With three months left to go before Election Day, the political environment feels much more like 2010 than 2012. President Obama continues to be a drag on Democrats in most competitive House districts. Although Democrats are hoping to refocus voter attention on "do nothing Republicans," they face severe challenges in motivating some elements of their base to the polls. As both parties size...
Every election cycle is different. Each has a unique political environment and set of circumstances, all of which keep elections interesting. Aside from the extremely competitive fight over the Senate, the biggest change this time around is the multitude of Senate forecasts using quantitative election models of various types; these new players are joining the game alongside the more...
The Cook Political Report has updated its House and Senate FEC charts to reflect receipts, disbursements, and cash on hand figures through the second quarter of 2014. Figures listed in these charts reflect the most current campaign summary information available through the Federal Election Commission.
There’s a certain irony in political operatives bemoaning the crass political strategy laid out in - what was supposed to be – a private internal campaign strategy memo for Georgia Senate candidate Michelle Nunn. Anyone who has ever worked for or with a campaign has either written or read a memo like this one: a memo that made frank assessments of the strengths and weaknesses of one’s own...
What’s in a name? If you’re running for public office, a lot. Ever notice how you never see a relative of a disgraced politician run? Whereas every cycle sees at least a couple of still-respected family names on the ballot. 2014 is a banner year for the family business. From Senate chambers past, the Ashcroft, Begich, Graham, Nunn, Pell and Pryor clans all have members seeking Senate or...
A friend of mine who has been a lobbyist for years—and wants to remain anonymous so he can continue doing it a while longer—recently made the argument to me that the current Congress is not, in fact, the least productive in U.S. history. But you do have to go quite a way back: He says the Ninth Congress, from 1805 to 1807, during Thomas Jefferson's second term in office, did even less, because...
Primary season is largely completed, the August congressional recess starts next week, and the general election is a mere 102 days away. As such, this is as good a time as any to assess where the battle for the Senate stands. Just how close are Republicans to picking up the six seats they need to win the majority? The short answer is pretty close. Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans and...
It should be great news for House Democrats that a laundry list of moderate Republicans like Reps. Tom Latham (IA-03), Mike Rogers (MI-08), Jon Runyan (NJ-03), Jim Gerlach (PA-06), Frank Wolf (VA-10), and Tom Petri (WI-06) are retiring, leaving fairly marginal seats open. But given the beneficial national environment and midterm turnout dynamic, not to mention recent redistricting, Republicans
A piece this Sunday on Texas Gov. Rick Perry in The Des Moines Register by the paper's top political reporter, Jennifer Jacobs, caught my eye. Jacobs's observations about seeing Perry on the stump in Iowa in recent days matched my impressions from a meeting with him last month. Jacobs observed that "a guy who in the past didn't seem like he could run for a governor's office much less the Oval...
The 2014 Political Environment
Updated August 1, 2014 | As the 2014 midterm election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »
The current Senate line-up is 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and two independents that caucus with Democrats. There are 36 Senate races on the ballot in 2014. To win the majority, Republicans would have to score a net gain of six seats. Democrats are defending 21 of these seats, including six in states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012, and two more that are in swing states. By contrast, Republicans will defend 15 seats, only one of which is in a state that President Obama carried in 2012. Republicans have also successfully expanded the playing field of vulnerable Democratic-held seats, increasing their chances of winning the majority. Republicans are on track to pick up between four and six seats; it is more likely than not that the number will be at the higher end of – and may exceed – that range.
The current House breakdown is 234 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and two Democratic vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to reach a majority in 2014. Because the House is well sorted-out, large shifts or a change in partisan control of the House are unlikely. In large part because of President Obama's standing and the GOP's midterm turnout advantages, we would estimate a Republican gain of between two and 12 House seats if the election were held today.
The current line up of the nation’s Governors is 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats. There are 36 contests in 2014. Of these 36 races, 22 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. Republicans have far more exposure to losses. Of the GOP’s 22 seats, President Obama easily carried seven of these states in 2012, while another three seats are in swing states. Only one of Democrats’ 14 seats is in a state that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried. While a favorable political landscape should help Republicans in the Senate and the House, it won’t be as helpful in gubernatorial contests. As such, Democrats are likely to gain between two and four seats.
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Charlie Cook's Column
Crystal-Ball Gazing on the Senate RacesAugust 1, 2014
Every election cycle is different. Each has a unique political environment and set of circumstances, all of which keep elections interesting. Aside from the extremely competitive fight over the Senate, the biggest change this time around is the multitude of Senate forecasts using quantitative election models of various types; these new players are joining the game alongside the more...Read more »
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a look at the 2014 primary season ahead of November's midterm elections.Download »