The Cook Political Report: May 17, 1985

With a little more than seventeen months before the next election, no real trends are developing to indicate whether the Republicans will suffer losses of the magnitude of the traditional second-term/mid-term election for the party holding the White House. Of the 63 House races that now appear to be competitive, 32 are presently held by the GOP to 31 for the Democrats, according to a newly completed analysis of all 435 races by the Cook Political Report, The study is based on a survey of eleven political experts who monitor House races for both the Democrats and the Republicans, as well as for business, labor, liberal and conservative political action committees.

Of the 25 most competitive races, those rated as "Toss Ups" by a consensus of the panel, 15 are currently held by the Republicans to 10 by the Democrats, This is partially offset, however, by a larger number of Democrats rated "Lean Democratic" compared to Republicans rated "Lean Republican." Twenty currently-Democratic seats are in the Lean Democratic category compared to 16 GOP-held seats in the Lean Republican group.