There’s little doubt that President Joe Biden is in political trouble. In key swing states, poll after poll shows Biden trailing former President Donald Trump.
Warnings of a depressed Democratic base are everywhere. Young, Black and Hispanic voters are showing less enthusiasm for Biden, while Trump is making inroads with these groups.
And yet in poll after poll, Trump, while leading, has not improved from his 2020 showing.
In looking at the most recent swing state polling of seven key states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — Trump’s current share of the vote is within two and four points of his 2020 performance. It is also very much in line with his 2016 vote share.
For example, polling in Pennsylvania shows Trump’s share of the vote anywhere from 47% to 49%, essentially in line with his 2016 (48%) and 2020 (48.8%) share of the vote. In Arizona, polling has shown Trump taking 46% to 49% of the vote, not much different from where he was in 2020 (49.1%) or 2016 (48%).
Meanwhile, Biden’s polling in
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