Despite the fact that Arizona voters haven’t elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, Democrats have targeted this open seat. They believe that they have a strong candidate in former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona whose personal narrative and Hispanic surname will be important assets. The Republican nominee is U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake, who easily won the Republican primary, despite being outspent by a two-to-one margin. There is serious disagreement between the parties about whether or not this is the cycle that Arizona becomes a swing state. Democrats believe that the state is in play and that Carmona’s presence on the ballot might help President Obama in November. Republicans disagree, saying that they see little evidence that the state’s red political leanings are fading. That argument aside, this is starting to look like a more competitive general election than many thought just months ago, but Republicans retain a slight advantage in November.
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