Although 1998 continues to shape up as a status quo election year, some movement in recent weeks has brightened Democratic fortunes a bit. As we suggested in January, a strong economy, an optimistic or complacent electorate, a balanced budget and a more popular Congress would seem to be a sure-fire recipe for a high incumbent re-election rate. Combine these incumbent-friendly factors with the fact that there are relatively few competitive open seats, and it is likely that either party could make only small gains.
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