Jump to Any Race
International Politics|By Michael Nelson, June 24, 2016

Yesterday’s binding decision to leave the European Union was the second in what seems likely to be five votes (and possibly six) during the next couple years—none of which would be imaginable in American political system.

National Politics|By David Wasserman, June 24, 2016

Hillary Clinton has a substantial lead in the polls over Donald Trump, and has vastly more cash on hand. But when it comes to spending that cash, her campaign may be making a strategic miscalculation. The campaign and an allied super PAC have reserved $137 million of ads across eight states.

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 24, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 20, 2016.

National Politics|By Amy Walter, June 22, 2016

There’s no doubt that Donald J. Trump has had a bad few weeks. His party remains split over his nomination. He fired his campaign manager and his campaign has less money in the bank than some state Senate candidates.

Florida Senate|By Jennifer Duffy, June 22, 2016

Republican U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio has reversed his decision to retire from the Senate at the end of this Congress and will run for a second term. In doing so, he has breathed new life into the GOP's chances of holding the seat, but that doesn't mean that he has become anything more than the very slightest of favorites in November. The race will remain in the Toss Up column.

House Overview|By David Wasserman, June 21, 2016

Right now, most bettors foresee nine words that are the stuff of Republicans’ 2017 nightmares: “President Hillary Clinton and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.” But at least the House is safe for the GOP. It is, right?

National Politics|By Charlie Cook, June 21, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 17, 2016.

Political Books|By Michael Nelson, June 20, 2016

A proud disclaimer: Timothy S. Huebner, the author of Liberty and Union: The Civil War and American Constitutionalism, is my friend and colleague. One reason is that he writes and thinks so deeply and well about how history illuminates the present. In February Huebner’s op-ed in the New York Times shed needed light on the question of what historically has happened when a Supreme Court...

Florida House|By David Wasserman, June 17, 2016

This morning, Florida GOP Rep. David Jolly announced he is dropping his Senate bid to run for reelection to the House in FL-13, giving Republicans a credible path against former Gov. Charlie Crist, who will be the Democratic nominee. But he is still the underdog: a new court-ordered map unites St. Petersburg, making FL-13 four points more Democratic than it was in 2014. As a result, Crist is...

  • In 2014, a good political environment, a weakened Democratic President and several open Democratic-held seats in red states combined to give Senate Republicans a nine-seat gain and the majority. The 2016 cycle looks very different cycle for Republican, as the tables are turned. Republicans will defend 24 seats to just 10 for Democrats. Of those 24 seats, President Obama carried the states of five of them in 2012 by at least five points, and carried two more by one and three points. Neither party may be helped by open seats as we suspect there won’t be many retirements this cycle, particularly compared to the last three cycles. Democrats need five seats – or four if they retain the White House – to take back the majority. It’s still very early, but winning back the majority may prove more challenging than it looks today.

  • The current House breakdown is 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats and one vacancy. In 2014, thanks to President Obama's standing and the GOP's natural midterm turnout advantages, Republicans picked up 13 seats, winning their largest share of seats since 1928. In 2016, Democrats were already poised to bounce back amid higher presidential turnout, but the prospect of the broadly unpopular Donald Trump as the Republican nominee could put even more GOP seats in jeopardy. Still, given Republicans' redistricting advantages and how well sorted-out the House has become, it would be very difficult for Democrats to net the 30 seats they need for a majority. Today, our outlook is a Democratic gain of 5-15 seats, with substantially larger gains possible if the top of the GOP ticket appears headed for a landslide defeat in November.

  • The 2016 cycle will host 12 gubernatorial contests, including the special election in Oregon. Democrats are defending eight seats to four for Republicans. The marquis contests will be the Democratic-held open seats in Missouri, New Hampshire and West Virginia, and in North Carolina where GOP Gov. Pat McCrory is seeking a second term. With so few seats on the ballot, neither party is likely to make significant gains or sustain big losses.

Florida  |  District 13  |  Jolly (R)

Likely D
Lean D

North Dakota  |  Governor  |  Dalrymple (R)

Likely R
Solid R

Utah  |  District 04  |  Love (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

New York  |  District 18  |  Maloney (D)

Solid D
Likely D

New York  |  District 01  |  Zeldin (R)

Toss Up
Lean R

The Cook Political Report is...

  • A newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.
    – The New York Times
  • The bible of the political community.
    – Bob Schieffer, host of CBS News "Face the Nation"
  • Perhaps the best nonpartisan tracker of Congressional races.
    – David Broder, The Washington Post

Charlie Cook's Column

Trump Needs a Trick of Fates to Win

June 24, 2016

This story was originally published on nationaljournal.com on June 20, 2016.

Read more »
More Columns »
Sign up for Charlie’s columns as they are released on NationalJournal.com »

Columnists

Amy Walter, National Editor

Amy Walter is the Cook Political Report's National Editor. In her weekly column, Walter provides analysis of the issues, trends, and events that shape the national political environment.
View Columns »

Elizabeth Wilner, Senior Contributing Editor

Elizabeth Wilner is Senior Vice President of Kantar Media Ad Intelligence with oversight of its Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), Contributing Editor of The Cook Political Report, and former Political Director of NBC News. Wilner's weekly segment, "On Points," covers the fast-growing junction of advertising, Big Data, and politics.
View Columns »

The Cook Political Report Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

The 2014 Partisan Voting Index

Since 1997, the Cook Political Report's Partisan Voting Index (PVI) has been the gold standard in measuring how each state and district performs at the presidential level relative to the nation as a whole. Click below for the breakdown of PVI for every House district in the 113th Congress.
See Chart »
Read More »

The Rhodes Cook Letter

In the latest issue of the Rhodes Cook Letter, Rhodes takes a close look at the 2016 election.

Download »

The 2016 Political Environment

Updated November 25, 2015 | As the 2016 election cycle begins to take shape, the Cook Political Report has identified several metrics worth monitoring between now and Election Day.

Read full report »

The Almanac of American Politics