After the volatile elections of 1994 and 1996, 1998 is shaping up to be a status quo election year. Certainly, there will be much activity over the next 15 months, but
there is no sign of wholesale change on the horizon for next year. The economy, usually the single most important factor in any election, and particularly in second-term, mid-term elections, is unusually strong. President Clinton's job approval ratings are at or near record levels in almost all of the polls. And, the foreign policy front seems quite stable and hardly a top-of-mind concern for voters. Of course, these factors could change before the election, but for now, none of them look likely to cause either party major difficulties or endanger incumbents as a class. Having said that, there remains a 20-percent to 25-percent chance that Republicans could lose control of the House, even in a status quo environment, due to their narrow 11-seat margin.
Subscribe Today
Our subscribers have first access to individual race pages for each House, Senate and Governors race, which will include race ratings (each race is rated on a seven-point scale) and a narrative analysis pertaining to that race.