It’s easy to dismiss the Census results as something that only data-heads obsess over. It would also be easy to dismiss the district-by-district manner in which Nebraska and Maine allocate their electoral votes as something best left to political junkies or history buffs.
But look at how close the presidential race is shaping up to be. The RealClearPolitics average has former President Trump leading President Biden by less than 2 percentage points nationwide. What’s more, given how locked in voters’ perceptions of the two candidates are, we may not see a big shift in the numbers over the next eight months.
Which means seemingly picayune details such as post-Census reapportionment or the vagaries of the rules in one New England state and one Midwestern state could matter a great deal.
If both Biden and Trump won every single state and district that they won in 2020, Biden would end up with three fewer and Trump three more Electoral College votes than last time thanks to the decennial reapportionment of the House to allow for shifting populations over the preceding 10
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