When Upstate New York county party chairs anoint candidates to replace departing GOP Rep. John McHugh in the next week or two, we will be two steps closer to understanding how the special election in this politically dead-even district will take shape. But, with no special election date set, it’s hard to know what national dynamics will shape the contest when voters ultimately go to the polls.
For Democrats, the question is whether popular state Sen. Darrel Aubertine, who already represents nearly half of the congressional district in Albany, will take the plunge. To listen to some Democrats, it’s Aubertine or bust, and there is no doubt party elders will choose Aubertine if he wants the nod. But others insist that either of two less well-known backups, former federal prosecutor Daniel French or former Oswego mayor John Sullivan, could be competitive as well. Between January and March, national Democrats took a completely unknown businessman named Scott Murphy to 50 percent plus one (actually, 726 to be exact) just across the Adirondacks in the 20th CD. Given that track record, it’s
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