The bad news for Democrats: out of the 30 House incumbents we currently regard as vulnerable - that is, either in our Lean or Toss Up columns in our latest ratings - 22 are Democrats and just eight are Republicans. Of those 22 Democrats, 17 are freshmen who won narrowly in the favorable year of 2012 but now must prove they can withstand a much less favorable climate in 2014. The good news...
Arizona: The general election for this open seat has been a long time in coming. Republicans held a protracted six-way primary on August 26. State Treasurer and Cold Stone Creamery founder Doug Ducey won the nomination with 36 percent of the vote, followed by Mesa Mayor Scott Smith with 22 percent, and former GoDaddy.com executive Christine Jones with 16 percent. Ducey...
Despite dismal numbers for President Obama, a public deeply pessimistic about the direction of the country, and a Senate battleground based almost solely in red states, Republicans aren’t running up the score in Senate races, even in deep red states. Many are asking: why hasn’t the bottom dropped out on Democrats yet? The answer is: it already did. Since very early this cycle, both sides...
Whenever some big story hits, we at CMAG get asked whether we’re starting to see it show up in political ads. The tumult in the Middle East? (No.) The border crisis? (Not so much—just in a trio of Senate races, plus here and there at the House level.) Politicians’ aversion to risk keeps most from airing ads that stake out any position on a moving national story. One big news story of 2014,...
Next Tuesday marks the last major primary day of the year, as Arizona and Florida head to the polls for their primaries and Oklahoma decides a GOP runoff in the 5th CD. After next week, the only real House primary contests left will be in New Hampshire, where Republicans are holding competitive primaries in both districts for the right to take on Democratic Reps. Carol Shea-Porter and Annie...
When U.S. Sen. Max Baucus announced his retirement, Democrats were quick to say that they would hold the seat without much effort. While that claim was premature, not even Democrats could have imagined the strange twists and turns that this race...
There was quite a flurry of interest the other day about the fact that highly endangered Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor released an ad praising Obamacare. Ok, he didn’t actually praise it. He didn’t even use the term “Obamacare” or “Affordable Care Act”. Still, given the fact that even President Obama never mentioned the health care law in English language ads during the 2012 campaign, it’s...
Georgia: Despite the fact that the Peach State is a challenge for them, Democrats have made good on their promise to contest this Republican-held open seat. President Obama took 46 percent here in 2012, a point less than he got in 2008. Republicans hold both U.S. Senate seats, eight of the 13 congressional districts, the governorship, and both chambers of the state legislature. But, Democrats...
Connecticut: The 2010 race for what was an open seat was epic. There were competitive primaries on both sides and a general election that was so close it took a several days before the winner was announced. In the end, former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy beat Republican businessman Tom Foley by about 6,400 votes out over 1.1 million ballots cast. It looks as if 2014 will be a rematch. Foley easily...
The 2014 Political Environment
Updated August 26, 2014 | As the 2014 midterm election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.Read full report »
The current Senate line-up is 53 Democrats, 45 Republicans, and two independents that caucus with Democrats. There are 36 Senate races on the ballot in 2014. To win the majority, Republicans would have to score a net gain of six seats. Democrats are defending 21 of these seats, including six in states that GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney won easily in 2012, and two more that are in swing states. By contrast, Republicans will defend 15 seats, only one of which is in a state that President Obama carried in 2012. Republicans have also successfully expanded the playing field of vulnerable Democratic-held seats, increasing their chances of winning the majority. Republicans are on track to pick up between four and six seats; it is more likely than not that the number will be at the higher end of – and may exceed – that range.
The current House breakdown is 234 Republicans, 199 Democrats, and two Democratic vacancies. Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to reach a majority in 2014. Because the House is well sorted-out, large shifts or a change in partisan control of the House are unlikely. In large part because of President Obama's standing and the GOP's midterm turnout advantages, we would estimate a Republican gain of between two and 12 House seats if the election were held today.
The current line up of the nation’s Governors is 29 Republicans and 21 Democrats. There are 36 contests in 2014. Of these 36 races, 22 are held by Republicans and 14 by Democrats. Republicans have far more exposure to losses. Of the GOP’s 22 seats, President Obama easily carried seven of these states in 2012, while another three seats are in swing states. Only one of Democrats’ 14 seats is in a state that Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried. While a favorable political landscape should help Republicans in the Senate and the House, it won’t be as helpful in gubernatorial contests. As such, Democrats are likely to gain between two and four seats.
The Cook Political Report is...
- A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
– The New York Times
- The bible of the political community.
– Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
- Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
– David Broder, The Washington Post
Charlie Cook's Column
The Lessons of 2010August 5, 2014
In real estate, the three most important things are said to be "location, location, and location." In politics, it might well be "timing, timing, and timing." As we approach the 2014 midterm elections, the Senate's Democratic majority is teetering on the edge, but the House is just an afterthought, with little chance that it will change control or direction. Had it not been for the Democratic...Read more »
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The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)
The 2014 Partisan Voting Index
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The Rhodes Cook Letter
In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a look at the 2014 primary season ahead of November's midterm elections.Download »