Dante J. Scala teaches political science at the University of New Hampshire and is the author of two books about New Hampshire presidential politics: The Four faces of the Republican Party: The Fight for the 2016 Republican Nomination (with Henry Olsen) and Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics.
If Democrats want to make a serious dent in Republicans' House majority, they'll need to break through in diversifying, suburban districts where Donald Trump is about as popular as snarled traffic. Florida's 7th CD, north of Orlando and near the site of both the Pulse Nightclub and Trayvon Martin shootings, fits that description perfectly. Yet as recently as June, Democrats couldn't even find a...
The narrowing gap in the presidential race has given Republican House strategists renewed optimism that Donald Trump may not be as big a drag on their candidates as they once feared. With a few notable exceptions, recent polls have depicted stable or improving GOP numbers in many districts Democrats have considered top targets. This week, we are revising our ratings in eight districts,...
The first debate of the 2016 fall season has concluded with a whimper more than a bang. If you were expecting the sky to fall or the race to be completed upended, you were sorely disappointed. If you went into the debate expecting or hoping see a more thoughtful, nuanced and disciplined Trump, you didn’t get it. If you expected - or hoped - to hear Hillary Clinton’s vision for the future or the...
This presidential race is very, very close, with the poll averages showing Hillary Clinton nursing a small lead. The RealClearPolitics.com average puts her ahead of Donald Trump by just 1.1 points, 41 percent to 39.9 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson third at 8.8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein fourth with 2.9 percent. The RCP two-way gives Clinton a...
U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ success in popularizing a progressive agenda during the Democratic presidential primary has given the progressive movement some momentum. Progressives in the Senate seem especially emboldened, which begs the question of how substantial and influential will this bloc be if Democrats win the majority in November?
Republicans haven't gained a House seat in California since 1998, and Santa Barbara and the Central Coast aren't exactly Donald Trump bastions. But a new poll conducted by the Tarrance Group for GOP nominee Justin Fareed's campaign shows him leading Democratic Santa Barbara Supervisor Salud Carbajal 46 percent to 43 percent in the race for retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps's open seat, and...
If you focus on the national presidential horse-race polls, Hillary Clinton has a sliver of a lead over Donald Trump—by nine-tenths of a point in the RealClearPolitics.com average of major national polls in the two-way trial heat, 44.9 to 44 percent; by seven-tenths of a point in the four-way heat, 41 to 40.3 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson third at 8.6 percent...
The two major party conventions are now behind us and the consequent bounces have had time to settle giving us a presidential race that isn’t over, but one that is fully developed. Many observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly there...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.
The current House breakdown is 247 Republicans, 186 Democrats and two vacancies. In 2014, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, and hope that linking Republican candidates to unpopular GOP nominee Donald Trump could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it remains very unlikely Democrats will net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-20 seats, with slightly larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Clinton’s Narrow Lead Could Produce an Electoral RoutSeptember 27, 2016
This presidential race is very, very close, with the poll averages showing Hillary Clinton nursing a small lead. The RealClearPolitics.com average puts her ahead of Donald Trump by just 1.1 points, 41 percent to 39.9 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson third at 8.8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein fourth with 2.9 percent. The RCP two-way gives Clinton a...Read more »
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.Download »
The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »