Despite the fact that Arizona voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, Democrats have targeted this open seat. They believe that they have a strong candidate in former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona whose personal narrative and Hispanic surname will be important assets. The Republican nominee is U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, who easily won the Republican primary, despite being outspent by a two-to-one margin. There is serious disagreement between the parties about whether or not this is the cycle that Arizona becomes a swing state. Democrats believe that the state is in play, arguing that Carmona’s personal narrative and Hispanic surname is a winning combination. Republicans disagree, saying that they see little evidence that the state’s red political leanings are fading. That argument aside, polling now indicates that this is a Toss Up race.
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