The charts below feature presidential approval figures since the start of 2013 for President Obama by CNN/ORC, Fox News, ABC/Washington Post, and Gallup. Gallup daily tracking figures from the last ten days are featured in their own chart. Hover your mouse over any point on the line to see presidential approval survey results from these time periods.
ALASKA: By any measure, first-term Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is among the most vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election next year. He hails from a heavily Republican state that gave President Obama 43 percent of the vote last year. Begich won the seat in 2008 with just 48 percent of the vote, defeating an embattled Republican incumbent by just 3,953 votes. But, Begich ha…
We have been asked more than once over the past two weeks to grade each party on their success in recruiting Senate candidates this cycle. So far, we give them an incomplete.The Democratic and Republicans campaign committees don’t get that grade because they haven’t done the work. Instead, it is simply too early in the cycle to assess their performance fairly. After all, the firs…
Florida's 2nd District is exactly the kind of district House Democrats need to win in order to take back the House in 2014. At a PVI of R+6, there are only five House Democrats who represent districts more Republican than FL-02. Then again there aren't many Republicans sitting in marginal seats, so FL-02 is the kind of GOP-leaning "reach" district Democrats need to put in play. Hugging the…
In Charlie's latest National Journal column, he discusses why Republicans should take seriously the fact that, despite the recent controversies the Obama Administration has been facing, the President's job approval numbers continue to hold steady, and that the GOP risks overreaching in their responses.
The charts below feature presidential approval figures since the start of 2013 for President Obama by CNN/ORC, Fox News, ABC/Washington Post, and Gallup. Gallup daily tracking figures from the last ten days are featured in their own chart. Hover your mouse over any point on the line to see presidential approval survey results from these time periods.
In America the Polarized, almost every issue is viewed through a partisan lens. The most recent trio of troubles to hit the White House--IRS, Benghazi and DoJ--has elicited predictably partisan feelings. According to an ABC/Washington Post poll released this week, 74 percent of Republicans believe that the GOP-led investigation into the attacks on an American consulate in Libya are legitimate, wh…
As POLITICO’s Mike Allen might write, “Not The Onion: guns, immigration drive 2016 ads in IA, NH, SC.” The fact of these ads will pique the interest of anyone jonesing for the next big race. More significantly, the focus on guns and immigration suggests that 2016 just might bring the end to our decade-long drought of presidential campaign debate over social issues. Sen. Marco Rubio (R) has benefit…
With the newest controversy over Justice Department subpoenas of Associated Press reporters’ and editors’ telephone records, President Obama and his administration find themselves drawing fire from three different directions. Last week’s stories indicating that the Internal Revenue Service targeted tea-party groups and other conservative organizations for investigation sent a shiver down the spine…
This was a close race (51.06% to 47.21%) but not that close; five post-World War II presidential races have been closer. Republicans have now lost the popular vote in five out of the last six elections. The 332 to 206 Electoral vote majority for Obama means that from 1992 on, no Republican has won 300 or more Electoral votes, and Democrats have won 300 or more in four out of the six. Democrats have now won 18 states (plus DC) in six consecutive elections, with a total of 242 Electoral votes, 89.6% of the 270 needed to win.
The current Senate line-up is 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and two independents that caucus with Democrats. There are 35 Senate races on the ballot in 2014. To win the majority, Republicans would have to score a net gain of six seats. Democrats are defending 21 of these seats, including six in states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012, and two more that are in swing states. By contrast, Republicans will defend 14 seats, only one of which is in a state that President Obama carried last year. These numbers would suggest that Republicans should be in a position to gain seats this cycle. However, the numbers also worked in Republicans’ favor last cycle and yet they lost two seats. At this early stage, the odds of Democrats losing seats are far greater than the odds of them gaining seats. At the same time, it is far too early to say that their majority is in danger, or that they will suffer significant losses.
After Democrats gained eight House seats in 2012, the new breakdown is 232 Republicans, 200 Democrats, and three vacancies. Democrats need to gain 17 seats to reach a majority in 2014, but the House is well sorted-out and a net shift of more than five to ten seats in either direction is unlikely.
The current line up of the nation’s Governors is 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats and one independent. There are two races in 2013 – New Jersey and Virginia – and 36 contests in 2014. Of these 38 races, 24 are held by Republicans, 13 by Democrats and one by an independent. Republicans have far more exposure to losses. Of the GOP’s 24 seats, President Obama easily carried eight of these states in 2012, while another three seats are in swing states. Only one of Democrats’ 13 seats is in a state that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried. At this point in the cycle, it appears that Republicans are more likely to lose seats than gain them, but it is too early to predict a range of gains or losses for either party.
In Charlie's latest National Journal column, he discusses why Republicans should take seriously the fact that, despite the recent controversies the Obama Administration has been facing, the President's job approval numbers continue to hold steady, and that the GOP risks overreaching in their responses.
Read more »A breakdown of the Partisan Voter Index for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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These charts combining Kantar Media CMAG broadcast television and NCC Media local cable data show a TV ad mix heavy on broadcast news in the morning but local cable at night.
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The last issue of "The Rhodes Cook Letter" explored the idea that the Republicans are the "congressional party." This issue takes a look at the opposite - that the Democrats are the modern day "presidential party." The ongoing round of special congression
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