Ted Cruz has the same plan to win the GOP nomination as he does to win the general election: appeal to, motivate and turn-out evangelical and disaffected and disgruntled conservative voters. While running to the right in a primary is a tried-and-true strategy, the Cruz campaign is taking that strategy into the general election as well. Cruz eschews the tradition of moving to the middle in the...
In his first speech as Speaker of the House, Rep. Paul Ryan acknowledged that “the House is broken” and promised some changes in how the House would do business. He laid out two rules of thumb: “The committees should retake the lead in drafting all major legislation” and “Open up the process. Let people participate.”
Last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris amounted to a 9/11 event for the French and, for Americans, a vivid memory of that horrific day 14 years ago. It also reminds us that we could very well have another—experts say it’s almost inevitable. So, what effect will the tragedy in Paris have on the U.S. presidential campaign and next year’s election? The short answer: Ask me again in 50 weeks.
On Saturday, Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter soundly lost an open race for Governor. After the polls closed, he not only conceded the contest to Democrat John Bel Edwards, but he announced the end of his political career. Vitter said that he would finish out his term in the Senate, but that he would not run for re-election next year. This creates the sixth open seat of the cycle, but...
The election is now just a mere 354 days away. While this cycle’s 34 Senate races got off to a slow start compared with recent elections, they began to ramp up over the summer and into the fall. The Senate race landscape is now much clearer, even if the overall political environment isn’t yet.
Retirement season is upon the House, and so far the numbers are pretty even: there are 13 Democratic open seats and 15 GOP open seats, although there could be 10-20 more before the cycle is over. The good news for Democrats is that just two of their 13 open seats are at serious risk of falling to Republicans, while five of Republicans' 15 open seats are at risk of falling to Democrats.
Few would argue with the premise that, in the five months since June, presidential politics have behaved in extraordinary ways. The “Feel The Bern” surge of Bernie Sanders on the left and the rise of Donald Trump and, more recently, Ben Carson on the right—none of these were developments that anyone predicted a year or two ago.
In the wake of the horrific terrorist attacks in Paris there's been a lot of chatter here in DC about their impact on the 2016 elections. Will the "outsiders" be pushed out as voters flock to more traditional and experienced politicians? Will terrorism and security, two issues that have fallen to the bottom of the concern list for voters in recent years, rise back to the top? It's obviously too...
Beyond the phenomenally lopsided overall spending, a look at past ad buys and reservations of future ad time reveals some other potential medium-by-medium effects of a less contested Democratic primary versus the mosh pit that is the Republican race. Just four Democratic advertisers have been up on TV or radio in this month alone. On the Republican side? Fifteen.
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. Thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans gained 13 seats in 2014, their largest share of seats since 1928. Democrats are likely to bounce back somewhat in the presidential cycle of 2016. But given how well sorted-out the House has become, netting the 30 seats they need for a majority looks like an unrealistic goal today. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain in the 5-10 seat range.
The 2016 cycle will host 15 gubernatorial contests, including three races in 2015, and 12 in 2016, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending nine seats to six for Republicans. The most interesting races of 2015 will be the open seats in Kentucky and Louisiana. In 2016, the marquis contests will be the open seat in Missouri and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Of Paris and (Would-Be) PresidentsNovember 24, 2015
Last week’s terrorist attacks in Paris amounted to a 9/11 event for the French and, for Americans, a vivid memory of that horrific day 14 years ago. It also reminds us that we could very well have another—experts say it’s almost inevitable. So, what effect will the tragedy in Paris have on the U.S. presidential campaign and next year’s election? The short answer: Ask me again in 50 weeks.Read more »
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »