetings over the last week or two have gotten an earful from constituents upset over the proposed repeal of the Affordable Care Act or President Trump’s immigration enforcement or both. Some of these highly unpleasant scenes don’t look too different from what congressional Democrats encountered back in 2009 and 2013, rocky years that preceded...

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Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

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