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National Politics|By Amy Walter, April 24, 2017

So, here we are at President Trump’s first 100 day mark.  As we’ve been reminded over and over again this week, Trump, when compared to presidents past, is the most unpopular at this stage of his presidency. Despite the president’s boasts of productivity and his own self-imposed 100-day deadlines, he’s got little to show for his first few months in Washington.

Virginia House|By David Wasserman, April 21, 2017

This week, Democrats landed their top recruit against GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock when state Sen. Jennifer Wexton announced her candidacy, vaulting VA-10 to the top of their 2018 takeover target list. Comstock, who prevailed 53 percent to 47 percent last fall while President Trump lost her Northern Virginia seat by 10 points, represents a rapidly Democratic-trending area that would be adversely...

Alabama Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, April 21, 2017

Among Kay Ivey’s first acts in her new role as Governor was to overturn a decision by her predecessor Robert Bentley to hold the special election to finish the remainder of former Jeff Sessions’ term on November 8 of 2018 to coincide with state and federal elections. Ivey took the side of those who have argued that a special election must be held this year. As such, she set a primary for...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 20, 2017

The me­dia and crit­ics on the Left are hav­ing a field day at­tack­ing Pres­id­ent Trump’s rather nu­mer­ous and of­ten dra­mat­ic changes of heart on policy—wheth­er China ma­nip­u­lates its cur­rency, the ne­ces­sity of the U.S. Ex­port-Im­port Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s stra­tegic pos­ture in Syr­ia.

Georgia House|By David Wasserman, April 19, 2017

If you had told Democrats three months ago that first-time candidate Jon Ossoff would have taken 48 percent of the vote to advance to the GA-06 runoff against GOP former Secretary of State Karen Handel (20 percent), they would have been ecstatic. Now, after all the celebrity tweets, over $10 million raised and more hype than any House race has ever generated, Ossoff's failure to hit 50 percent...

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, April 18, 2017

The bot­tom didn’t fall out for Re­pub­lic­ans in this week’s House spe­cial elec­tion to re­place newly-min­ted CIA Dir­ect­or Mike Pom­peo, but a yel­low cau­tion light is def­in­itely flash­ing for the GOP.

Georgia House|By David Wasserman, April 14, 2017

The surprising closeness of the KS-04 special election has Democrats excited about Jon Ossoff's prospects of winning GA-06 outright by hitting 50 percent of the vote in Tuesday's primary election. After all, the thinking goes, if Republican Ron Estes (KS-04) won by only seven points in a district President Trump carried by 27, then surely Ossoff can attain a majority in a district Trump only...

National Politics|By Amy Walter, April 14, 2017

There’s nothing those inside the beltway love more than a good White House “palace intrigue” story. It’s the kind of stuff that DC’s gossip driven culture is built for. But, what about folks who don’t live here and who have real lives? Do they really care about the Steve Bannon/Jared Kushner battles? Will it matter in the long term? Is it taking a toll on the President and his agenda? Here’s...

Senate Overview|By Jennifer Duffy, April 14, 2017

Our most up-to-date take on 2018's Senate races

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.

  • The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Wisconsin  |  District 08  |  Ribble (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 24  |  Katko (R)

Lean R
Likely R

New York  |  District 22  |  Hanna (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 03  |  Israel (D)

Likely D
Lean D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Lean R
Likely R

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    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump’s Policies Are a Result of On-the-Job Training

April 20, 2017

The me­dia and crit­ics on the Left are hav­ing a field day at­tack­ing Pres­id­ent Trump’s rather nu­mer­ous and of­ten dra­mat­ic changes of heart on policy—wheth­er China ma­nip­u­lates its cur­rency, the ne­ces­sity of the U.S. Ex­port-Im­port Bank and NATO, and the U.S.’s stra­tegic pos­ture in Syr­ia.

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Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
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Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
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The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

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The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

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