Since last week's primary, it has been suggested that because the turn out in the Democratic primary was higher than turnout in the Republican contest, Democratic nominee Sheldon Whitehouse is the favorite to win the seat over Sen. Lincoln Chafee. There were 64,373 votes cast in the GOP contest, smashing the previous record, and 84,812 votes cast in the Democratic primary.
In many states, that would be a fairly accurate assumption. Primary turnout can indicate voter interest in a race or a candidate. It is often a leading indicator of which states are red and which are blue, or the direction that voters in swing states might be leaning in any given year. And, it is sometimes a good test of a political party or campaign's ability to get its supporters to the polls. Of course, none of these rules apply to Rhode Island primaries.
Given Rhode Island's solid blue tint, there aren't many examples of Republican primaries, let alone nomination contests to produce a candidate headed for a competitive general election. There are, however, two races worth looking at.
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