Quantitatively, there's no way Dold, the Republican who represents the most Democratic district, should be winning reelection. His redrawn district is around two fifths new to him and gave President Obama over 63 percent of the vote in 2008. It wouldn't have even voted for Dold in the stellar GOP year of 2010. Yet qualitatively, this race is no contest - in the other direction. Dold has run stellar ads featuring his mother to deflect the DCCC's Medicare attacks, Speaker Boehner's Congressional Leadership Fund is up with sharp ads hitting Democrat Brad Schneider on taxes and not releasing his tax returns, and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's Independence USA Super PAC is up praising Dold for being pro-choice and supporting "sensible gun laws."
Meanwhile, Schneider is spending the money he's worked quite hard to raise on lackluster Medicare ads with an awkward narrator - President Lyndon Johnson - that don't even mention Dold's name in the audio and feature Schneider approving the ad from a dark-lit room. This North Shore district likes its moderates, and in person Schneider comes
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