At the start of the 2002 election cycle, Mitch Bainwol, who was then the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, put together a chart that showed that all six of the GOP’s Senate losses in the previous election were from states that were either “Democratic Territory,” defined as a state that Al Gore carried by five points or more (Roth in Delaware and Gorton in Washington), or in “Neutral Territory,” all states that either side carried by less than five points (Abraham in Michigan, Grams in Minnesota, Ashcroft in Missouri and a Florida open seat).
Bainwol then produced second chart that listed the Senate seats up in 2002 in columns by 2000 presidential performance. According to the chart, 17 of the 20 Republican-held seats were in states that President Bush carried in 2000 and six of 14 Democratic-held seats were in states that Bush carried. The crux of Bainwol’s argument was that the election would be fought on Republican terrain and that while candidate and campaign quality, fundraising and message were important, terrain trumped all of these factors.
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