If you’re hoping to avoid down-ballot drama this year, Tennessee’s the state for you. In 2020, Donald Trump won a larger raw vote margin in Tennessee than in any other state. Shortly thereafter Republican legislators used redistricting to carve liberal Nashville into three different seats, prompting Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper to retire. That expanded their advantage in the state’s congressional delegation from 7R-2D to 8R-1D, with all of their incumbents sitting pretty in districts that opted for Trump by double digits.
In discussions with sources on the ground, Reps. Tim Burchett (TN-02) and Andy Ogles (TN-05) — both of whom rebelled against former Speaker Kevin McCarthy at various points in 2023 — are the Republicans most at risk of facing credible primary challenges. But that’s not saying much, since so far no one has volunteered to give either longshot effort a try.
It’s far more likely that a congressional shakeup comes in 2026, when Republican Gov. Bill Lee is term-limited. One prominent state party operative explained that just about every Republican in the delegation is “thinking about thinking about” getting
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