There’s an old saying that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and that’s certainly how Democrats must feel after losing their third and fourth attempts of the year to wrestle away Republican-held seats in special congressional elections. In fairness, the first two shouldn’t fully count against them since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was...
While most of the political world has been focused on special elections for vacant House seats and the developing congressional mid-term elections, the two gubernatorial contests that will take place this November and the 36 races on the ballot in 2018 have started to take shape.
For congressional Republicans in the new norm of the Trump presidency, nothing is easy, and everything is hard. Raising the debt ceiling in order to keep the government from defaulting on its debt is normally easy; now it is hard. Passing an omnibus budget bill to simply keep the government operating (forget the idea of passing the full battery of 12 appropriations...
As I predicted back in March, Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi played an outsized role in the special elections held in GOP-leaning seats this spring. Republicans pounded the Atlanta airwaves in the GA-06 special election with thousands of ads attacking Democrat Jon Ossoff, who positioned himself as a moderate and a centrist, as a puppet for Pelosi’s “liberal agenda.”...
It's a devastating psychological blow for a party to spend over $30 million on a House special election and still lose. For Democrats, Jon Ossoff's defeat to Karen Handel stings, and the blame game is already raging: "Why did Ossoff run such a bland campaign? Why didn't he take a sledgehammer to Trump and the AHCA? Don't Democrats need to recruit little league coaches with deeper ties to their...
After the senseless shooting Wednesday morning at the Republican baseball practice, writing about electoral politics seems inappropriate. That column can wait.
The huge story out of last week's UK parliamentary elections was that Prime Minister Theresa May's decision to call them backfired spectacularly. Less noticed here, but perhaps with much larger implications for American politics, was where Tories suffered their most embarrassing losses: the constituencies where a Labour victory, especially one led by the likes of Jeremy Corbyn, would have...
Voters got a nail-biter of a primary night, just not the one they expected.
The score is now 2-1: Britain has produced two stunning electoral surprises in the last year, the United States just one. While there is a danger in reading too much into the results of individual elections, particularly one from an ocean away, there are some common threads. Both Brexit and Donald Trump’s presidential victory were about populism, nationalism,...
In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. In 2016, the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party has been helped by open seats, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. Wth two weeks before Election Day, Democrats appear to be on track to pick up between four and six seats.
The 2016 election resulted in a House breakdown of 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats, with one Louisiana seat headed to a December 10 runoff that is very likely to be won by a Republican. Democrats scored a net gain of six seats, a disappointing result for a party that had hoped to pick up more than 15 and cut the GOP's majority in half. Democrats' best hope for a majority in 2018 would be an unpopular President Donald Trump. But given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it could still be very difficult for Democrats to pick up the 24 seats they would need.
The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Democrats Find It’s Risky to Poke the GOP ElephantJune 27, 2017
There’s an old saying that close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, and that’s certainly how Democrats must feel after losing their third and fourth attempts of the year to wrestle away Republican-held seats in special congressional elections. In fairness, the first two shouldn’t fully count against them since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was...Read more »
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The 2016 Political Environment
Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »